PGA Championship projected cut: Oak Hill threatening to send stars home

jon rahm walks during the second round of the pga championship

Jon Rahm has battled Oak Hill and the rain on Friday.

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Through (nearly) 36 complete holes at the 2023 PGA Championship, Oak Hill Country Club has proven to be a tough test — and it’s going to send some of the game’s biggest stars home early.

The 36-hole cut at the PGA Championship is the top 70 and ties, but there are several pre-tournament favorites who might not advance to the weekend.

As of 3:45 p.m. ET, with the final threesomes just a couple of holes into their second rounds, the cut line was projected at five over par. Data Golf runs real-time predictive models throughout the tournament, and it says there’s a 65 percent chance the cut line stays at five over, with a 35 percent chance it gets bumped to six over.

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With the menacing way Oak Hill played for the morning wave, the cut line moving a stroke higher to six over wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Defending champion Justin Thomas is five over early in his second round, and Matt Fitzpatrick, the reigning U.S. Open champ, and Jon Rahm, the reigning Masters champ, are both at five over with about two-thirds of their rounds remaining, meaning they could fall on the wrong side of the cut line with a couple of costly bogeys.

Rickie Fowler is six over through 36 holes, so he’ll be monitoring the action on Friday afternoon, and players such as Joaquin Niemann and Jason Day are also at six over with lots of golf still remaining. Day is coming off a win just five days ago.

Players who have likely already missed the cut: Tom Kim (eight over), Cameron Young (nine over), Abraham Ancer (11 over), Sungjae Im (13 over) and Sam Burns (14 over).

You can follow the second-round scores here.

Josh Berhow

Golf.com Editor

As GOLF.com’s managing editor, Berhow handles the day-to-day and long-term planning of one of the sport’s most-read news and service websites. He spends most of his days writing, editing, planning and wondering if he’ll ever break 80. Before joining GOLF.com in 2015, he worked at newspapers in Minnesota and Iowa. A graduate of Minnesota State University in Mankato, Minn., he resides in the Twin Cities with his wife and two kids. You can reach him at joshua_berhow@golf.com.