Tour Confidential: Rory vs. Spieth, PGA predictions, old-school Tour stop

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we break down the hottest players on the eve of the PGA Championship, underrated PGA Championship storylines and whether Philadelphia Cricket Club was a worthy Tour venue.

The PGA Championship, the second men’s major of the year, begins Thursday at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. What’s the better potential outcome: Rory McIlroy winning to capture the first two of four legs of the season Grand Slam, or Jordan Spieth winning to complete his career Grand Slam?

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor (@JR_HIRSHey): Spieth, just because him winning the career Grand Slam is far more likely than anyone ever winning a single-season slam. If the Masters winner is one of the top-10 players in the world, then he is always the favorite or near-favorite for the next major (the PGA). Spieth has just started to get his game in order with two top-5s this season and a string of top-20s going back to the beginning of April that he just narrowly missed extending this week. He’s going to be part of the conversation at the PGA Championship every year until he wins it or retires — and this year, he’s trending enough to be a serious factor. As for McIlroy and the single-year slam, we can talk about this at Oakmont if he wins the PGA.

Josh Sens (@joshsens): Agree with Jack. If McIlroy wins next week, we can start with the season Grand Slam hype. Spieth would be the better story, especially given how long he’s been trying to regain his form. The problem with that narrative is that it belongs in the “fantasy” section of the bookstore. It’s not going to happen. Too many other top guys are playing too well while Spieth continues to search. 

Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable):  Was a bummer to see Spieth lose some of his sheen at the Cricket Club after playing so well at the Nelson. Would have been electric to have him, Rory, Scottie and Bryson — aka the men’s game four biggest needle-movers, non-Tiger Division — all rolling into Charlotte in peak or near-peak form. Still, we’ve seen far more positives than negatives from Spieth this year. [whispers] Maybe his wrist is finally better. Exciting week ahead!   

With McIlroy in form and Scottie Scheffler coming off a record-breaking win in Texas, are you taking the duo of McIlroy and Scheffler to win at Quail Hollow, or the field?

Hirsh: Nah, I’ll take the field. I think there’s just too much parity in the sport right now. McIlroy definitely didn’t have his best stuff in Philadelphia this past week, and while Scheffler dominated in Houston, that was no major championship by any means. 

Sens: Yeah. Those two guys will rightly be the favorite but better odds go to the field. DeChambeau. Schauffele. Thomas. The list goes on of others who could win. 

Bastable: I’m here only for Michael Block prop bets (he’s back in the field, folks!). But if we must ponder other wagers, yes, I, too, would take the field. At the Masters, I would have happily taken Rory and Scheffler vs. everyone else, but PGA feels like more of an unknown, even if the tourney is visiting a course the players know well and at which McIlroy has excelled. That said, if you gave me Rory, Scottie and Bryson…  

Whose game is trending (and whose is fading) since the Masters?

Hirsh: Justin Thomas has to be one of the hottest players in the game right now, having broken his win drought and then giving it a real run again at the Truist. Max Homa also has seemed to find something. He was T12 at the Masters and had another good showing at Cricket, despite being the last player on the range each day.

As for someone fading, it might be Collin Morikawa. He was T12 at the Masters after notching two runner-ups early in the year but has finished T54-MC (the MC coming at the Zurich team event) and fizzled this past week after an opening 63 with a 70-72 showing on Friday and Saturday. He’s been one of the straightest drivers on Tour, but made an interesting driver change this week as well as testing out a mallet putter in the two starts after the Masters.

Sens. Jack took the words out of my keyboard. Thomas trending; Morikawa not. But this week in Philly also gave us a glimpse of Cameron Young rising up the leaderboard. He’s a streaky player who we haven’t seen much from of late. Maybe the Truist was a sign of more to come. 

Bastable: Shane Lowry, his tough finish at the Cricket Club aside, has been on a heater this year, contending nearly every time he tees it up; he has eight top-20s in 11 starts. Tommy Lad is also on the move. After a T21 at the Masters, he finished 7th at Harbour Town followed by a 4th-place finish this week in Philly. Ludvig Aberg has been quiet since winning the Genesis at Torrey. In his six starts since, he has just one top-20 finish (7th at the Masters) and two missed cuts. Of the players who finished the Truist, Aberg outplayed just seven of them.

News

What’s one other PGA storyline worth monitoring that’s not generating enough buzz?

Hirsh: I’m not sure this fits the question, but I’m going to use this platform to advocate that majors should not be played at regular Tour venues. The only exceptions should be for Pebble Beach and Riviera, which are two of the best courses in the world. Quail Hollow, while effective at producing good champions and compelling leaderboards, is not a world-beater. Why should we be playing one of the game’s four biggest events at a course we see every year when majors are supposed to provide a different challenge? We should be getting to see something new every year.

Sens: Like him or not, almost every time he’s been in a major since jumping to LIV, Bryson DeChambeau has been an exciting part of the story. Lots of Scottie, Rory, Spieth and Thomas talk for now. But I’m banking on Bryson having a say about that. 

Bastable: Blockie! Our guy’s playing in his fourth-straight PGA. That’s no small feat.   

The Wissahickon Course at Philadelphia Cricket Club — a highly ranked A.W. Tillinghast design — hosted the Truist Championship (with Sepp Straka winning by two), which at just 7,100 yards was an obvious outlier to most PGA Tour stops. “These new renovated old-school courses, the strategy is just hit driver everywhere and then figure it out from there,” McIlroy said early in the week. With the evolution of the golf ball, equipment and professional athletes, the fear is Golden Age courses like this will become obsolete for pros. So, did this week help or hurt that assumption?

Hirsh: Don’t get me wrong, Wissahickon, a course I’ve played hundreds of times, showed out well this week and played much harder than I was expecting. But I think McIlroy said it best this week when he said the tough conditions Friday almost made the course play as it would with older equipment. I’ve been a ball roll-back proponent for a while. Cricket at 7,100 yards is a bear for most players — even the skilled membership who in the club championship do not play the course completely tipped out like it was this week. Let’s make 7,100 yards reasonable for the PGA Tour again. I think Cricket proved that Golden Age courses aren’t obsolete yet, while at the same time proving the need for the rollback.

Sens: I don’t doubt that grip-it-and-rip-it was the strategy this week. But with a few exceptions — Sawgrass, maybe, Riviera — isn’t that how pretty much all Tour venues play for these guys these days? Bomb and gouge is fairly standard. What a course like Philly Cricket lacks in distance it makes up for with interesting angles and features around the greens. Watching them face ticklish chips and putts on a cool course was a reminder that these types of designs are very much worth keeping in the rotation. I suspect it would have been even cooler without all the grain. We didn’t get to see the course at its firmest and fieriest.

Bastable: After Scheffler’s 31-under romp at TPC Craig Ranch a week earlier, Cricket looked like Oakmont. I loved it, and so did the players. More, please!