Truist Championship weekend betting picks: Best values with two rounds left

The general sentiment in the golf fan community was positive: visiting a classic golf course, built by a legendary designer, never seen before on Tour, to stage a Signature Event on the eve of a major championship. I was intrigued. Would the Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, at just a shade over 7,100 yards, be able to hold its own against today’s modern-day player and the 14 tech-fueled clubs they tote around in massive staff golf bags?

Putting a damper on things was the weather. There had been rain in the area leading up to Thursday’s opening round and more came. No matter the course — a wet, soft track with little to no wind is defenseless against today’s best players. And that scenario played out on Thursday with Keith Mitchell leading the charge, shooting a bogey-fee, 9-under 61 to grab the first-round lead. Mitchell, by the way, has been red-hot out of the gate as of late, sitting first or second after the first round in each of his last five starts. Other than a runner-up finish at Corales Puntacana, Mitchell is yet to close better than 12th place during this stretch.

Friday in Philadelphia presented a different story. Temperatures plummeted, rain continued to fall during play, and the wind began to pick up. There were more umbrellas and pairs of rain pants than there were birdies. Five players of the 72 in the field shot over par on Thursday. Eighteen shot over par on Friday. Conditions made the Wissahickon Course play longer. Even the big hitters were finding fairway bunkers that they were able to carry on Thursday. The scoring average was three-plus shots higher in Round 2.

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Mitchell maintained his lead, getting to 12 under after a 67. Shane Lowry shot the low round of the day, five under, and is one shot off the lead. Sepp Straka is at 10 under for the championship, and a host of players are tied for fourth at seven under, including Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Collin Morikawa.

So, what do we do heading into the weekend? Beginning with the weather, it seems scoring could become a tad easier on Saturday as sunshine is expected and temperatures will jump 20-something degrees into the 70’s. The wind will freshen, however, with the forecast calling for a steady 15-20 mph breeze. Sunday looks to be benign with wind under 10 mph and temperatures getting as high as 80 degrees.

It is often safe to back the frontrunners in a birdie-fest as they are not likely to make many mistakes and slip back to the pack. While this tournament looked that way initially, it appears that pattern has changed.

BACKING

Justin Thomas (14-1)
7 under, 5 back

Thomas had been showing signs of getting back into the winner’s circle in 2025 and ultimately kicked the door down last month at the RBC Heritage. He will go into next week with a great deal of hoopla, as the two-time PGA Championship winner got his first PGA title at Quail Hollow in 2017. I speculated that he might be more relaxed this week, in tune-up mode possibly, knowing what next week would hold. With 36 holes in the books, here he is in contention — in “go mode.” As is often the problem for Thomas on bentgrass, the putter is not always cooperating. He’s losing nearly two strokes to the field with the flatstick and ranks 56th out of 72 players after two rounds. On the other hand, he is No. 1 in this field for Greens in Reg, second for SG: Off the Tee and fourth on approach. If he can find a hot putter over the weekend, he may just find his second victory in back-to-back starts.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)
7 under, 5 back

Cantlay thrives on bentgrass, in this part of the country and on courses measuring less than 7,200 yards. Even playing in the more difficult part of the afternoon on Friday, he still managed to shoot two under and keep himself in contention. Like Thomas, Cantlay is doing everything well except for putting. Putting is an area of the game that can turn one way or the other in a heartbeat. And if it turns positively for a guy that currently ranks 41st in this field for SG: Putting, he, to, is going to be in the mix this weekend. For SG: Tee to Green, both Cantlay and Thomas rank fourth through two rounds.

FADING

Rory McIlroy (+550)
7 under, 5 back

Scottie Scheffler, who recently shot 253 over the course of 72 holes to tie a PGA Tour record, may have something to say about this but McIlroy is arguably the hottest player in the world, having won three times already this season, including completing the career Grand Slam with a win last month at the Masters. The hype surrounding him will be even greater than that around Thomas as McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow next week, a course at which he was won four times. With all of that comes a heavy premium on price. McIlroy is tied with Thomas at seven under yet his price is more than twice as short. What? We mentioned the putter possibly heating up for Cantlay and Thomas. McIlroy is fourth in this field for SG: Putting. That is not likely to hold up over four rounds. Especially when he ranks 64th for SG: Approach. If his irons continue to misfire, the putter eventually will not be able to continue bailing him out.