2023 U.S. Open best bets, according to a longtime pro caddie
Max Homa hits a shot on Monday from the bunker on 18 at Los Angeles Country Club.
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Every year when the PGA Tour stops at Riviera, a group of caddies is lucky enough to play Los Angeles Country Club. As I write this, I wish I had prioritized that more. Having caddied Riviera and played nine holes at Bel-Air (George C. Thomas’ other local masterpieces), I feel confident enough to handicap this week but still don’t fully appreciate the strategic nuances and firm and fast conditions players and caddies will encounter. That said, maybe no one can. This week will be a wild one — one-third U.S. Open, one-third Open Championship, one-third Australian Open and 100 percent L.A. cool.
With that, here’s my view of the betting board and bets you could make:
— Let’s dive in with Max Homa, who is +310 to finish in the top 10. I am fully aware of his record at LACC, along with his perplexing major record, but here’s saying he channels the good vibes and has his best major finish ever.
— Kurt Kitayama (+360 to finish in the top 30) appears to be majorly mispriced. Crazy for a West Coast guy who won an elevated event this year and finished 4th at the PGA Championship!
A glitzy U.S. Open arrives with a simple question: Who’s gonna win?
— Viktor Hovland (+1,800 to win). Feels like Viktor is still flying under the radar coming off his win at Jack’s place. His short game is much better and he’s a fun-to-root-for stud who won the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach in 2018. My friend Keith Stewart at Read the Line has him as the best mid- to long-iron player in the world, and there will be plenty of those shots this week. Shay Knight is clearly up to the challenge on the bag, as this duo has finished second, seventh, third, and fourth in the past four majors (including the Players).
— Patrick Cantlay (+375 to finish in the top five.) Patrick and “new” caddie Joe LaCava had a nice showing at the PGA Championship (T9), and it wouldn’t surprise me that the Long Beach native has quietly had this tournament circled in red on his calendar for years. With longtime coach Jamie Mulligan by his side, there won’t be anything that will surprise Cantlay this week, and his third-place showing earlier this year at Riviera shows he can put on the hometown blinders.
— Xander Schauffele (+230 to finish in the top 10). I’m on record for Xander to win this week, but “Golf Twitter” got to me since so I’ve slowed my roll to a safer bet. DataGolf has “X-man” as the world’s third-best player, and he and caddie Austin Kaiser comfortably sit in my top-five player/caddie teams. In previous conversations with Austin, he lamented Xander’s “level-headed” approach in majors and their preparation and strategy — but these two will be in lock-step with changing course conditions.
— Tyrrell Hatton (+300 to finish in the top 10). Hatton will be in the mix. Since he made a recent caddie switch to jovial Bo Martin, Hatton has shown good form, and he’s gaining strokes in every major category.
— Justin Rose (+165 to finish in the top 20). Rosie’s swing is slotted perfectly at the moment, and the former U.S. Open champ has the patience to hang around all week in L.A. Already a winner in California this year, he putts his best on Bentgrass, and he’s finished in the top 20 in five of his past seven events.
The U.S. Open hole everyone keeps talking about? It’s a mind-bender
— Tommy Fleetwood (-180 to finish in the top 20). Love this bet on Tommy at every major championship, as he’s cashed in four of the past six. Undoubtedly feeling a bit snake-bit after last week’s playoff loss, Fleetwood had a nice “back-to-work” tweet at the beginning of the week, and his Open Championship pedigree and short game will serve him well at LACC.
— Rickie Fowler (+190 to finish in the top 20). You knew it was coming, and even though Rickie had a poor showing at the PGA Championship (MC), I really do like his chances to capitalize on his California roots and good form. DataGolf has Fowler as its 13th-best player in the world now, as he has reeled off 10 top 20s in 13 events this year.
— Sahith Theegala (+330 to finish in the top 20). Another California kid, Theegala had great comments earlier to journalist Garrett Johnston on Twitter and has played LACC over 30 times. He’s made the cut in three of five majors and finished ninth at this year’s Masters.
— Eric Cole, Adam Schenk, Michael Kim and Luke List to finish in the top 40. All players who are generally in good form with excellent ball-striking numbers and who have comfortably bested this finishing position in a major championship before. Kim and List also have California ties.
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