We’ll call it the Rory riddle. Or the McIlroy mystery. Regardless, it’s a Kiawah conundrum. (I’ll put the thesaurus away now.)
At the Masters, just over five short weeks ago, Rory McIlroy was nowhere to be found. Unless you want to count the woods. The four-time major winner and 28-time winner worldwide was in the middle of a year-and-a-half winless drought, in the middle of a swing change, and, for a few minutes, in the middle of the trees, where during the first round, he hit his dad with a ball, and during the second round, he lost a ball. It would end up being his second straight stroke-play missed cut. (He failed to advance out of round-robin play at the Match Play, too.)
And then, four rounds and 274 strokes later, there McIlroy was. He won the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship. He’s now the betting favorite for the PGA Championship. From goat to GOAT. In a month.
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Wondering which McIlroy will show up? We can help. First, we answer that exact question. Then, members of our staff have each made a to-win bet using odds from DraftKings to help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook or through free-to-play Chirp Golf, an app from our parent company that is available in the App Store and at Google Play.
On to the analysis — and info on how to bet for free.
Why Rory McIlroy will win the PGA Championship?
Josh Sens: He will win because he has found something, and when a player with his gifts finds something, watch out. On top of that, he clearly has a comfort and discomfort level with certain courses and events (see Quail Hollow and Augusta National for that contrast) and we all know what he did last time the PGA was held at Kiawah. It wasn’t close.
Josh Berhow: Because he putted beautifully in his last start — a win at the Wells Fargo — and he’s going back to the place he dominated in 2012. Sure, that’s a long time ago, but nothing is more important in golf than current form, and Rory’s got that going for him, which is nice.
Nick Piastowski: Let’s just go Josh plus Josh here — horses for courses plays, and so does momentum. Can’t beat that, right …
Why Rory McIlroy won’t win the PGA Championship?
Josh Sens: He won’t win because winning is really, really hard, and even as one of the odds-on favorites, he has the odds stacked heavily against him
Josh Berhow: So he won in his last start? Big deal. Let’s not forget he’s missed the cut in two of his past four starts, and both MCs came in his biggest events of the past six months. And he didn’t just miss those cuts — he missed them badly, with a combined scoring average of 76. It would be a nice story if he returned to Kiawah and found magic once again, but fairytale endings don’t happen near as much as we’d like them to.
Nick Piastowski: I think that the win means that McIlroy is on the way back — but isn’t quite there yet. That one-over 72 in the first round at the Wells Fargo also jumps out at me.
Expert picks
7 things you MUST know to make money on golf betting
Alan Bastable
To-win: Abraham Ancer, +5500. Few players have been steadier over the last two months, with no finishes outside of the top 30 in last eight starts — including a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow and a 5th at Innisbrook in his last two starts. Ancer will get his first PGA Tour win in 2021 — why not at a major? If you don’t pick him to win, be sure to grab him at +450 to top-10.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Patrick Reed, +3,500. I like a gritty player with a strong short game to win this week, so Patrick Reed immediately grabs my attention. He’s second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and is one of the best/craftiest players around the greens, too. It’s also a major, and he rarely struggles in the big ones. He’s been no worse than T13 in his past four major starts.
James Colgan
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +5,000. Is Brooks Koepka fully healthy? Probably not! He looked hobbled (and not at all himself) in his performance at the Masters, which is a smart reason to stay away from him. That said, +5,000 odds for a player six months removed from contending for a PGA three-peat? That value might just be worth the risk.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,700. This PGA is particularly interesting because none of the front runners come in without some extra baggage. Was Xander Schauffele allergic to the lead on Sunday at Augusta? Sure. But he still might be the best player in the game. This is the week he climbs the mountain. (But maybe sprinkle in a top 10 bet just to make sure. …)
Jessica Marksbury
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +1,150. I just can’t imagine anyone having a better chance than Rory this week. Not only is he fresh off a victory at Quail Hollow, he’s a former champion at this very venue, and the ultra-long course seems like it will suit him even better (if that’s even possible) this time around. Bring on major victory No. 5!
Zephyr Melton
To-win: Jordan Spieth, +1,500. Jordan Spieth is back to doing Jordan Spieth things, and it feels like this is finally his time to complete the career grand slam. The small tweaks he made in his swing are paying dividends, and with the championship contested at the windblown Kiawah Resort, I like the shot-making Texan’s chances to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Matthew Fitzpatrick, +6,000. The major breakthrough happens this week. And when I looked at the 2012 leaderboard and saw three Englishmen in the top six (and Rory McIlroy from Northern Ireland winning), this pick began to look really good to me. (Could also be a sleeper at those odds.)
Tim Reilly
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