Jon Rahm leads by two. But casinos are declaring he’s practically won.

Jon Rahm on Friday on the 1st hole at the Mexico Open.

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Through 36 holes at the Mexico Open, Jon Rahm leads by two. But at the casinos?

There, he’s practically already won. 

“Yeah, pretty crazy,” said Brady Kannon, a golf betting analyst for the Vegas Stats and Information Network.

Here’s why. According to odds from BetMGM, Rahm opened as an overwhelming favorite, at +450 (bet $100 to win $450); second was Abraham Ancer, at +1,600. Then Rahm, the world No. 2, did what oddsmakers thought he would at Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course in Mexico, Ancer and other pre-tournament favorites didn’t, and the odds gap between Rahm and the field on Friday night grew to a ridiculous number. 

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At BetMGM, he is now listed at -135. (You’d have to bet $135 to win $100.) And the next closest players in the odds are Alex Smalley and Patrick Reed, at +1,200. The sportsbooks simply don’t think you’ll bet on anyone else but Rahm, so the odds have shrunk and shrunk on him in order to entice you wager elsewhere.

“The current odds go in line with the pre-tournament discrepancy where Rahm was an overwhelming favorite,” Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino vice president of risk management and golf oddsmaker, told GOLF.com in an email. “ … Now that the closest pre-tournament contenders are not in contention, Rahm’s small lead is exacerbated in the current odds that you don’t normally see weekly.”

A look at the live odds on Friday suggested you could get some value betting on anyone but Rahm. Then again, there’s no reason to believe he’ll stumble, and money is money. Still, Smalley is two back, and Reed is three, and they’ll bring you $1,200 on a $100 bet. From there, the odds get higher, and the payouts bigger — while the stroke deficit is not insurmountable. 

Also three back are Cameron Champ, Adam Long, Andrew Novak, Trey Mullinax and Brandon Hagy, and their odds are: Champ, +1,400; Long, +2,000; Novak, +3,300; Mullinax, +3,300; and Hagy, +4,000. Four back are Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Kurt Kitayama, Scott Brown, Hank Leboida and Jonathan Byrd, and their odds are: Rai, +3,300; Riley, +3,300; Kitayama, +5,000; Brown, +6,600; Leboida, +6,600; and Byrd, +8,000. 

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Count Kannon among those looking lower down the leaderboard — and odds board — though he did his betting before the tournament. 

“I’m pretty sure I have seen minus money at the halfway point before but obviously pretty rare,” he wrote in an email to GOLF.com. 

“Hoping it doesn’t cash for Jon Rahm as I have Adam Long at 60-1 and Alex Smalley at 90-1.” 

How to bet on the Mexico Open

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Nick Piastowski

Nick Piastowski

Golf.com Editor

Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.