Safeway Open expert picks: Who our staff thinks will win
Joel Dahmen is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory.
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Lucky you, the Tour Championship ended on Monday, yet the new season starts just three days later, all the way across the U.S. in Napa, Calif. Here are our staff’s picks for the 2020-21 season-opener, the Safeway Open.
A quick refresher on our game. Thirteen members of our staff will make three $100 bets — to win, top 10 and a prop bet of choice — for each tournament from the Charles Schwab Challenge through the Masters in November. Each member starts with $4,000, and the odds will come from the DraftKings website. The first-place finisher will play a round of golf when it’s all said and done, and the last-place finisher is on the bag for the winner.
Our primary goal, of course, is to help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
The picks (in order of money total)
Jessica Marksbury ($9,974)
To-win: Brendan Steele, +2200. Nice odds for a guy who has won here twice in his last four appearances! I’ll take ‘em.
Top 10: Harold Varner III, +350. Varner has had a couple of top 20s here over the last two years. I think this is the year he cracks the top 10.
Prop: Troy Merritt, top 20, +335. I feel drawn to Troy this week for some reason. His results has fluctuated wildly over the last several seasons, but I feel good about a top 20 this week.
Sean Zak ($6,982)
To-win: Joel Dahmen, +2800. Feels like he’s been knocking on the door all summer long. A breakthrough is coming!
Top 10: Si Woo Kim, +250. Next to no value here, but he’s been playing so well it feels safe.
Prop: No hole in one during the tournament, +120. This feels like a potentially screwed up line, so I’m grabbing it while it lives!
Nick Piastowski ($6,468)
To-win: Brendan Steele, +2,200. He’s a two-time winner here and has played well since the return.
Top 10: Harry Higgs, +750. He played well on the West Coast to start last season.
Prop: Round 1 sixshooter, best score Round 1, Kevin Streelman, +400. I considered picking him to win, so I think he wins this group.
2020 Safeway Open tee times: First round pairings for Thursday
Jonathan Wall ($6,103)
To-win: Joel Dahmen, +2800. I hate tailing Sean with this pick, but it feels like Dahmen is due.
Top 10: Mark Hubbard, +500. Finished 13th last season in Napa. This is a dart throw.
Prop: To be decided by a playoff, yes, +400. I’m a sucker for this bet — and it never comes through. You best believe I’m taking it again.
James Colgan ($4,751)
To-win: Si Woo Kim, +2200. Who’s going to win in a week with a very light field? How about Mr. Traj for a big victory after nipping at the heels a few weeks back.
Top 10: Harry Higgs, +750. Played really well at Dustin Johnson’s Northern Trust evisceration a few weeks back and also happens to own one of the best names in golf. An easy choice for Mr. Higgs.
Prop: Phil Mickelson, top American player, +1600. This man destroyed the field on the Champions Tour; why not finish atop the field of Americans at the Safeway?
Josh Sens ($4,738)
To-win: Kevin Streelman, +4000. It’s been a steady season for Streelman, who seems like just the sort of quietly consistent guy to show up strong in this relatively low-key event.
Top 10: Jordan Spieth, +350. The former wunderkind has to get back on track at some point. Right?
Prop: Winning margin of 2, +350. I can’t pretend there is anything scientific about this pick, which means it stands just as good a chance as anything I can support with careful research.
Tim Reilly ($4,550)
To-win: Joel Dahmen, +2800. Dahmen has quietly become one of the most consistent golfers on Tour. A PGA Tour victory has eluded him and it comes this week.
Top 10: Wesley Bryan, +750. I’ll be honest, I just saw an Instagram post from Wesley before making these picks. I stopped and watched his swing a few times and I liked what I saw. I feel like that was a “meant to be” moment and I can’t resist taking Bryan to have a big week now.
Prop: Playoff, yes, +400. We’re all in a rush to get to Winged Foot. That’s why a playoff is going to happen and put off U.S. Open week just a litttttle bit longer.
Andrew Tursky ($3,900)
To win: Charl Schwartzel, +10000. Aside from a T3 in July at the 3M Open he hasn’t performed very consistently, but he’s a streaky player who could get hot this week. At +10000, I’m willing to take a risk to start off the season with a bang.
Top-10: Harold Varner III, +350). Since I’m taking a long shot to win, I wanted to go with someone reliable to finish top 10, and HV3 is nearly a lock to contend.
Prop: Playoff, yes, +400. This always seems more likely to happen than its +400 odds. I’m going back to the well.
Here’s how your handicap index stacks up against golfers in the United States
Josh Berhow ($3,851)
To-win: Joel Dahmen, +2800. Three top 20s in his last four starts. Dahmen is coming off his third straight solid season on the PGA Tour. He’s only missing a victory, and it’s going to happen at some point. He’s one of the favorites this week.
Top 10: Brendan Steele, +250. He’s won here twice before and never missed a cut in six starts. A safe pick for the Safeway Open if there ever was one.
Prop: Playoff, yes, +400. I hit a similar prop last week and have to stick with the hot hand! The heart always wins.
Zephyr Melton ($3,518)
To-win: Jordan Spieth, +3000. This is the week. The comeback tour starts this week in northern California. Hop on the bandwagon now while there’s still room.
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