2025 Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy last month at the Players Championship.
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He led this column for the 2021 PGA Championship.
And for the 2022 Open Championship.
And for the 2023 Masters.
And for the 2023 U.S. Open.
And for the 2023 Open Championship.
And for the 2024 Masters.
And for the 2024 Open Championship.
And every time, Rory McIlroy didn’t win. So why do it again, for the “2025 Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Augusta National,” brought to you by GOLF.com? Haven’t I learned?
No, apparently not. This might be the year McIlroy wins his first major since 2014. This might be the year, after 16 previous starts, that he wins the Masters. The game is there — he’s worked on his touch, without sacrificing his muscle. The form is there — he’s won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Players Championship. The mentality is there — he’s adopting more of the Scottie Scheffler steady approach.
This should be the year.
But we’ve written that before.
With that, members of our staff have each made to-win and sleeper selections to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2025 Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch
Josh Berhow
To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +2200. I’m finding it really hard not to go with Rory to end his major drought, but I’ll let him prove it before I pick him. The cream always rises to the top at the Masters — look at the past decade’s worth of winners — so I won’t get too cute here. Give me Bryson to win his first green jacket. He’s coming off his best finish there and will take advantage of a field that has two other favorites (Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele) still a touch rusty following time off with injuries. (P.S. — I really like Collin Morikawa this week too.)
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +5000. I like Joaquin Niemann here, but his odds don’t suggest he’s much of a deep sleeper. Instead, I’ll take Russell Henley, who is ranked No. 7 in the world but doesn’t have odds like it. He’s always played OK here (four top-25s in eight starts) and is just starting to play the best major golf of his career — his three major top-10s are all from the past two years, including his past two majors played. He’s had a good season and won a month ago. Why not Russ?
Adam Christensen
To-win: Collin Morikawa, +1600. It’s tough to choose among the trio of Scheffler, McIlroy and Morikawa at the top. All three have been playing fantastic golf this year, but Morikawa has managed to get in the top three on the odds list despite not winning since October of 2023. His golf has been consistently superb, and the golf gods tend to reward that level of play eventually. Since his odds are the longest out of the three, I think he is the favorite to bet.
Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka, +8000. When looking at sleepers for the Masters, I like to pick players who I think can survive the nerve-racking “I’m leading on the back nine at Augusta” moment. Straka has played in big events and has been consistently solid over the past two years. If he can miss in the right spots and have a hot week around and on the green, I think he can handle that back-nine moment.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2000. Did you forget about this guy? Just because he got a little rib injury, or whatever? Did you forget that he’s won two of the past three majors? That he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in a major in three years? That he’s nearly won this thing before? Look, 77-81 on the weekend at the Players was admittedly a bit of misdirection. But that just means we’re bagging more value here. (And maybe stuff in a little Lowry 40-1 just for kicks.)
Sleeper pick: Why stop at one sleeper? I’ll give you a couple mid-level guys who I think will end up inside the top 10: Russell Henley (+5000) and Corey Conners (+6500). Keep scrolling to get to Daniel Berger (+11000), Patrick Reed (+9000) and Sergio Garcia (+9000). And if we’re talking like, top-40 plays? Why not spice up your week with a little Matt McCarty (+40000) and [grins very, very wide] Fred Couples? Happy hunting.
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Alex Gelman
To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1600. This is exactly what golf needs. The best young player in golf winning on golf’s biggest stage. Ludvig has got all the tools in the bag to win a green jacket. He was also just featured on “Warming Up” with Dylan Dethier. Give me Ludvig!
Sleeper pick: Jose Luis Ballester +100000. This past summer, he won the U.S. Amateur and found himself in the Masters. An amateur has never won the Masters before. Why not Ballester?
Jack Hirsh
To win: Rory McIlroy: +650. There’s just no way this guy doesn’t win the Masters. He’s won twice already this year and I don’t think he’s even really had a peak week yet. If he figures out the driver next week, he’ll finally get the Masters monkey off his back. This is a pick with the heart and not the mind, but the heart wants what the heart wants.
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley: +11000. These odds are a joke right? Nonsense with the poor course history argument — he’s finished in the top 25 the past two years and he’s already got two top-6s this year. I think Keegan contends at Augusta this year and makes his job as Ryder Cup captain so much harder.
Jessica Marksbury
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. His putter showed encouraging signs of life in Houston, where he posted his best finish of the season thus far (T2!), and when Scheffler’s flatstick is on, there’s no stopping him.
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +6500. His past three finishes prior to the Valero: 3, T6, T8. In seven appearances at Augusta National, he has three top-10s. Feels like pretty good odds given Conners’ current form and past Masters resume.
Maddi MacClurg
To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1600. How can you not bet on Ludvig Aberg for the Masters? His elite ball-striking lends itself to both his approach off the tee and into the greens, which is key to creating birdie opportunities at ANGC. And don’t forget that Aberg almost walked home with the green jacket last year — which was his first appearance at Augusta National.
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +5000. If he’s seventh in the world right now, is he really a sleeper pick? With four top-10 finishes, including a win at Bay Hill, Russell Henley is a solid choice to win the green jacket. After nine appearances at the Masters, he’s gained a ton of local knowledge, giving him a leg up on the field. He also has incredible touch on and around the greens — which will come in handy while navigating Augusta’s punishing greenside bunkers.
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Kris McCormack
To-win: Jon Rahm, +1400. Rahm is winning the Masters. He is a previous champion, knows the golf course well, and has been playing well this season. He is really comfortable with where his game is currently and still ranked 26th in the Official World Golf Rankings, despite not earning any points from LIV events.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Collin Morikawa, +1600. He’ll win here eventually, so why not this year? Not playing since the Players is a concern, but if his putter is on, he’ll contend.
Sleeper pick: Daniel Berger, +11000. Berger’s in good form. He’s a good ball-striker. He’s got a good demeanor. I’m in.
Josh Schrock
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +650. If not now, then when? Rory is playing statistically the most complete golf in his career. His decision to improve his course management a la Scottie Scheffler has paid dividends so far, and it should keep him in the thick of things at Augusta. I think he starts Sunday one or two back but vanquishes his Masters demons and gets it done. It’s time.
Sleeper pick: Justin Rose +11000. Rose has always played well at Augusta National. While he hasn’t been in top form so far this year, the azaleas have a way of getting old lions to turn back the clock and roar one final time.
Josh Sens
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +650. The “golf gods” don’t exist, but if they did, they’d realize that Rory has been punished enough here. He’s playing as well as ever. Time for it to finally happen.
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