PGA Championship early betting guide: 4 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his early picks below for the PGA Championship, which gets underway on May 15th in Charlotte, N.C.

The 2025 Masters was the best edition I believe I’ve ever seen from both a fan and betting perspective — and I’ve been watching that event for 40 years. Having Justin Rose at better than 100-1 and then watching him somehow find himself in a playoff on Sunday was the completely unexpected, thrilling drama that only sport can provide. At the same time, it gave us a chance to hedge with Rory McIlroy when the two went to extra holes, and guarantee ourselves a profit. McIlroy completing the career grand slam when the dust settled, made for a truly perfect, storybook ending.

Of course, the Masters is the only major championship that is played at the same golf course every year. Over time, this has made for a much more predictable tournament — much more so than the other three majors in which the venue is nomadic. This year’s PGA Championship, however, is interesting because it will be played not only at the same course as the 2017 edition, but at the same course that has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 2003, Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. Like the course history we have for the Masters at Augusta National, we are getting a decent slice of it for this 107th playing of the PGA Championship.

A combination of both length and accuracy off the tee, Total Driving is an incredibly valuable talent in the game of golf. Hitting it longer and straighter than everyone else is quite the head start. I have always felt that there are two courses on the PGA Tour schedule every year at which Total Driving is one of the very most crucial skill sets for success, and those two courses are Torrey Pines in La Jolla, Calif., and Quail Hollow.

McIlroy is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the history of the game. It’s no surprise that he has won at Quail Hollow four times in his career. He finished 22nd at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Justin Thomas was your winner that year.

With McIlroy fresh off the career grand slam (and his third victory already this season), and Thomas having just won the RBC Heritage, these two will arrive in Charlotte in two weeks with maybe the greatest amount of hype surrounding them, of any two players in the entire field. These will be two players that I will not be betting to win the 2025 PGA Championship as they will be incredibly popular, in the crosshairs of the spotlight, and their prices will be taxed to the highest degree.

Rickie Fowler has a win at Quail Hollow and finished fifth in 2017. Jason Day has wins at both Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines — and took ninth in 2017. Patrick Reed was runner-up in 2017 and also has a win at Torrey Pines.

In addition to Torrey Pines, I believe there are also similarities and crossover success to Quail Hollow Club at Valhalla, the site of last year’s PGA Championship and Trump National Doral, formerly a regular stop on the PGA Tour and now one on the LIV circuit. Finally, Club de Golf Chapultepec where LIV just played last week and where the WGC-Mexico was held from 2017-2020.

I’ve been picking off some bets for this year’s PGA since January. I currently have four selections in-pocket, to win it outright. I’ve listed them here in the order of which I played them.

Ludvig Aberg (18-1)

I’ve seen this down to around 16-1 and I don’t mind that price. It was my first play back in January, immediately after he won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Aberg ranks 34th on Tour in Total Driving this season. Last year, he ranked fourth. Aberg was just seventh last month at the Masters and threatened winning it or at least joining Rose and McIlroy in the playoff before playing the final two holes on Sunday in four over par. Quail Hollow will play as a par 71 at over 7,600 yards. Aberg is currently No. 1 on Tour in Hole Proximity from 200 yards out or more.

Jason Day (80-1)

I have seen this still at 80-1 and I have also seen as low as 60-1. It was the second play I made, not long after jumping in on Aberg. I mentioned wins for Day at both Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines. His lone major victory is also a PGA Championship. In addition to two wins at Torrey Pines, Day also has five top-10 finishes there. In addition to his one victory at Quail Hollow, Day also has two top-10 finishes, including a fourth last year. Like Aberg, Day also recorded a top-10 finish at the Masters, taking eighth.

Xander Schauffele (16-1)

This was the third play I made, not long after the Masters. It was quite tempting to make a play on Schauffele to win the Masters when his odds got into the neighborhood of 25-1 but with his limited play in 2025 due to injury, I just couldn’t pull the trigger — and I’m glad I didn’t. But he played very well at Augusta, finishing eighth along with Day and one back of Aberg. That tells me that game his is awfully close to what we saw in 2024 — and at the very least, that he is 100 percent healthy. It is not often I like to bet on the defending champion but we mentioned the correlation between Quail Hollow and Valhalla, where Schauffele won the PGA Championship last year. Schauffele has also finished runner-up at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship for the last two seasons. Schauffele is extremely familiar with Torrey Pines, having grown up in San Diego and attending San Diego State University. His last four trips have resulted in finishes of 9-13-34-2 and he was seventh in 2021 when Torrey Pines hosted the U.S. Open. In 2024, Schauffele ranked 20th on Tour in Total Driving. He was third in 2022. Having more competitive reps under his belt, restored health, and a golf course at which he’s had tremendous success, I’m happy to give him a try to add a second straight Wanamaker Trophy.

Joaquin Niemann (30-1)

I’ve seen as high as 33-1 on Niemann and as low as 28-1. I played this just earlier this week after Niemann’s victory last week at LIV Mexico City at Club de Golf Chapultepec. It was his third win in just six LIV events this season. Niemann finished sixth at Torrey Pines in 2022 and was 18th at Quail Hollow in 2021. He was ninth at Trump National Doral at LIV Miami in 2023. His distance off the tee is massive. His Driving Accuracy is average. His Total Driving ranking, if Niemann was still a member of the PGA Tour, would be top 25.