U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch: Here’s who might break out at Brookline 

Tom Hoge hits his tee shot on the 15th hole at Muirfield Village.

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Tom Hoge would probably love himself some Tom Hoge. 

As we hunt for a sleeper for this week’s U.S. Open, you could do worse than the 33-year-old. He won this year, at Pebble Beach, no less. He made the cut at the Masters and top-10’d at the PGA. Hoge’s also a respectable 36th this season in Strokes Gained: Total. All good things. And at 150-1 over at BetMGM, he’s good value. 

But we may not have to tell Hoge that. 

“We all know you like to flip cards and roll some dice,” co-host Drew Stoltz said on last week’s episode of GOLF’s Subpar. “How far does a casino have to be away from your hotel for you to be like, ‘No, it’s too far.’”

“Probably a few hours,” Hoge said. “I would say I’ve been known to do [that] in my past.”

A sleeper and someone who knows when to double down. Take our money now! But should you need to consider other underdogs, we have you covered there, too, no pun intended. Below, our staff each made a long-shot bet using odds from BetMGM to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. (And if you’re looking to place any of these bets yourself, we teamed with BetMGM, and the online sports book is offering a new promotion: Make a risk-free bet up to $1,000. Sign up for an account to get into the action today.)

On to the picks.

Staff sleeper picks for the U.S. Open 

The sportsbook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino.
7 things you MUST know to make money on golf betting
By: Nick Piastowski

Ryan Barath

Sleeper pick: Seamus Power, +10,000. Power has had some very strong finishes this year, including a top 10 at the recent PGA Championship. He’s in the top 10 on tour for greens in regulation, and at 100-1, offers some great odds for a top 50 player in the world.

Alan Bastable

Sleeper pick: Seamus Power, +10,000: I’m with Barath. Seamus Power is primed to become the next breakout major winner from the Emerald Isle. No real weaknesses, and hits a ton of greens (9th on Tour). Mark it on a Post-It: He will win a major someday.

Josh Berhow 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. Home game! That has to count for something, plus, he’s had a pretty solid season this year. A good putting week will get him in the mix. 

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: Richard Bland, +50,000. It would be inarguably funny — in a deeply morbid way — if someone from the highly controversial new tour found himself winning the national championship. It would be even funnier if that person was Richard Bland, whose career to this point is defined by being golf’s most anonymous pro.

Dylan Dethier   

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. Home-game model off the charts. Having a way better season than you think. Get ready for the C’mon KEEGS cheers to rattle around the Brookline pines.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Harold Varner III, +10,000. Varner, like my pick to win, Matthew Fitzpatrick, is a player on a serious upswing: three top 10s this season, including a T6 at the Players Championship. And a solid T13 at last week’s Canadian Open. A big-time breakout seems imminent.

Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Travis Vick, +100,000. Hook ’em Horns, baby.

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +15,000. He made the cut at the Masters and top-10’d at the PGA. Hoge’s also a respectable 36th this season in Strokes Gained: Total. That works for me this week.

Tim Reilly

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +15,000. Do I really think Phil’s going to win? Not really. But I said the same thing prior to last year’s PGA Championship. I’m rooting to see the mayhem that would ensue if Phil were to win the one major that has eluded him throughout his career amid all of this LIV Golf controversy. Few athletes create chaos for themselves like Phil, and this would take it to a new level. 

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Davis Riley, +10,000. Anyone who has watched Riley this season knows that the guy is no longer a sleeper. But somehow, Vegas still has him listed as one.

Jonathan Wall 

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson +15,000: If the golf gods have a sense of humor, they’ll make this happen. Even an in-contention Phil would be delicious. 

Sean Zak 

Sleeper pick: Brian Harman +15,000. This grinder is a great bet whenever the golf is tough. 

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Nick Piastowski

Nick Piastowski

Golf.com Editor

Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.