Tour Confidential: U.S. Open favorites, storylines, Scottie vs. Rory and more

Welcome to U.S. Open week, where we’re heading to Shinnecock Hills on Long Island for the sixth time in the history of golf’s national championship. What’s your biggest U.S. Open storyline you can’t wait to see unfold?

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): I love Shinnecock, and I love that the U.S. Open goes there even though it makes no earthly sense, logistically speaking. I can’t wait to learn from the best golfers alive why it is so different from the rest of the golf courses they play every year. Normally, I’m not a course guy, but here I am.

Zephyr Melton, associate game-improvement editor (@zephyrmelton): Can Scottie Scheffler complete the career grand slam? It would be quite the achievement if he can get it done before turning 30. I can’t wait to see him tackle Shinnecock.

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor (@JR_HIRSHey): I’m with Zephyr on this one. Scottie Scheffler’s first crack at the career grand slam trumps all. But we were given a U.S. Open eve surprise Sunday morning with the WD of Brooks Koepka in Canada. We wish Brooks a speedy recovery, and we’re awaiting news on what it means for his U.S. Open availability. But he was a big storyline before the injury news arose, coming into Shinnecock with trending form and holding the belt as the 2018 U.S. Open winner at Shinnecock.

The top-ranked players in the world, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, haven’t finished outside the top 20 in a tournament since March (both at the Players). How does Shinnecock Hills set up for them? And who are you picking to have the better week?

Colgan: I’d think it sets up very well for both of them, particularly considering Scheffler and McIlroy are two of the best iron players alive. Shinnecock has been altered since its last U.S. Open — it is wider and more forgiving off the tee now — but it is no less difficult to shoot a good score. It seems these changes will make Shinnecock even more of a second-shot golf course than it was already, which is to say it will benefit those like Scheffler and McIlroy above the more pedestrian ball-strikers. If I were picking one of them, I’d lean toward Scheffler, just because he’s more accurate with the driver, and even a rare missed fairway this week could make the difference.

Melton: I’ll lean slightly toward Scottie on this one. As the best iron player in the world, the test Shinnecock presents should set up perfectly for his skillset. He seems to like the USGA setups for this championship, too, having finished inside the top 10 in all but one U.S. Open since he’s been out on Tour.

Hirsh: I think Scheffler is going to have the better week just because, as silly as it sounds, he’s due. He’s a machine in U.S. Opens even though he hasn’t recorded a win. What better place to do it than one of the most historic venues of the sport. He’s also been a top-5 machine this season but has just one win in his first start of the year.

For those unfamiliar with Shinneock Hills, why is it known as such a quality U.S. Open test? What does it demand from players and what are you watching for as soon as the tournament gets underway?

Colgan: As someone who played there in nonstop 35 mph winds a few weeks ago, I can answer this question from memory. What makes Shinnecock great is that there is nowhere to miss. The greens and fairways might be large, but the actual spaces that allow you to safely advance your ball are minuscule. When the course is playing firm and fast (which it will be), spin control and land movement will be at a premium. In other words, it’s freaking impossible in the best of conditions … and only a player with an otherworldly sense of accuracy and confidence will be able to survive a U.S. Open.

Melton: Having never stepped on property, I can’t give a very nuanced breakdown on why Shinnecock is great, but from the stories I’ve heard I can say this: It’s damn hard. Perfect for a U.S. Open.

Hirsh: James you played? How rude of you not to invite Zephyr and I.

The last time the tournament was played here, in 2018, Brooks Koepka beat Tommy Fleetwood by one to win his second straight U.S. Open. The leaderboard that year was stacked, too — guys like DJ, Reed, Finau, Hatton, Xander and Rose all finished in the top 10. Any learnings we can take from that tournament as we head into this week?

Colgan: Yeah, the lesson is that there probably won’t be a fluke winner here. Only the biggest of big dawgs will be in contention.

Melton: Famous last words, Jimmy. I hope you are correct! And for what we can expect? I’ll say it again: It’s gonna play hard.

Hirsh: My learning is that, amazing, all but two of those guys are legit contenders. Fleetwood is now a PGA Tour winner, Reed is in good form, albeit he’s played only the PGA since the Masters. Rose is having one of the best seasons of his career. Hatton and Schauffele need no explanation. The only question marks would be DJ and Koepka with his injury.

LIV Golf star Bryson DeChambeau hasn’t made a major cut this season. Does that change this week? Where does Bryson finish, and who are you picking for low LIV player?

Colgan: I don’t love how DeChambeau’s bomb-and-gauge strategy sets up for Shinnecock, especially after McIlroy and Scheffler indicated the wider-than-usual fairways have set up to make it extra penal on those who miss the fairway. I think Bryson is a shoe-in to make the cut, but I’m more skeptical on his odds at a third U.S. Open victory here given the setup.

Melton: I think he makes the cut, but I don’t think he’ll be a serious contender on the weekend. You’ve got to be firing on all cylinders to compete at a U.S. Open, and this year he just hasn’t been in that sort of form. 

Hirsh: I don’t think he makes the cut. I think he’s in his own head. I expect Jon Rahm to play well and finish as the low LIV player.

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday, although big-name players like Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark all had solid weeks. How much U.S. Open stock are you putting in players trending in the proper direction right now, and who is the hottest player entering the week?

Colgan: Putting some stock in it! It’s funny how recent form can help avoid a Big Mistake at a major championship. And the U.S. Open feels like a place you’d like to avoid a Big Mistake.

Melton: Form is always nice, and no one has more of it right now than Wyndham Clark with a win, a top-three and another solid showing in Canada over the last several weeks. I’d keep an eye on him as we head to Shinnecock. 

Hirsh: Definitely putting stock in it. Speaking of Clark, he won the month before his breakthrough at the 2023 U.S. Open. Clark is hot again this year, but god it feels like Tommy Fleetwood could contend and get it done this week. Knocking on the door the last two weeks after a putter change — and clinging to one of the great major championship rounds we’ve seen anywhere in the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock. That would be an awesome win.