5 picks I love at the AT&T Byron Nelson, according to a professional gambler

joaquin niemann swings

Our expert picker loves Joaquin Niemann.

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Only one event left before the season’s second major. Time to sharpen up the sticks.

Seven of the top-15 players in the world have committed to this week’s AT&T Bryon Nelson, including Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and the game’s current alpha, Scottie Scheffler. The venue is TPC Craig Ranch, in McKinney, Texas, which doubled as a dart board in 2021, with winning score of 25-under turned in by K.H. Lee.

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Though Lee has been in solid form of late, he’s been nowhere near as hot as Erick Lindgren. GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator is coming off yet another profitable showing, having taken Keegan Bradley to finish in the top 5 at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Bradley wound up in a tie for second, and Lindgren walked off with a $1,950 payout.

Our terms with Lindgren this week are the same as ever. We give him a $1,000 gambling budget (in play money), and he supplies us with his five favorite wagers. Check them out below.

(Looking to play any of these bets yourself? We teamed with BetMGM and the online sports book is offering a Risk-Free Bet of up to $1,000.)

Joaquin Niemann to win, +3,300 (wager: $200)

Despite his sparkling play this season, highlighted by a win at the Northern Trust, Niemann continues to fly under the radar. So says Lindgren, who looks for the Chilean to bag birdies in bunches on a vulnerable course.

Dustin Johnson to win +2,200 (wager: $200)

Who could forget that DJ is one of the game’s most gifted players, capable of leaving everybody in the dust? A lot of gamblers could, it seems, based on these odds. “We are seeing him fall to prices that we haven’t seen in a long time,” says Lindgren, who sees great value in a veteran thoroughbred.

Adam Scott top 5, +1,000 (wager: $200)

Another talented veteran overlooked by the betting public, Scott remains as a pure as swinger as anyone in the game. “This is a good week to take advantage of guys we haven’t seen much of lately, but we know how good they are,” Lindgren says.

Ryan Palmer top 10, +1,000 (wager: $200)

This is something of a home game for the native Texan, who briefly held the lead at the Valero and has put up some fine showings in the Lone Star State. On top of that, Lindgren says, this is a course that suits Palmer’s game.

Scott Piercy top 20, +600 (wager: $200)

Lindgren concedes that he has a soft spot for Piercy, thanks in part to a head-to-head match they once played at Shadow Creek, in Vegas. But with this wager, our prognosticator is using his head as well as his heart. “Scott likes the warm weather and he overachieved in Maryland last week,” Lindgren says. “I like him to get hot here.”


Josh Sens

Golf.com Editor

A golf, food and travel writer, Josh Sens has been a GOLF Magazine contributor since 2004 and now contributes across all of GOLF’s platforms. His work has been anthologized in The Best American Sportswriting. He is also the co-author, with Sammy Hagar, of Are We Having Any Fun Yet: the Cooking and Partying Handbook.