Tour veteran is our super-long-shot pick to win this week: Valspar Championship odds

David Lingmerth passes putter to caddie at 2023 Sony Open

David Lingmerth has been playing outplaying the odds all season.

Harry How/Getty Images

With the Players Championship out of the way, the PGA Tour is staying in Florida for this week’s 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, and we’re putting money on one of the top finishers at the Players as our long-shot bet of the week. Here’s our pick, the betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.

Valspar Championship odds: Long-shot bet

It’s safe to assume that of all the bets placed on last week’s Players Championship, very few were placed on Tour veteran David Lingmerth. But we think it would be smart to change that trend this week.

scottie scheffler celebrates his win
Tour Confidential: Scottie Scheffler’s Players win, the new-look PGA Tour and more
By: GOLF Editors

Lingmerth, then ranked No. 190 in the Official World Golf Ranking, beat the odds in a big way, going 72-68-68-72 at TPC Sawgrass to finish the Players at eight under, good enough for a T6 finish. You might want to write that off as a lucky week, but you’d be wrong to do so. Lingmerth has four top-10s already this season and another T11 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship on top of that.

At 35, Lingmerth is in the later part of his career, but he does have one big win on his resume, the 2015 Memorial Tournament, and his best career rank in the OWGR was 35th.

As for his past performance at Innisbrook’s Copperhead course, which hosts this week’s event, Lingmerth hasn’t played the Valspar since back in 2018, but in four starts he’s never missed the cut, and his best finish was a respectable 27th in 2017.

With extremely long odds-to-win of +12500, we think Lingmerth is a long shot that’s well worth a small bet this week. Should you bet $10 on him to win and he pulls it off, you’ll walk away with $1,250. If you’re looking for an additional bet or a safer option, betting on Lingmerth to finish top-10 could earn you a more modest but still substantial prize.

How last week’s long shot fared

For the Players Championship, we picked Canadian pro Corey Conners as our long shot given his +6600 odds. But for the second week in a row, we struck out. Conners was threatening to make the cut when the second round was suspended Friday night, but a string of bogeys Saturday morning sealed his fate, and he headed home early with a six over total score.

The players with the best odds-to-win, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, also failed to finish the tournament, while Scottie Scheffler, who had the third-best odds before the tournament began at +1100, walked away with the $4.5 million winner’s check and the World No. 1 ranking.


2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)

Valspar Championship odds: The favorites

World No. 10 Justin Thomas, who finished T3 at last year’s Valspar, is the betting favorite this week with +1000 odds-to-win. 2015 Valspar champion Jordan Spieth, who finished T19 at the Players, comes in second at +1200. Defending champion Sam Burns is tied with reigning U.S. Open champ Matt Fitzpatrick, coming in at +1600.

You can see the top 10 and ties in Valspar Championship betting odds as of Monday afternoon below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2023 Valspar Championship betting odds (Top 10 and ties)

Justin Thomas (+1000)
Jordan Spieth (+1200)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600)
Sam Burns (+1600)
Justin Rose (+2200)
Keegan Bradley (+2200)
Adam Hadwin (+2500)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Denny McCarthy (+3300)
Brian Harman (+4000)
Davis Riley (+4000)
Gary Woodland (+4000)
Justin Suh (+4000)
Wyndham Clark (+4000)

Kevin Cunningham

Kevin Cunningham Editor

As managing producer for, Cunningham edits, writes and publishes stories on, and manages the brand’s e-newsletters, which reach more than 1.4 million subscribers each month. A former two-time intern, he also helps keep humming outside the news-breaking stories and service content provided by our reporters and writers, and works with the tech team in the development of new products and innovative ways to deliver an engaging site to our audience.