Not seeing this course before on Tour makes it more of a guessing game as to what skill sets need to be prioritized this week. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation Gained. I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Good Drives Gained. I also looked at Scrambling, Hole Proximity from 175-200+ yards, Sand Saves, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).
As for correlated courses, I looked at a couple of other classics in the Philadelphia area: Merion, where the 2013 U.S. Open was held, and Aronimink, which most recently hosted the 2018 BMW Championship. I looked at TPC Potomac, which coincidentally was used to host the Wells Fargo Championship in 2022 because Quail Hollow Club was hosting the President’s Cup that year. I also looked at two major championship venues from 2022 in The Country Club (U.S. Open), and Southern Hills (PGA Championship).
I have five selections this week for an outright win. I also played the two shorter choices for a top-10 finish and the three longer shots for a top-20 finish.
Patrick Cantlay (21-1)
Some of Cantlay’s best work has come in the Northeast on Bentgrass greens. He has two wins at the Memorial in Ohio, a win at Caves Valley in Maryland, and was third in 2019 at the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black in New York, another Tillinghast design. He hasn’t missed a cut since May of 2024 and over the last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field for SG: Off the Tee, seventh for SG: Approach, ninth for Good Drives Gained, and 13th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He hasn’t won in a while but this feels like a track that is in Cantlay’s wheelhouse.
Hideki Matsuyama (33-1)
In looking at the connected golf courses this week, Matsuyama’s name continued to surface. He was 16th at Bethpage in 2019, 17th at Winged Foot at the 2020 U.S. Open, 15th at the 2018 Northern Trust at Ridgewood Country Club, and fourth at the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltrusol — all Tillinghast designs. He was also fourth at The Country Club for the 2022 U.S. Open, 10th at Merion for the 2013 U.S. Open, and finished 15th in 2018 at the BMW Championship at Aronimink. Matsuyama is No. 1 in this field for Scrambling over the last 24 rounds and is No. 2 for Sand Saves. He ranks 18th for Greens in Regulation Gained and is 10th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. In his last start, a 21st at the Masters, Matsuyama was second in that field for SG: Approach. Like Cantlay, Matsuyama too feels set up to do well here this week.
Keegan Bradley (50-1)
Mr. Northeast himself, right? The Vermont native and St. John’s University graduate, Bradley won the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink, finished seventh at The Country Club in 2022 and was runner-up at TPC Potomac that same year. As per the strengths of his game, he ranks top-17 in this field for all categories off the tee and with the irons over the last 24 rounds. He’s No. 2 in this field for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and is sixth for SG: Tee to Green. Is there also something in the soup here with Bradley being this year’s Ryder Cup captain and this year’s Ryder Cup being played at a Tillinghast course (Bethpage Black)? Can’t hurt.
Justin Rose (75-1)
Another guy who thrives at classic golf courses in the northeast and on Bentgrass greens. Did you see his putting a few weeks ago at the Masters? So much of Rosey’s success in his career has come in this type of setting. He’s won at Pebble Beach, Aronimink, Muirfield Village, and Congressional. His lone major championship came at the U.S. Open in 2013, about 12 miles up the road at Merion. Even at 44 years old, Rose remains one of the best in the game with the irons, out of the sand, and is 12th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass) the last 24-rounds. It is a common theme with all of our selections this week; Northeast, Tillinghast, classic courses, Bentgrass. Rose too fits the bill.
Will Zalatoris (93-1)
Another guy who makes a ton of sense at this golf course and in this part of the country is Jason Day. He withdrew however, on Tuesday morning. For those following along, you know we are already on him for next week at Quail Hollow. So in sticking with the WD theme, let’s go with Willy Z, who withdrew from the CJ Cub Byron Nelson last week. Both he and Day have battled injuries often but I don’t mind backing Zalatoris after a week of rest and the same goes for Day next week. Zalatoris has been money at the correlated courses, finishing runner-up at both The Country Club and at Southern Hills in 2022. At Tillinghast’s Winged Foot, Zalatoris finished sixth at the U.S. Open in 2020. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 10th in this field for SG: Approach, 26th for Good Drives Gained, and is top-15 for Hole Proximity from 175-200+ yards.
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