Ben Curtis knew what folks were saying. But he listened to just one.
”I know the names on the trophy, obviously, just from watching the British Open and growing up around the game,” Curtis told the New York Times at the time. ”I know I’m in great company and I feel like I don’t belong right now, but I know in my mind that I do. Many people are probably saying, well, he doesn’t really belong there, but I know I do, so that’s all that matters.”
Indeed.
But still.
Ahead of the 2003 Open Championship, Curtis had never won. He was ranked No. 396 in the world. According to the Times, he had never played the course (Royal St. George’s), and he met his caddie (Andy Sutton) just that week. And according to bettingoffers.org.uk, he was listed at 500-1 to win — and to that point in tracking back to 1984, the lowest odds an eventual champion had were 60-1 (Paul Lawrie in 1999, and John Daly in 1995).
But you know what happened: Curtis shot rounds of one-over 72, 72, 70 and 69, and he bested the field, with Thomas Bjorn and Vijay Singh finishing a stroke back and tying for second, and Tiger Woods and Davis Love III finishing two back and tying for third. And along the way, Curtis gave hope to a host of others.
Like perhaps Adri Arnaus. Or Callum Shinkwin. Or Michael Kim. All are listed at around 500-1 for this week’s Open, at Royal Liverpool.
With that, members of our staff have each picked a long shot. The hope is, of course, we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
On to our picks.
2023 Open Championship sleeper picks to watch
Ryan Barath
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +12,500. As a past champion, he knows how to handle the tough conditions links golf can dish out, and even as a PGA Tour Champions player, he continues to show up in big events. As most people have become aware at this point, Harrington is no slouch in the speed and driving distance department, and distance is always a skill that gets rewarded on tough courses. With a potential Ryder Cup spot on the line, I expect a motivated Padraig this week at Hoylake.
Alan Bastable
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +10,000. The two-time Claret Jug winner has been burning up the senior circuit, made the cut in the past two majors and has been hitting the ball about as well as he has during any point in his career. Heck, not even sure if he qualifies as a sleeper!
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +6,600. He tied for fifth the last time he played here and has had a very solid, consistent season. His missed cut at the U.S. Open has been his only one of the year in 14 starts. These are good odds for a guy who could easily hang around the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend.
James Colgan
Sleeper pick: Seamus Power, +15,000. My heart says Liverpool local Matthew Jordan, but my head says Seamus Power may be better money at the same odds.
Dylan Dethier
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners (+10,000). Look at the leaderboards from ’06 and ’14, and look at the year-end Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats. This is a flusher’s course. Conners has played reasonably well at a couple Opens. I like him at this number.
Nick Dimengo
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. A last-minute addition to The Open’s field, Hojgaard qualified by finishing 6th at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. Know what that tells me? Not only is he familiar with the conditions in the UK, but he’s cool and calm under pressure. I’ll happily put $100 on the Dane and laugh all the way to the bank come Sunday evening
Jack Hirsh
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala +12,500: This pick is more based on how long his odds are than anything. Sahith Theegala, 33rd in the OWGR and winner of nearly $5 million this year, is way too good to be 125-1. He last finished inside the top 10 at Hilton Head in April, but he notched his first major top 10 at the Masters the week before. I say he bounces back in a big way.
Zephyr Melton
Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +12,500. Denny McCarthy might not be a name casual fans are familiar with, but he’s been strong this season. Data Golf ranks him as the 13th-best player in the world as it stands, and he’s riding three top 10s in his past four starts. He’s one of the best putters in the world, and if he can do enough with his ball-striking, we might have another unlikely major winner.
Nick Piastowski
Sleeper pick: My pick is the same as Zephyr’s above — but I also like Pablo Larrazabel (+40,000). Those are some loooong odds for a player who’s won twice on the DP World Tour since the end of April.
Braden Reed
Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +12,500. There hasn’t been a hotter putter on the PGA Tour than Denny. He’s been knocking on the door for the past month and a half, and while it might be bold to predict a major as his breakthrough, at 125-1, it’s hard not to love his value at that number.
Tim Reilly
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +9,000. He’s worth putting money on at those odds. Bradley has been a consistent performer all season, and his confidence level has to be high after winning the Travelers in front of a home crowd.
Josh Sens
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +9,000. Part of me wants to say Joost Luiten, but that’s only because I like saying “Joost Luiten.” We know that putting is the one thing that has held Conners back. And we know that the Open is the major where putting often takes less primacy. These are long odds for a guy who gets his ball around as well as Conners.
Marley Sims
Sleeper pick: Davis Riley, +30,000. A pure ball striker, he’s found some form of late, with four-straight made cuts. He’s bound to win a big one soon. Why not this week?
Jonathan Wall
Sleeper pick: Billy Horschel, +35,000. It’s a dart throw … in the dark. Nothing about Horschel’s recent form screams contender, but we always see a name on the board at majors that we didn’t expect to see. Why not Horschel? He’s due to find his game.
Sean Zak
Sleeper pick: Ewen Ferguson, +25,000. He’s on the move. He won the R&A Boys Amateur title at Hoylake in 2013. His name is on the big board of champions at RLGC, right between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. He’s worth a top 20 finish bet.
