FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble watch: Who will make it to East Lake?

Not only did the first week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs produce high drama for the player that lifted the trophy, but it also saw major movement toward the other end of the standings with who did and didn’t make the field for this week’s BMW Championship.

In all, while it looked like more at several points, just three players — Viktor Hovland, Eric Cole and Nick Dunlap — moved into the coveted top 50 in the standings. With three moving in, three — Tom Kim, Mackenzie Hughes and Jake Knapp — moved out, Kim doing so in dramatic fashion, making six on the final three holes to become the first man out.

Others, like Keegan Bradley, just squeaked out a berth in the BMW Championship, and by extension, all eight of next year’s Signature Events. Bradley came into the week at 39th in the standings and finished T59 in Memphis, but that was just enough to keep him as the last man in the field at Castle Pines.

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My colleague James Colgan summarized what it now means to earn that top 50 berth, but what comes next is still the ultimate prize with a spot in the Tour Championship. In addition to entry into the Signature Events, Tour Championship participants get a two-year exemption on Tour, entry into the Masters and, traditionally, spots in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. Not to mention they are also jockeying for position in the Tour Championship’s unique staggered-strokes format where they will play for the now-$100 million FedEx Cup bonus pool.

This season, based on the current standings, the top 19 players in the BMW Championship are locked into making next week’s field in Atlanta, and according to our friends at Data Golf, four more players have at least a 98-percent chance of advancing to East Lake.

That leaves us with 27 players on and around the bubble this week in Colorado. Keep reading below for more on this week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble at the BMW Championship.

BMW Championship top 30 bubble

No. 25 Jason Day: It was a well-timed return to the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings last year with Day’s first win in five years in Dallas. While he hasn’t been quite as stellar as 2023, Day has quietly put together four top-10s and eight top-25s this year, not counting a T9 at the Olympics.

No. 29 Brian Harman: Last year’s Champion Golfer of the Year has been quiet as well in 2023. He’s made the cut in all but two of his starts this season and none since the Masters and racked up 10 top 25s, but just three were top 10s.

No. 30 Denny McCarthy: This week’s bubble boy is probably one of the most dangerous putters on Tour, especially after he put on one of the greatest PGA Tour putting performances of all-time in coming oh so close at the Valero Texas Open this spring. McCarthy has been in the top 40 in the FedEx Cup the past two seasons, but the 31-year-old has never gone all the way to East Lake.

No. 31 Tommy Fleetwood: The Olympic silver medalist has been consistent all season, missing just two cuts, but is hindered by the fact that he’s made just 17 PGA Tour starts. He’ll need a solid week if he is to have a chance at repeating last year’s 6th place FedEx Cup finish.

No. 32 Chris Kirk: Kirk looked to be taking his game to another level when he pulled off a dramatic season-opening win at the Sentry to become the season’s first FedEx Cup leader. Since then, he’s recorded just one top 10 and his best finish this summer was a T26 at the U.S. Open.

No. 35 Stephan Jaeger: The only man to take down Scottie Scheffler in the months of March and April hasn’t had the second half of the season to match his strong opener. He came into the playoffs having missed three of his last four cuts and finished T40 last week in Memphis.

No. 36 Matt Fitzpatrick: The Brit has been a factor in the last two Tour Championships (9th in 2023, 15th in 2022), but hasn’t been near the top of a leaderboard since he finished T5 at the Memorial. A wrist injury forced him out of the Olympics, but he rebounded nicely with a T18 in Memphis. He might need to do better this week.

No. 37 Will Zalatoris: Zalatoris has had an up-and-down return from injury this season after he opened the year with three top-10s in five starts from the Genesis to the Masters. Then he had a flare-up in June and WD’d from the Rocket Mortgage and missed his next three cuts. He seemed to find some form last week at the site of his first win in Memphis. Zalatoris has also strangely never made it to East Lake since he got hurt right after his 2022 win at the FedEx St. Jude.

No. 39 Cameron Young: Young has added another runner-up this season to his career total of seven, the most of anyone without a win in the last 40 years, and six top-10s. He’s also only missed one cut all year. So why is he so far down the list? In his 12 non-top-25 starts, he finished outside the top 50 half the time.

No. 41 Adam Scott: Scott can feel rest assured that he will be in all eight Signature Events next season after needing sponsor’s exemptions to five of them this year. His game also seems to be peaking at the right time, having finished 2nd, T10 and T18 in his last three starts, his first two top 10s since February.

No. 43 Max Homa: When Homa was one bad break from really giving Scottie Scheffler a run at the Masters, it seemed like he was destined to continue a three-year run that saw him pick up five wins. However, he’s recorded just one top 10 the rest of the way and was dead last in Memphis last week.

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No. 48 Nick Dunlap: Dunalp is on a serious heater to close the season. He picked up his second win at the Baracuda Championship (and first to grant him FedEx Cup points) and then was in the picture for most of the week in Memphis to earn a place in the top 50.

No. 50 Keegan Bradley: Next year’s Ryder Cup captain has Tom Kim’s implosion to thank for his spot at the BMW. His two runner-ups at the Sony and Fort Worth are his only two top 10s this season, but he’ll likely need at least a third if he’s to move on to Atlanta.