At this week’s Open Championship at Royal St. George’s, who does the journalists and betting analysts like? Or the caddie? Or the old-school gambler? Gimme the facts, storylines and trends. Gimme that inside-the-ropes look. Gimme your gut feeling.
You bet, bettor.
Welcome to GOLF.com’s new gambling advice column, where we’ve assembled a panel of those aforementioned experts to make three “best bets.” A real-life professional bettor here will then heed that advice, add his acumen and wager his own cash. It’s not unlike what you do through texts and Google searches — except now it’s all in one place.
Our hope is to help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook or through free-to-play Chirp Golf, an app from our parent company that is available in the App Store and at Google Play.
Now, on to some facts, the expert picks, the bettor’s best bets and info on how to bet for free.
The facts
This week’s tournament: Open Championship at Royal St. George’s, Sandwich, England.
TV:
Thursday: 1:30 a.m.-4:30 a.m. ET, Peacock Premium; 4 a.m.-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3 p.m.-4 p.m.
Friday: 1:30 a.m.-4:30 a.m. ET, Peacock Premium; 4 a.m.-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3 p.m.-4 p.m.
Saturday: 5 a.m.-7 a.m. ET, Golf Channel; 7 a.m.-3 p.m., NBC
Sunday: 4 a.m.-7 a.m. ET, Golf Channel; 7 a.m.-2 p.m., NBC
Weather (weather.com): Thursday, partly cloudy, 71 degrees, 16 mph N wind; Friday, sunny, 70 degrees, 14 mph NNE wind; Saturday, sunny, 68 degrees, 14 mph NNE wind; sunny, 73 degrees, 7 mph NNE wind
Defending champion: Shane Lowry (2019 at Royal Portrush; 2020 event was canceled)
Top 10 in odds (via BetMGM): Jon Rahm, +800; Brooks Koepka, +1,600; Xander Schauffele, +1,600; Jordan Spieth, +1,800; Justin Thomas, +2,000; Rory McIlroy, +2,000; Dustin Johnson, +2,200; Louis Oosthuizen, +2,800; Bryson DeChambeau, +3,000; Patrick Cantlay, +3,000; Tyrrell Hatton, +3,000; Viktor Hovland, +3,000.
Expert picks
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Nick Piastowski, GOLF.com, @nickpia
Bet 1: Sergio Garcia, top 10, +550. I came across this stat from the Fairway Finders podcast, which interested me greatly: Sergio has 10 top 10s in 23 Open Championships played, including two at Royal St. George’s. I like that.
Bet 2: Rory McIlroy, top 10, +220. Another stat, this one from Justin Ray: In eight of the past nine times McIlroy has missed a cut, he’s finished in the top 20, and three of those nine times, he’s won. Rory missed the cut last week. Let’s go.
Bet 3: Brendan Grace, top 10, +700. Stat three! According to the Open Championship website, Grace has played in the first two rounds with the eventual winner in the past two tournaments. This year, I think Grace does it again, only it’s Grace who finishes top 10, if not higher.
Jessica Marksbury, GOLF.com, @Jess_Marksbury
Bet 1: Brooks Koepka, top 10, +160. I know he said he isn’t overly fond of the course, but his recent results can’t be denied: three top 10s in his past four Opens, and 12 top 7s in his past 17 major appearances. I’m not going to bet against him now!
Bet 2: Lucas Herbert, top 20, +350. Winner of the Irish Open, T4 at the Scottish Open. Herbert is on a links-golf run!
Bet 3: Justin Rose, top 20, +300. Rose tends to turn it on at major championships, and he’s notched top 20s in his past two appearances at the Open.
Brady Kannon, host, Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN), @lasvegasgolfer
Bet 1: Jordan Spieth, top 10, +175. Current form is excellent, Open form is great. He’ll find more fairways with their width and the softer conditions. His creativity and short game will allow him to gain on the rest of the field.
Bet 2: Brooks Koepka, top 10, +160. Brooks has been the most dominant player in the world in majors for the past five years or so. He comes off of a second at the PGA and a fourth at the U.S. Open. He’ll find a way to get there again.
Bet 3: Patrick Reed, top 10, +300. Very similar reasoning to Spieth. Wider fairways, short game and creativity. Similar storyline as far as what is needed to win and what is presented at Augusta National. Yeah, both Spieth and Reed have done OK there, too.
Wes Reynolds, host, Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN), @WesReynolds1
Bet 1: Jordan Spieth, to-win, +1,800. Personally bet this at 20-1. Spieth has been the most consistent of all the top players this season. The 2017 winner of the Claret Jug is one of three players (Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy) to have three top 10 finishes in the past five Open Championships. Spieth ranks fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach, seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, eighth for Strokes Gained: Short Game (Putting + Around the Green), and No. 1 for Strokes Gained: Total over the past 50 rounds.
Bet 2: Brooks Koepka over Louis Oosthuizen, -120. Kind of a cheaper price here as many bettors are flocking to Oosthuizen off back-to-back runner-up finishes at major championships. That said, he is a 50-1/60-1 type of player now priced at 25-1 in the market. I will take one of the world’s five best players here.
Bet 3: Rory McIlroy over Justin Thomas -110. While Thomas finished in the top 10 in the Scottish Open and Rory missed the cut, JT has never finished in the top 10 at The Open. McIlroy, who is always honest and candid with the press, seemed very confident despite the fact he has been out of form. Rory has been waiting two years for redemption after that disaster at Royal Portrush.
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John Rathouz, PGA Tour caddie and Caddie Network contributor, @rathouz
Bet 1: Robert Macintyre over Will Zalatoris, -120. Willy Z has cooled off a bit, and even though he has been killing it in the majors, this will be his first Open. That’s pretty much the reason Robby Mac is favored here, and I’m here for it. Dude has never missed a cut in a major (6 for 6), including a T6 at the 2019 Open. Not much will surprise him this week. Only concern would be how the lefty handles the plethora of right-to-left holes in the wind at RSG.
Bet 2: Marc Leishman top 10, +600. Coming off one of his best driving weeks in a long time and to the major championship in which he has his most top 10s (three). At 37 and with eight Opens under his belt, Leishman is a perfect longer-odds candidate to get in the mix and notch his seventh career top 10 in a major.
Bet 3: Patrick Reed over Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau, +165. Reed has made the cut in four of his six Opens (all top 30s), is coming in with a win on the year and playing a course that rewards drawers of the golf ball. Finau has been so solid in the majors and been better at the Open than Reed. But he has missed his past two cuts on Tour, and RSG might not be as good a course for him comparatively. This will be Scheffler’s first Open.
The “old-school” gambler, an “old-school” gambler, @notthefakeW
Bet 1: Xander Schauffele, to-win, +1,600. How many majors must a man play well in before you can call him a champ? That is not a Dylan lyric. It’s a serious question. The answer is that it’s finally Xander’s time.
Bet 2: Branden Grace, top 10, +700. There but for the grace of Grace goes my money. The man always seems to show up in the biggies. He’ll be right there on Sunday afternoon.
Bet 3: Jason Day, top 10, +700. That balky back is always a question mark. But he has been in fine form, and there’s warm weather in the forecast, which should help ease any aches and pains.
The pro bettor’s best bets
Erick Lindgren. Lindgren, the 2008 World Series of Poker Player of the Year, has won more than $10.5 million in poker tournament earnings and is an avid sports bettor. @EdogPoker
Bet 1: Jordan Spieth, to-win, +1,800. At the Open, I look for links experience, which generally means veterans. Jordan is a young guy with a veteran game. At these odds, I love him.
Bet 2: Richard Bland, top 20, +700. Over-performed at the U.S. Open. Looking for the Englishman to do the same at home.
Bet 3: Branden Grace over Justin Rose, -105. Plays a great, piercing ball-flight, perfect for the Open. Plus, he always seems to be there in the majors. Rose is no slouch, but he’s been hit or miss for a long stretch now.
How to bet on the Open Championship — for free!
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