Charley Hull may be five shots back but she can absolutely win the AIG Women's Open Sunday.
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ST. ANDREWS, Scotland — It’s winning time, folks. Or as Rory McIlroy likes to call it — the business end of the tournament. Where contention actually takes place. The final round, 18 holes left, Sunday afternoon on the Old Course.
It feels good. It also feels cold. It’s genuinely frigid in the late August evenings here in St. Andrews. With the constant, 25 to 30-mph wind, the feels like temp dips into the 40s as golfers are finishing their rounds. But sympathetic we are not. This is the home stretch! It’s going to be grind Sunday, and so much of one that only seven golfers can win it. Sure, there are Solheim Cup points on offer and plenty of money to strive for, but as for the actual winning, we’ve trimmed the field to just seven. And we’ve offered up why below.
Yes, this means apologies to those not included. Sorry, Jenny Shin. Sorry, Alexa Pano. Apologies to Jinhee Im and Esther Henseleit and any others not included below — we’re counting you out (But also, prove us wrong).
1. Lilia Vu
Why? She’s the defending champ, duh. She’s done it before. She looked like she was breaking down Saturday afternoon early on the back nine, but her caddie stepped in and told her to cool her jets. “I think he was basically saying, like, you’ve missed every single [bunker] the past two days,” Vu told us Friday, “so this is your turn to go in the bunker.”
This golf is about acceptance. Vu has had a full year of acceptance, battling a back injury. Also, she putts it as good as anyone in the field. And she’s going to keep that going Sunday.
2. Lydia Ko
Why? She hasn’t made a double bogey. It may not seem vital to avoid double bogeys, so long as you make a bunch of birdies, but avoiding chaos is everything at the Old Course right now. Those three leaders entering the day — Vu, Nelly Korda and Charley Hull — they all got passed because they all made double or worse today.
Ko isn’t going to be aggressive tomorrow. She promised the media that after her round. But she’s going to plod along and take what the course gives her, kinda like what she did in France two weeks ago. Will it be enough, though?
As stated above, everyone up top ran into trouble today. But Korda did it with one bad swing that ended up O.B. on 16. But Korda has somehow avoided all 112 bunkers at the Old Course this week — as far as we know — and could replicate Tiger Woods’ trap-free feat from the 2000 Open Championship. It may feel funny to whittle this all down to avoiding traps, but Charley Hull made triple today simply because she found two bunkers. Lilia Vu’s double bogey was bunker-ridden. That’s going to happen to some of the leaders tomorrow. If it doesn’t happen to Korda, she will absolutely be in the hunt.
4. Jiyai Shin
Why? She’s in the lead. And that matters! If you shoot the same score as her tomorrow, you’re not winning. She’s also done it twice before — winning the Women’s Open in 2008 and 2012. But that was 12 years ago. At what point does experience go out the window in favor of youth? Maybe we’ll find out tomorrow.
5. Ruoning Yin
Why? She’s shot the best round this week. The wind has been a constant all week — same direction, same sort of cross-wind, same sort of strength. And no one has made that look less relevant than Yin on Thursday. She was six under (somehow) through 14 holes and cruising. Even if she tripped up, her 68 in the brutal morning conditions had to beat the field average by eight or nine strokes. So she’s capable of firing a 66 in there, coming from behind and winning from the clubhouse. I think …
6. Jeeno Thitikul
Why? She’s due. Thitikul has been contending all over in May, June and July, but her only win this summer came in the team event in Michigan. Team wins are great and all, but they just don’t quite hit like solo victories. Thitikul then showed up to the Olympics and got into podium contention before ejecting out of the final round. And all week in St. Andrews, barely anyone has paid her attention. She’s done zero press. She’s hovered on the perimeter of the leaderboard. But she’s four back, and has contended in every single major on the rota. She’s going to break through at some point, right? Right???
7. Charley Hull
Why? She’ll have the crowd. Hull has a natural electricity to her that most other pros don’t. Partly (and perhaps mostly) because she’s so unapologetically herself. She brings you in. She has a powerful game with a slashy swing and she’s going to be aggressive as ever, seven groups ahead of the final pairing. If she can go out in 33 on the more difficult nine, the crowd will let you know about it.
Of course, if you’ve read this far, you’re looking for a prediction, right?
Good! It’s Lilia Vu, the defending champ doing a bit of defending. Her third career major. She putts her way to a 69 and golf immortality at the game’s birthplace.
Sean Zak is a senior writer and author of Searching in St. Andrews, which followed his travels in Scotland during the most pivotal summer in the game’s history.
