Tour Confidential: Tiger Woods, LIV Golf and other top Masters storylines

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us @golf_com. This week it’s all about Augusta National and the top storylines at the Masters.

Tiger Woods has a press conference scheduled for Tuesday at the Masters, so it’s safe to assume he’ll play as long as he’s healthy. It will be just his second start in nine months and first since his T45 at the Genesis Invitational in February. How well do you expect a 47-year-old Woods to play next week? Can he contend?

Josh Berhow, managing editor (@josh_berhow): Yes, he can definitely contend. Can he win? I’m not sure his game is that sharp at this point, given his limited schedule. He was 47th here last year, but let’s remember that it was his first start since his car accident and the fact that he even talked 72 holes — let alone made the cut — was surprising. He also, as expected, lost juice on the weekend and shot a pair of 78s to fall down the leaderboard. That’s pretty un-Tiger-like, even for the version we see these days. His Saturday 67 at Riviera earlier this year gave lots of reason for optimism.

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): IF Tiger’s healthy, yes he can contend, and, at this golf course, he can also win. He’s not the favorite to do that, nor is he expected to, but can he? Absolutely.

Josh Sens, senior writer, (@joshsens): It’s possible, of course, but a lot of things that are possible don’t happen. And it won’t happen here. He’ll make the weekend, and then, as they did last year, the hills will take their toll. I hope I’m wrong, and that we get a Sunday pairing of Tiger and Phil in the final group. Speaking of which: that would be an interesting line. I’m sure Vegas has it. Tiger vs. Phil for the week.

Sean Zak, senior writer (@sean_zak): If the bar for contention is Woods being within five shots when he turns to the back nine Sunday, no I don’t see it happening. I don’t think he’s capable of breaking par four-straight days, and that’s kind of what he’d need to do.

Name your best storyline for this 87th Masters.

Berhow: Remember back in 2015 or 2016 when we loved to use the Big 3 or Big 4 title to explain pro golf’s hierarchy? I think we have a Big 3 now with Rory, Rahm and Scheffler, and I’m anxious to see which one claims the throne. They all need this win for different reasons: Rory needs it to complete the career grand slam, Rahm so his number of major titles (still just one) properly reflects his incredible skill set, and Scheffler — trying to go back-to-back — to leave no doubt he’s the dude.

Colgan: The Georgia Peach Ice Cream Sandwich is BACK!!!!! That’s both the biggest AND the best storyline here. Too inside baseball? Ok — I’ll zoom out a little further. The first LIV-PGA Tour war taking place at Augusta National ain’t half-bad.

Sens: Can Bernhard Langer reach the lengthened 13th in two? Nah. It’s the LIV subplot for sure. A reprise of Reed and Rory? A Tiger/Phil pairing? The entire event is too polite for the tensions to play out in the open, but we know they exist among some players, and plenty of people will be watching through a Tour vs. LIV lens. Among other things, it will be a kind of Rorschach test: everyone looking at the same thing and drawing different conclusions about the two tours. But particularly about the prominent LIV players and whether they have lost their edge, etc.

Zak: The boys above have covered it all!

How about an underrated storyline no one is talking about?

Berhow: Cam Smith has seemingly been destined to win a Masters. He’s a great ball-striker and superb putter, which is what you need to do well at Augusta National. He’s had four top 10s in his five starts there (including his last three), but the Champion Golfer of the Year has been flying under the radar since he went to LIV. Now he’s back in the spotlight again. How will he perform?

Colgan: Love that, Josh. Cam Smith is a deeply underrated storyline. So is, strangely enough, Tiger Woods. The early stages of last year’s tournament were consumed by Tigermania, but this year feels notably less hyped.

Sens: Phil’s return after his self-imposed exile last year. I don’t think anyone is expecting him to contend, but this was always his happy place. And he has said he thinks he still has a major or two in him. How will he perform since becoming the poster child for golf’s polarization? I think an MRI would reveal a sizable chip on his shoulder heading into this year’s Masters. I’m curious to see how he carries himself, not to mention how he scores.

Zak: Brooks Koepka suddenly looks like he might be Brooks Koepka again. I think there’s a short list of LIV players who could actually strike fear in the rest of the field, and he’s on it, alongside Dustin Johnson and Cam Smith. 

There are plenty favorites to win this week, among them defending champion Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. Are you taking that trio to win, or the field?

Berhow: I’m taking that trio, but I like Scottie the best out of that group. Remember he won by three last year — and that was with a four-putt on the 72nd hole. He hasn’t slowed down since.

Colgan: Give me the field! Those three are all awesome, they’ve all played great this year, but this is the hardest tournament in golf to win — and 66 percent of that grouping has never done it!

Sens: Agreed, James. If it’s a straight-up bet, you take the field. Smith. Spieth. Cantlay. Schauffele. DJ. Burns. Im. On and on. Of course, any of the big three could easily step on their throats. But there are just too many other guys capable of doing it to dismiss their numbers.

Zak: No one is talking about Collin Morikawa. That will feel crazy in one week when he’s wearing a new jacket. 

Name the major-less player who has the best chance to grab their first this week.

Berhow: We’ve been jotting down names like Schauffele, Cantlay and Hovland in this space for a couple of years now, and here we are again. Here’s a couple more. Sam Burns missed two straight cuts at the Genesis and Bay Hill, but he’s found his form lately and is coming off that Match Play win. He’s missed the cut here in his only appearance. One major-less player I’m looking forward to seeing is Max Homa. He’s taken his game to another level this year but is still looking for his first top 10 in a major. So, long answer longer: I’ll take Xander.

Colgan: Xander!! Unless we’re counting the Olympics as a major, at which point I’ll take Tony Finau (so long as his ankle stays intact at the Par-3 on Wednesday).

Sens: Hard to argue with any of the above. But I’ll go with Sungjae Im. Two top 10s in three tries. Augusta suits him, and he now has enough rounds under his belt to meet the ‘course knowledge’ requirements.

Zak: Max Homa is going to flip a major switch at some point. It’s the most logical next step in his career. Why not this week?

Eighteen LIV Golf members are in this Masters, and those same players have played just three LIV events this calendar year. The lighter schedule was attractive to some of the players who went to LIV, but now with the Masters here, could it leave some of these guys rusty due to less reps?

Berhow: Maybe, but as pro golfers I like to think they know what’s best for their games, which means they’ll put in the work with teachers, on the range or on the course on their own time. Maybe they can’t simulate that clutch-time experience you get competing in a tournament as often, but if they’ve made it this far in golf they’ve been doing that their whole lives already. I think it helps them coming off a tournament this past weekend.

Colgan: Absolutely yes. We haven’t seen or heard a relevant moment from a LIV player since the Open Championship. That’s hugely significant as it relates to “peaking at the right time,” as we hear so many golfers talk about doing.

News

Sens: No doubt. I think this is one of the more interesting elements of this year’s Masters. But I also think the dynamics stand to affect different players differently. Cam Smith has never been known as a grinder. Maybe the chill schedule of late doesn’t hurt him at all. Ditto Dustin Johnson. And we’ve seen how negative energy tends to bring Patrick Reed to life. The consensus seems to be that most LIV guys are going to be non-factors. Maybe those doubter vibes will have a Jor-el-under-a-yellow-sun effect on Reed. Who knows. Watching all of this will be part of the fun.

Zak: I think playing the week before is more of an asset for LIV guys than we think. There’s no sitting at home. When one or more of them play well this week, they’ll acknowledge it, too.

The No. 1-ranked amateur in the world, Rose Zhang, triumphed in a playoff at the Augusta National Women’s Amateur on Saturday, her latest victory in a young career filled with them. What impressed you about her play this week?

Colgan: I was at the ANWA in 2021 when Rose collapsed on No. 13 to lose the title, and thought we were in for a repeat performance Saturday when she made a mess of No. 15. The collapse never came, though she may have flirted with it, and now — with the ANWA, a Women’s Am, NCAA Championship and World No. 1 Amateur Ranking —  she’s the most decorated amateur golfer this side of Jordan Spieth

Zak: She could have crumbled. Saturday wasn’t her day. And when her approach into 15 splashed, she could have completely given up. But her approaches into 16, 17 and 18 were all basically pin-high. She reset herself once she had blown the lead and then kept going. She’ll be in that position again somewhere down the road. The best players can play their way out of it.

Berhow: She won without her best stuff, which is what elite players find ways to do. She didn’t let her late mistake on 15 derail the tournament. She followed it with a great shot into 16 and played solid golf the rest of the way. Nothing flashy, but got it done. It’s funny to think about all she has accomplished now. I profiled Rose four years ago when she was one of the youngest players in this field. Her coach told me a story about when she was a junior she innocently asked him, “When am I going to win a trophy?” She’s got a lot of ‘em now!