Tour Confidential: Dream matches, golf’s hardest holes and the Masters favorite
Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us @golf_com. This week we debate the golfer with the highest ceiling, the betting favorite at Augusta and match-play dreams for this week in Austin.
When defending Masters champion and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson met the press this week, he said he hasn’t chased distance like some other players because, well, his own formula seems to be working just fine, thank you. “When I’m at my best and I can’t beat someone, then I’ll try and change something,” Johnson said. “But as of right now, I feel like if I play my best golf, I feel like I can beat whoever I’m playing against.” Would you agree? In a dream scenario in which DJ, Bryson, Rahm, Rory, JT, Brooks, et al., are all firing on all cylinders, does DJ come out on top?
Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): Not quite! Still think Rory possesses the most raw talent — it’s just been a long while since we’ve seen his prowess in all its glory. Put another way, I’d take 2014 Rory over 2020 DJ. Of course, the clash we all want to see today is peak DJ vs. peak Bryson. DeChambeau might be the best of the bunch at staying competitive with his “B game.” I’m not sure we’ve even seen his A+ game yet, and when we do, he might win by double digits.
Michael Bamberger, senior writer: I think he said “whomever.” I think Dustin is the best of the best when he’s playing his best.
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Sean Zak, senior editor (@sean_zak): This is such a cop out answer, but I’d like to know the conditions. Bryson seems able to grind out tough conditions better than DJ. So does Brooks. But at a softer course? Gimme Dustin. If you needed one man to make a par on 18 anywhere, it’s probably DJ. Have I answered the question? It might be JT. That should tell you everything about the debate.
Dylan Dethier, senior writer (@dylan_dethier): Yes. Right now, Dustin Johnson’s best is better than anybody else’s. I think Bryson technically has a higher ceiling, but it’s more difficult to access. DJ’s in the zone more often. If that sounds vague, it should.
James Colgan, assistant editor (@jamescolgan26): This question makes me realize it’s been a while since we’ve seen Brooks Koepka at his absolute best. If you’re judging purely on skill, it’s probably DJ or Rory. But ultimately, it comes down to this: Brooks’ physical gifts put him in the conversation, but nobody this side of Tiger Woods has his mental game. If he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s coming out on top.
Johnson won earlier this year in Saudi Arabia, but in his three PGA Tour starts in 2021 he has just one top-10, at Riviera. Regardless of how Johnson (and others) plays between now and the Masters in two weeks — he has one more start, at the WGC-Dell Match Play, in Austin — does he deserve betting-favorite status at Augusta? If not, who does?
Bastable: Johnson’s recent starts do give me pause. He has broken 70 only twice in his last 10 competitive rounds, dating back to the Players, the WGC at Concession and his last two rounds at Riv. Match play isn’t the best format to judge a player’s form, but still very curious to see how he plays in his last Augusta tune-up.
Ultimately, though, if you’re handicapping the Masters, how do you look past Johnson’s stunning record at Augusta? Five top-10s in his last five starts. No reason to believe he won’t make that six in two weeks. Two green jackets in five months would also be a pretty neat trick.
Bamberger: Dustin comes and goes. He’s not Tiger. He’s more like Phil. I can’t imagine him coming to Augusta not ready.
Zak: What Michael said. No one has more confusing mini-droughts than DJ, and no one follows them with victories better than DJ. he’s done it many, many times. I’ll take the defending champ.
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Dethier: It’s been less than half a year since he absolutely dusted the field at Augusta. That shouldn’t be long enough for us to forget about it. Johnson’s the favorite. Bryson shouldn’t be far behind. Then Justin Thomas.
Colgan: It’s pretty hard to unseat a defending champion World No. 1 as the betting favorite at Augusta, and it only helps that DJ is only six months removed from the green jacket. Nobody is playing well enough to justify favorite status over him, even if he hasn’t played well of late. I do agree that Bryson is a no-brainer right behind him.
Speaking of Augusta, ESPN last week aired a documentary that pulled back the curtain on the 2021 Masters; the film was co-produced by Augusta National. If the famously secretive club gave you unfettered access to produce your own documentary on one part of the club or tournament’s lore, what would you focus on?
Bastable: The membership selection process has long fascinated me. What exactly does it take to make the cut? Take me inside the board room when the membership committee is debating its final decisions — with Nantz calling the action, in hushed tones, from balcony seating.
Bamberger: The Jones-Roberts relationship. Not Matt and Jimmy. Bob and Cliff.
Zak: I’d focus on their property acquisition around town. Augusta, GA is quietly and surely becoming Augusta National, GA. Its own township. No one can deny it, but we know very, very little about it.
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Dethier: “The most expensive Wendy’s in America”? I like Zak’s idea. But if I’m in charge of the cameras I’m headed to the grill room at one of Augusta’s four other yearly tournaments. That’s where we’d see what the club and its characters are actually like. The mystique is probably more interesting, than the reality though.
Colgan: Cliff Roberts is so iconized in Masters lore, he practically sounds like a comic book figure. I’d love to hear every detail of how he built the Masters (and by extension, Augusta National) into golf lore. That, or a Chef’s Table-style deep dive into Masters concessions. It’s time to peel back the onion on pimento cheese.
Matt Jones took home this week’s Honda Classic with a dominant five-shot victory. But the tournament was also an off-week for many top pros; just six top-50 players teed it up and the event’s strength of field continues to plummet in its new spot on the schedule. Should the Tour be trying to revitalize the field at PGA National?
Bamberger: Just the weirdness of the schedule this year. I don’t think the Tour needs to do anything too drastic. All these events have a Darwinian element to them. Honda has had many great years, too. What Matt Jones did was neat to see, no matter who he had to beat down the stretch. Or should that be whom? I’m bad at that.
Zak: Weirdness of the schedule every year! The sameness of the stops and the guaranteed importance of WGCs and elevated events means the Honda just doesn’t mean much to top 50 players. It is what it is. They’d all tell you that.
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Dethier: Not every tournament can be above average. To Sean’s point, we (and the top pros) have so many tournaments that we (and the top pros) are required to care about that something has to get left behind. With this year’s schedule, the Honda became an easy skip — and it may continue that way, too. If the Tour wants to prioritize the Honda in particular, it can, but there’s a reality they’re dealing with: If every week is extra, special, none of them are.
Colgan: The Honda falls during a really unfortunate stretch in the golf calendar for a non-major event. If the Tour wants to goose interest (which it should), it should look into switching the tournament dates. But the logistical ends created by a schedule shift likely don’t justify the means.
Bastable: Yep, too many weeks on the schedule means too much competition for the best players. Eventually the system catches up to just about every regular Tour stop. Also, it’s a tough, tough course. Not everyone’s cup of tea.
Next up: the always intriguing WGC-Dell Match Play. The match-play gods have empowered you to select any two players to meet in the finals. Who ya got?
Bastable: See above: DJ vs. Bryson would be a blast, on several levels, but for the sake of variety, I’ll go with a reprise of the Rory vs. Reed battle from the 2016 Ryder Cup. That duel remains the gold standard for fist-pumping, spine-tingling, roar-inducing match-play drama. A sequel, albeit in a slightly more subdued atmosphere, would be great fun.
Bamberger: Taking the question literally, Jack (1975 version) and Tiger (2000 edition.)
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Zak: Spieth vs. DeChambeau. I think most of the crowd would be on Jordan’s side, but forcing people to watch 18 holes of Bryson would help them learn a lot.
Dethier: Rory vs. Bryson. And then a rematch in the final pairing at Augusta National.
Colgan: This one’s a layup: Brooks vs. Bryson! The trash talk alone would leave Golf Twitter in flames. Honorable mention: Reed vs. Xander to settle the talk amongst the boys, once and for all.
The fearsome Bear Trap at PGA National (holes 15, 16 and 17) showed its teeth again at the Honda, playing a cumulative 72 over par in Saturday’s third round alone. What’s the toughest three-hole stretch you’ve ever played?
Bastable: Gosh, there have been so many, as much due to my woeful play as the challenge of the holes themselves. Nos. 10-12 at Bethpage Black come to mind: a trio of punishing par-4s that cumulatively play nearly 1,300 yards from the middle tees. If I wasn’t hacking out of the rough on any of the holes, I was hitting a 3-wood into the green, and probably missing into a deep, scary bunker.
Bamberger: Anytime I am in position to break 80 through 15 holes, and that hasn’t been often, those last three holes. I am thinking now of a double-digit score I made on my 17th once in Clementon, N.J. And all I needed was to close with two 5s. It’s not easy, getting to the house.
Course Rater Confidential: What’s the most exciting or intimidating closing stretch in the world?
Zak: Whistling Straits final three holes, into a northbound wind. That’s 16 and 17, straight into the fan and the long-as-hell 18th with a left-to-right breeze. With the big right miss in play, you’re asking for double-double-triple.
Dethier: I tackled Erin Hills from 8100 yards this summer and by the time I got to No. 16 I’d already played more than a round’s worth of golf holes. The fatigue combined with the 675-yard 18th playing into the wind gave me plenty to remember.
Colgan: Everybody says Nos. 15-17 at Bethpage Black are the hardest stretch of holes on the course, but I’ll respectfully disagree. I’ll go to my grave believing no three holes in golf are harder than Nos. 11-13 — two long par-4s followed by a 600-yard par-5 — on a hot summer afternoon. By the time you reach the famed closing stretch, Bethpage has already taken your soul. The real victims are claimed on 11, 12 and 13.
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