x
Skip to main content
Golf Logo
InsideGolf Join Now  / Log In
Can you quantify suspense? Our stats guru crunched the numbers to identify the best PGA Championships
SHARE
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share by Email
Golf Logo
  • News
    • Latest
      • News
      • Features
      • Shows
      • PGA Tour Schedule
    • Series
      • Tour Confidential
      • Monday Finish
      • Hot Mic
      • Rogers Report
    • Shows
      • The Scoop
      • Subpar
      • Seen & Heard
  • Instruction
    • Game Improvement
      • Driving
      • Approach Shots
      • Bunker Shots
      • Short Game
      • Putting
      • Rules
      • Fitness
    • Series
      • Top 100 Teachers
      • Rules Guy
      • The Etiquetteist
      • Emergency 9
    • Shows
      • Warming Up
      • Play Smart
      • Short Game Chef
      • Pros Teaching Joes
  • Gear
    • Clubs
      • Drivers
      • Irons
      • Hybrids
      • Fairway Woods
      • Wedges
      • Putters
    • Other Gear
      • Balls
      • Shoes
      • Apparel
      • Golf Accessories
    • Series
      • ClubTest
      • Winner’s Bag
    • Shows
      • Fully Equipped
  • Travel & Lifestyle
    • Travel
      • Course Finder
      • Courses
      • Resorts
    • Lifestyle
      • Accessories
      • Celebrities
      • Food
      • Style
      • Betting Advice
    • Shows
      • Super Secrets
      • Destination Golf
  • Shop
    • Shop
      • Clubs
      • Shafts
      • Training Aids
      • Balls
      • Bags
      • Technology
      • Apparel
      • Accessories
      • Our Picks
      • Shop All
    • Collections
      • The GOLF Collection
      • The Birdie Juice Collection
      • The Fully Equipped Collection
      • Shop All
  • Newsletters
    • Sign Up for GOLF’s Newsletters
      • Hot Mic
      • Monday Finish
      • Play Smart
      • Our Picks
      • Top Stories
      • Sign Up for All
  • News
    • Latest News
    • Features
    • Shows
    • PGA Tour Schedule
  • Instruction
    • All Instruction
    • Driving
    • Approach Shots
    • Bunker Shots
    • Short Game
    • Putting
    • Rules
    • Fitness
  • Gear
    • All Gear
    • Drivers
    • Irons
    • Hybrids
    • Fairway Woods
    • Wedges
    • Putters
    • Balls
    • Shoes
    • Apparel
    • Golf Accessories
  • Travel & Lifestyle
    • All Travel
    • All Lifestyle
    • Course Finder
    • Courses
    • Resorts
    • Accessories
    • Celebrities
    • Food
    • Style
    • Betting Advice
  • Series
    • Tour Confidential
    • Monday Finish
    • Hot Mic
    • Rogers Report
    • Rules Guy
    • The Etiquetteist
    • Emergency 9
    • ClubTest
    • Winner’s Bag
  • Shows
    • The Scoop
    • Subpar
    • Seen & Heard
    • Warming Up
    • Play Smart
    • Short Game Chef
    • Pros Teaching Joes
    • Fully Equipped
    • Super Secrets
    • Destination Golf
  • Shop
    • Clubs
    • Shafts
    • Training Aids
    • Balls
    • Bags
    • Technology
    • Apparel
    • Accessories
    • The GOLF Collection
    • The Birdie Juice Collection
    • The Fully Equipped Collection
  • Newsletters
    • Hot Mic
    • Monday Finish
    • Play Smart
    • Top Stories
    • Our Picks
    • Sign Up for All
InsideGolf Join Now  / Log In
InsideGolf

Great for yourself...or your Dad

InsideGOLF
Features

Can you quantify suspense? Our stats guru crunched the numbers to identify the best PGA Championships

By: Mark Broadie
May 13, 2021
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share by Email

Rory McIlroy parred his final hole in the dark to claim the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla. But where does his win rank in terms of suspense?

Getty Images

Every major championship comes with buzz and buildup. But in the fall of 1927, as the PGA Championship approached, the air of suspense was especially thick. Walter Hagen, the 1921 PGA winner, had also claimed the crown in ’24, ’25 and ’26. Now, he had a chance at something historic: an unprecedented four straight victories in a major. No wonder the atmosphere was electric.

Suspense, the time when the outcome of a contest is in doubt, is a squishy concept, tough to measure. But we’re all familiar with its effects. When a basketball team is up 30 points at the half, I usually won’t bother watching through the final buzzer. On the other hand, if the game is tight, I’m glued to my seat.

The same applies to golf tournaments, which made me wonder: Is there a way to quantify suspense? And, if so, which PGA Championship in the era of Tour stats — starting in 1983 — offered the most sustained fourth-round suspense?

To quantify “sustained suspense,” I turned to win probability, which was useful in identifying the best major-less player and in measuring high-leverage, or “clutch,” performance earlier this year. Win probability is a helpful metric because suspense is a function of uncertainty, and uncertainty increases with the number of players who have a realistic chance of winning.

If, for example, at the start of the fourth round, the largest win probability for any single player is 20 percent (and the rest of the field has an 80 percent share), the outcome is more in doubt than it is when the largest win probability for any player is 70 (and the rest of the field has a 30 percent chance of winning). In other words, the lower the win probability for the player in the strongest position, the more suspenseful the final round.

Features
Tiger Woods
Mark Broadie: These are the hottest 5-event stretches of the modern PGA Tour era
By: Mark Broadie

With that understanding, I started crunching numbers. To measure sustained suspense, I looked at maximum win probability at the beginning of the fourth round and then at six other times during the last two and a half hours of regulation play. For each event, I combined those seven numbers and put them on a scale from zero to 100, where 100 is the highest possible suspense score.

To validate this method, I first searched for the least suspenseful PGA Championship fourth round since 1983.

That honor goes to the 2019 PGA, won by Brooks Koepka, with a suspense score of 6.2 on the 100-point scale. No shock, really, given that Koepka started the fourth round with a seven-stroke advantage and never relinquished his lead, despite a charge by Dustin Johnson.

The 6.2 suspense ranking squares with my own experience of watching that Sunday: Though DJ briefly made it close, the final outcome never really felt in doubt.

On the flip side, the 1987 PGA was a nail-biter, and the numbers bear that out: The tournament, which was won by future Hall of Famer Larry Nelson, had a suspense score of 97.0, the highest of any PGA I measured. The final round began with a clustered leaderboard, with Nelson, Ray Floyd, Seve Ballesteros and Lanny Wadkins within three shots of the co-leaders, Mark McCumber and D.A. Weibring. And it remained a crowded horse race throughout the day. With four holes to play, Nelson and Scott Hoch were tied for the lead, and three others were within two strokes. Nelson and Wadkins wound up in a playoff, which Nelson won for this third major title.

As for the 1927 PGA, it lived up to the hype. Hagen wound up winning, 1 up, over Joe Turnesa (the PGA used a matchplay format in those days) for his fourth victory in a row. Exciting. But not quite as riveting as what transpired at the PGA in ’23, the year before Hagen kicked off his historic streak. In that event, held at Pelham Country Club in New York, where I happen to be a member, Hagen made it to the 36-hole final against defending champ Gene Sarazen. Their match was even after 18 holes, and even again after 36. The outcome was decided when Sarazen prevailed on the second playoff hole. Talk about suspense!

Check out our selection of range finders at every price point

Shop now
Izzo Swami KISS Golf

Izzo Swami KISS Golf

$79.99
View Product
Blue Tees Series 2 Tour

Blue Tees Series 2 Tour

$169.99
View Product
SkyGolf SkyCaddie LX5 Ceramic Bezel Watch

SkyGolf SkyCaddie LX5 Ceramic Bezel Watch

$299.99
View Product

Latest In News

47 minutes ago

Why Rory McIlroy’s sudden frostiness is so jarring

2 hours ago

Viktor Hovland is ignoring his own U.S. Open gameplan ... and winning

3 hours ago

Hovland-mania, Scheffler's son, a TikTok star playing at Oakmont | Rogers Report

3 hours ago

Rory McIlroy's post-Masters malaise? Scottie Scheffler can relate

generic profile image

Golf.com

Related Articles

News
Two images of Max Homa staring at horrible lie in pine straw at 2025 PGA Championship.

Did fan's cocktail cause Max Homa's comically bad lie at PGA Championship?

By: Kevin Cunningham
News
Scottie Scheffler acknowledges the crowd after winning the 2025 PGA Championship

Why Ernie Els sees some Tiger Woods in Scottie Scheffler

By: Josh Schrock
News
PGA Tour pro Scottie Scheffler reacts after winning the 2025 PGA Championship

'Magnitude of force:' Scottie Scheffler's most impressive PGA feat wasn't seen

By: Josh Schrock
News
Sergio Garcia of Spain looks on while playing the 12th hole prior to the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Country Club

Sergio Garcia barely misses U.S. Open spot, likely snapping incredible streak

By: Art Stricklin
News
Collin Morikawa

It's tough to leave a major happy. Collin Morikawa explained why

By: Sean Zak
News
Scottie Scheffler, Ted Scott

Scottie Scheffler, hot drivers and 1990’s R&B: 50 thoughts on the PGA

By: Nick Piastowski
News
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the first two major champions of 2025.

Scottie's hilarious swing fix, Rory's silence, surprise PGA winners | Monday Finish

By: Dylan Dethier
Fairway Woods
Scottie Scheffler and a close up of his 7-wood.

Scottie Scheffler gamed a 7-wood at the PGA Championship. Here's why you should too

By: Jack Hirsh
News
Wyndham Clark on Sunday at the PGA Championship.

Major champion apologizes for 'inappropriate' outburst at PGA Championship

By: Josh Berhow
Sign up for GOLF's Newsletters
Get the latest news, the hottest instruction tips, new product releases, golf media insider reports and more delivered directly to your inbox. Choose your favorites now.
Sign Up
Categories
  • News
  • Instruction
  • Gear
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
Services
  • Masthead
  • GOLF Media Kit
  • GOLF Magazine Customer Service
  • TERMS OF SERVICE
  • PRIVACY POLICY
  • Opt-out of Ads/Sharing
  • Your Privacy Choices
Social
  • facebook
  • x
  • instagram
  • youtube
Membership
InsideGOLF Logo
More than $140 Value for JUST $39.99

INCLUDES 12 SRIXON Z-STAR XV GOLF BALLS, 1 YR OF GOLF MAGAZINE, $20 FAIRWAY JOCKEY CREDIT - AND MUCH MORE!

LEARN MORE

© 2025 EB Golf Media LLC. An 8AM Golf Affiliated Brand. All Rights Reserved. All of our market picks are independently selected and curated by the editorial team. If you buy a linked product, GOLF.COM may earn a fee. Pricing may vary.

Go to mobile version