2023 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Royal Liverpool
Rory McIlroy on Monday at Royal Liverpool.
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“Golf is looking to someone to put their hand up and try. I want to be the guy that goes on and wins majors and wins majors regularly.” — Rory McIlroy, after his win at the 2014 Open Championship, via the New York Times
This, as they say, did not age well.
Of course, at the time, McIlroy had every reason to believe he’d win a few more of golf’s biggest tournaments. The 2014 Open, where he had led by seven at one point in the final round before winning by two, was his third major victory, and the then-25-year-old went on to win a fourth just a month later, at the PGA Championship. But then?
Close calls. Heartbreak. Nothing more.
Still, there’s hope. At least Vegas thinks you think that — McIlroy is the betting favorite going into this week’s Open, at Royal Liverpool. The reasons are obvious, too. Most notably, the firepower is there (he’s among the top 20 this season on the PGA Tour in five of the six Strokes Gained categories), and it’s not as if he hasn’t won at all.
Since the 2014 PGA, he’s picked up 16 victories on the PGA Tour, including last week, at the Scottish Open. He’s coming in with momentum.
“It’s nice to have the validation,” McIlroy said Sunday. “The validation; it’s great racking up top 5s, top 10s, but it’s much nicer heading away with a trophy on Sunday afternoon.
“It’s a great shot of confidence. … Having something fresh in my memory, if I hopefully find myself in a similar position next week where I’ve got a chance to win with nine holes to go, I can certainly draw on what I did here today; that I can get myself in the mix again.”
There’s more, too.
McIlroy’s quote at the start of this story came at Royal Liverpool.
Where he plays again this week.
With that, members of our staff have each picked a winner and a long shot. The hope is, of course, we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
On to our picks.
2023 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch
Ryan Barath
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. I’ve done it before, and I’m ready to do it again and put all my stock into Rory. He tends to heat up in the summer, and I feel that the time spent on links courses might just give him the extra jolt to carry him across the line. Also, considering he has won at Royal Liverpool before, how could I not pick him?
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +12,500. As a past champion, he knows how to handle the tough conditions links golf can dish out, and even as a PGA Tour Champions player, he continues to show up in big events. As most people have become aware at this point, Harrington is no slouch in the speed and driving distance department, and distance is always a skill that gets rewarded on tough courses. With a potential Ryder Cup spot on the line, I expect a motivated Padraig this week at Hoylake.
Alan Bastable
To-win: Scottie Sceffler, +900. Boring pick? Perhaps. But how do you not like his chances after SEVEN CONSECUTIVE top-five finishes, including a T3 at the Scottish? Here’s another fun stat: If Scheffler can finish top 12 or better at Hoylake (pretty much a lock), he will have finished top 12 in TWENTY CONSECUTIVE starts. Mind-blowing run.
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +12,500. The two-time Claret Jug winner has been burning up the senior circuit, made the cut in the past two majors and has been hitting the ball about as well as he has during any point in his career. Heck, not even sure if he qualifies as a sleeper!
Josh Berhow
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. I’ve had this week circled for Rory all year, for obvious reasons. He’s played well lately and, plus, with everything that’s happened over the past month — and with his close call at the Open last year — this just seems like his week. But storybook endings are easier said than done.
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +6,600. He tied for fifth the last time he played here and has had a very solid, consistent season. His missed cut at the U.S. Open has been his only one of the year in 14 starts. These are good odds for a guy who could easily hang around the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend.
James Colgan
To-win: Min Woo Lee, +5,000. Tiger Woods (famously) won at Royal Liverpool in 2006 without ever swinging a driver. So, why a player with VERY long odds and no PGA Tour wins as my Open Championship winner? I will answer simply: Have you ever seen Min Woo hit that 2-iron?
Sleeper pick: Seamus Power, +15,000. My heart says Liverpool local Matthew Jordan, but my head says Seamus Power may be better money at the same odds.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Scottie Scheffler will hold the 54-hole lead, Tyrrell Hatton (+2,800) will chase him down halfway through the final round, and Xander Schauffele (+2,200) will ultimately come away with the jug, getting me out of years of accumulated debt in the process.
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners (+10,000). Look at the leaderboards from ’06 and ’14, and look at the year-end Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats. This is a flusher’s course. Conners has played reasonably well at a couple Opens. I like him at this number.
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Nick Dimengo
To-win: Jordan Spieth, +2,000. It feels as if Spieth has had a down year, but the reality is that the three-time major champ has six top 10s this season — and I think he’s due for a big win. He knows what it takes to play on links courses, with wins at Royal Birkdale in this very event in 2017, and at the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay. While he may be boom-or-bust this week, I’m siding with his experience to get it done.
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. A last-minute addition to the Open’s field, Hojgaard qualified by finishing sixth at last week’s Scottish Open. Know what that tells me? Not only is he familiar with the conditions in the U.K., but he’s cool and calm under pressure. I’ll happily put money on the Dane and laugh all the way to the bank come Sunday evening.
Jack Hirsh
To win: Rory McIlroy, +750. I will not pick Rory. I will not pick Rory. I will not pick Rory. I will not pick Rory. Oh who am I kidding? The heart wants what the heart wants. Hoylake is where he won his previous Open Championship. He nearly won in L.A. He’s playing well. I can’t find a reason to pick against McIlroy.
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala +12,500: This pick is more based on how long his odds are than anything. Sahith Theegala, 33rd in the OWGR and winner of nearly $5 million this year, is way too good to be 125-1. He last finished inside the top 10 at Hilton Head in April, but he notched his first major top 10 at the Masters the week before. I say he bounces back in a big way.
Zephyr Melton
To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,500. It’s been a year of resurgence for Tommy Fleetwood. He’s placed in the top 20 in five of his past seven starts, has five top 10s on the season and is coming off a top-five finish at the U.S. Open. His OWGR is 22, but Data Golf has him ranked as the 14th-best player in the world at the moment. Why not this week for his breakthrough win?
Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +12,500. Denny McCarthy might not be a name casual fans are familiar with, but he’s been strong this season. Data Golf ranks him as the 13th-best player in the world as it stands, and he’s riding three top 10s in his past four starts. He’s one of the best putters in the world, and if he can do enough with his ball-striking, we might have another unlikely major winner.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: My picks are the same as Zephyr’s above — so I’ll offer up two more. For here, let’s go with Tyrrell Hatton (+2800). I like the ball-striking. I like the form.
Sleeper pick: Again, I like McCarthy — but I also like Pablo Larrazabel (+40,000). Those are some loooong odds for a player who’s won twice on the DP World Tour since the end of April.
Tim Reilly
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +900. He’s due for the ball to start dropping. He’s hitting the ball far too well this year not to walk away with a major win to show for it. After the Open, we’ll begin the career grand slam pursuit for Scheffler heading into 2024.
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +9,000. He’s worth putting money on at those odds. Bradley has been a consistent performer all season, and his confidence level has to be high after winning the Travelers in front of a home crowd.
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Braden Reed
To-win: Cameron Smith, +1,600. He’s the best putter on the planet, which I think gives us a repeat winner this year. The flatstick will always perform for him, and he’s trending upward everywhere else after his fourth-place finish at LACC and a win at LIV London. Tiger also repeated as champion the last time the Open was held at St. Andrews and Royal Liverpool consecutively, and I see Cam following in his footsteps.
Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +12,500. On the topic of hot putters, there hasn’t been a hotter putter on the PGA Tour than Denny. He’s been knocking on the door for the past month and a half, and while it might be bold to predict a major as his breakthrough, at 125-1, it’s hard not to love his value at that number.
Josh Sens
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. The dry spell in majors can’t go on forever, can it? Sure, it can. But it won’t. Rory has been too close too many times for the close calls to continue. The drought finally ends, on a course where he’s won before.
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +9,000. Part of me wants to say Joost Luiten, but that’s only because I like saying “Joost Luiten.” We know that putting is the one thing that has held Conners back. And we know that the Open is the major where putting often takes less primacy. These are long odds for a guy who gets his ball around as well as Conners.
Marley Sims
To-win: Viktor Hovland, +2,000. His play in the majors has been impressive — a tie for seventh at the Masters, a tie for second at the PGA, 19th at the U.S. Open — as was his victory last month at Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial tourney. He’s on his way to becoming a household name.
Sleeper pick: Davis Riley, +30,000. A pure ball-striker, he’s found some form of late, with four-straight made cuts. He’s bound to win a big one soon. Why not this week?
Jonathan Wall
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. Outside of Tiger in his prime, I’ve never felt more confident about a major pick: Rory’s going to win in a rout at Royal Liverpool. He’s finished no worse than T9 since the PGA Championship and continues to trend upward. It’s all coming together at the right time.
Sleeper pick: Billy Horschel, +35,000. It’s a dart throw … in the dark. Nothing about Horschel’s recent form screams contender, but we always see a name on the board at majors that we didn’t expect to see. Why not Horschel? He’s due to find his game.
Sean Zak
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,200. It’s about time I join this bandwagon in an official capacity.
Sleeper pick: Ewen Ferguson, +25,000. He’s on the move. He won the R&A Boys Amateur title at Hoylake in 2013. His name is on the big board of champions at RLGC, right between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. He’s worth a top 20 finish bet.
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