This match-play savant is our long-shot pick to win: WGC-Dell Match Play odds

This week’s 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is the last edition in the event’s history, and we’re putting our money on a long shot with a long history of success with this format. Here’s our pick, the betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds: Long-shot bet

Kevin Kisner is a four-time PGA Tour champion, but poor recent play has him laying low in oddsmakers’ eyes, to the tune of +12500 to win this week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

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In eight starts this season, Kisner has only made four cuts, with his best finish being a T29 at the RSM Classic. Not inspiring results for the bettors looking to put some money on the line this week.

But when it comes to match play, Kisner is something of a savant. In six starts at the WGC Match Play since it has been held at Austin Country Club, Kisner has two runner-up finishes, including at last year’s event. Better yet, in 2019 Kisner won it. His last four Match Play starts look like this: 2-18-1-2.

Given that stellar history and the unique nature of this tournament’s match-play format, we predict Kisner to outperform his long odds in a big way. Should you bet $10 on him to win and he pulls it off, you’ll earn a hefty $1,250. If you’re looking for less risk or additional insurance bets, Kisner is a great choice to finish top 10 and even better for a top 20.

How last week’s long shot fared

Our long-shot pick at last week’s Valspar Championship, David Lingmerth, was looking great heading into Sunday. The veteran pro, who was +12500 to win when we selected him as our long shot, was at four under through 54 holes, comfortably inside the top 10 and only four shots off the lead.

But Sunday’s final round proved a difficult one for Lingmerth, especially late in the round. He made a double bogey at the par-4 16th and a bogey at 18 to shoot 75 and fall to even par, leaving him with a T27 finish. Without the bogey at 18 he would have finished top 20, and if not for the double at 16, he would have earned us a top-10.


2023 Valspar Championship: David Lingmerth (Odds: +12500; Finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds: The favorites

When the current World No. 1 is also the defending champion, as Scottie Scheffler is at the Match Play, he’s going to be a big favorite. This week, Scheffler leads the way at +800 to win. Coming in second is Jon Rahm at +1100, with Rory McIlroy positioned in third (+1200).

Another player among the favorites to keep an eye on is Jordan Spieth, a native Texan, who had a near-miss at the Valspar last week. His pre-tournament odds-to-win stand at +2200.

You can see the top 15 and ties in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play betting odds as of Monday afternoon below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play betting odds (Top 15 and ties)

Scottie Scheffler (+800)
Jon Rahm (+1100)
Rory McIlroy (+1200)
Max Homa (+1800)
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Collin Morikawa (+2200)
Jordan Spieth (+2200)
Viktor Hovland (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Tony Finau (+2500)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Jason Day (+3300)
Sungjae Im (+3300)
Will Zalatoris (+3300)
Sam Burns (+3500)

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