3M Open picks to win: Who the experts and a gambler are betting on

Matthew Wolff

Matthew Wolff hits a tee shot at the Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this month.

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At this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, who does the journalists and betting analysts like? Or the caddie? Or the old-school gambler? Gimme the facts, storylines and trends. Gimme that inside-the-ropes look. Gimme your gut feeling. 

You bet, bettor. 

Welcome to GOLF.com’s gambling advice column, where we’ve assembled a panel of those aforementioned experts to make three “best bets.” A real-life professional bettor here will then heed that advice, add his acumen and wager his own cash. It’s not unlike what you do through texts and Google searches — except now it’s all in one place. Now, on to some facts, the expert picks and the bettor’s best bets.

How to bet on the 3M Open

Looking to make a (legal!) wager yourself? We teamed with BetMGM, and the online sportsbook is offering a “Bet $20 Win $100” promotion regardless of your wager’s outcome, as well as a “Risk-Free Bet” up to $600.

The facts 

This week’s tournament: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minn. 

TV: Thursday, 2:30-6:30 p.m., Golf Channel; Friday, 2:30-6:30 p.m., Golf Channel; Saturday, 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel, 3-6 p.m., CBS; Sunday, 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel, 3-6 p.m., CBS.

Weather (weather.com): Thursday, partly cloudy, 94 degrees, 10 mph S wind; Friday, mostly sunny, 97 degrees, 9 mph S wind; Saturday, partly cloudy, 95 degrees, 10 mph W wind; Sunday, mostly sunny, 94 degrees, 9 mph NW wind 

Defending champion: Michael Thompson

Top 10 in odds (via BetMGM): Dustin Johnson, +750; Louis Oosthuizen, +1,400; Tony Finau, +1,400; Patrick Reed, +1,800; Bubba Watson, +3,000; Cameron Tringale, +3,000; Matthew Wolff, +3,000; Sergio Garcia, +3,000; Cameron Davis, +3,500; Emiliano Grillo, +3,500; Robert MacIntyre, +3,500. 

Expert picks

The sportsbook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino.
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Nick Piastowski, GOLF.com, @nickpia

Bet 1: Matthew Wolff, top five, +600. The 2019 champ here will contend this week. 

Bet 2: Cameron Tringale, top 10, +250. The public likes him, so I’m going to follow their lead. Very low odds, though. 

Bet 3: Luke List, top 10, +450. He was fourth at the John Deere and fifth at the Barbasol. The hot play continues. 

Jessica Marksbury, GOLF.com, @Jess_Marksbury

Bet 1: Bubba Watson top 10, +300. After having to spend Open Championship week at home, Watson should be well-rested — and hungry. 

Bet 2: Matthew Wolff, top 20, +140. Wolff was T12 here last year and showed signs of life with a T15 at the U.S. Open.

Bet 3: Patrick Reed, top 10, +150. After missing the cut at the Open, Reed will have something to prove.

Brady Kannon, host, Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN), @lasvegasgolfer

Bet 1: Bubba Watson, top 20, +140. Bubba had been playing so well before having to pull out of the Open Championship because of contact tracing. The time off may just serve him well coming into this week, and I’ll bank on his hot play continuing. I also believe the course correlates with TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), where he has played well for so many years and won three times.

Bet 2: Keegan Bradley, top 20, +150. Bradley had been in excellent form, with two top 10 and top 20 finishes back in April and May. He missed two straight cuts in June but then turned it around with a 14th at the Rocket Mortgage. I like the fact that he missed the cut (only by one shot) at the Open Championship because that means he’s had an extra couple of days to adjust back in the United States. This tournament should be a birdie fest, similar to the Rocket Mortgage, and I expect Bradley’s good form to show up again. He drives it long and straight, hits a ton of greens and ranks fourth on Tour in SG: Approach. If the putter shows up, so will Keegan Bradley on the first page of the leaderboard.

Bet 3: Ryan Armour, top 20, +400. In two of the most recent weaker field events, the Palmetto Championship and the Barbasol last week, Armour has finished inside the top 10 in each. He drives it extremely straight and is one of the Tour’s best putters. I think that combination and his recent form, along with a weaker field again this week, will have him finding more success. He also has incentive, ranking 135th in the FedExCup rankings but needing to get to 125th to qualify for the playoffs.

Wes Reynolds, host, Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN), @WesReynolds1

Bet 1: Bubba Watson, top 10, +300. The unexpected week off likely does Bubba some good. After his Sunday collapse at the Travelers, Watson finished sixth the following week in Detroit, and his score of 131 over the weekend tied for best in the field. 

Bet 2: Jhonattan Vegas, top 20, +225. The Venezuelan leads this week’s field for both SG: Off the Tee and GIR Gained. He has also gained at least +2.1 SG: Approach in four of his past five starts. Putting is always the weak part of his game, but he did gain +3.2 SG: Putting two weeks ago on the bentgrass at TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic.

Bet 3: Bo Van Pelt, top 20, +1,100. BVP currently sits 152nd in the FedEx Cup standings. He finished runner-up at the Palmetto several weeks back and needs another high finish to get on the right side of the 125. Having his extended family come down from Indiana to Lexington to see him play the Barbasol last week likely put him in a great frame of mind going forward.

Ryan Palmer hits out of the sand during last year's Charles Schwab Challenge.
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John Rathouz, PGA Tour caddie and Caddie Network contributor, @rathouz

Bet 1: Emiliano Grillo over Robert MacIntyre, -125. Both had great Open Championships, but I like Grillo in this spot because of a T3 at TPC Twin Cities last year. Mac is getting more and more comfy but is coming off two weeks of links golf in his backyard. 

Bet 2: Doug Ghim, top 10, +400. Mentally tough player who has strung three solid tournaments in a row and is fresh after a week off. He finished T18 here last year. 

Bet 3: Will there be a playoff? Yes +300. TPC Twin Cities has featured a playoff the past two times the Champions Tour has teed it up there. A history of bunched leaderboards, a weaker field and a par-5 finisher over water feel like the right mix of variables to produce a playoff.

The “old-school” gambler, an “old-school” gambler, @notthefakeW 

Bet 1: Dustin Johson, to-win, +750. Might jet lag be an issue? It might. But given that placid gaze and that unhurried gait, you get the sense that DJ doesn’t know or care what time zone he’s in anyway. As for the “zone,” he’s not exactly in it. But his game has been steadily improving in recent weeks.

Bet 2: Matt Wolff, top five, +600. No cross-Atlantic trip for Wolff last week. He should be tan, ready and rested.

Bet 3: Cameron Tringale, top 20. +140. Rock-solid player in a relatively weak field. Yes, the payout is modest. But so is the ask.

The professional bettor’s best bets 

Erick Lindgren. Lindgren, the 2008 World Series of Poker Player of the Year,  has won more than $10.5 million in poker tournament earnings and is an avid sports bettor. @EdogPoker

Bet 1: Cameron Champ, to-win, +12,500. My focus this week is on talented guys who didn’t make the trip to England last week. Champ is 142nd in Fed Ex Cup rankings, so he’s got extra motivation.

Bet 2: Matt Wolff, top five, +600. I like him to win but can’t pass up the 6-1 odds here.

Bet 3: Cam Davis, top three, +500. Feel like he’s just getting started. Don’t miss out.

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Nick Piastowski

Nick Piastowski

Golf.com Editor

Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.