Tour Confidential: How far back is too far back to win the U.S. Open?

Check in each day of this week’s U.S. Open for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topic in the tournament, and join the conversation by tweeting us @golf_com.

Patrick Reed sits at four under and holds the 36-hole lead at the 120th U.S. Open, with Bryson DeChambeau one back and Justin Thomas in a group that’s two back. But Winged Foot got tougher on Friday and might get even harder over the weekend. Lots of stars — like Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson (both three over) — are still lurking, and the group that made the cut on the number (six over) is 10 back. But how far is too far back to win this thing?

Sean Zak, senior editor (@sean_zak): [Whatever Bastable says] plus two strokes. Our senior editorial leader believes it’s a tall task for anyone at three over or four over, but we’re at halftime! Dustin Johnson (+3) has played one average quarter, one solid quarter, and he could definitely come out guns blazing in the second half and shoot 68-68 for a multi-stroke victory. I think anyone at four over is very much in play. They just gotta shoot under par one of these rounds.

Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): Standing by it! Seven or eight back is too many on a course that won’t give up many, if any, low numbers. Maybe we see a 67 or 68 out of the early groups, but I don’t see it late on Saturday or Sunday as the greens get tougher still. So barring all the players now under par collapsing, I think the three- and four-over crowd has a better shot at winning next year’s Open at Torrey than they do the 2020 edition. As well as Patrick Reed has been putting — and with his short game of the gods — he’s the guy to beat.

Josh Sens, senior writer (@JoshSens): If I’m remembering my first-grade math correctly, two rounds have been played and two remain, which means that everyone is still in it. Of course, DJ at three over is a lot more in it than, say, Thomas Detry at three over. And I agree with Bastable that it will be tough sledding for anyone to play catch-up. But plenty can still happen. If this thing were anywhere near finished, they’d have handed out the trophy this afternoon. Post a good round early on a day when things turn ugly in the afternoon and … as Yogi said, it ain’t over til it’s … etc.

Alan Shipnuck, senior writer (@alanshipnuck): The winning score could easily be three over or four over. So anyone who makes the cut is in it if they play their butt off this weekend.

Nick Piastowski, senior editor (@nickpia): I’m going to give two numbers! My head says the +2’s are in it, so six strokes. They have to leap-frog 16 players, which is hard but not impossible. But I also can’t leave out DJ and Rory, who are sitting there at +3 and are seven shots out. Can they catch Patrick Reed straight up? Yes. Can they jump past everyone else? Maaaaaybe.

Dylan Dethier, senior writer (@dylan_dethier): Literally everybody in the field has a chance to win, because as Shipnuck says, this could be a race to even par. (Or a couple over!) If you look at recent history, nobodies don’t tend to win very tough golf tournaments on the PGA Tour. But maybe Patrick Cantlay shoots 4-under tomorrow morning and plays his way right into contention.

I doubt it — it’s far more likely that the winner will come from the fivesome of DeChambeau, Reed, Thomas, Schauffele or Rahm. But if tomorrow is anything like Saturday at Shinnecock (glorious madness!) we’d do well to pay close attention to the early groups.