Our expert likes Tommy Fleetwood's chances this week.
Getty Images
Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 Truist Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Charlotte.
Like a deteriorating autograph on an old baseball card, is some of the “signature” fading on these two most recent PGA Tour Signature Events?
As we spoke about last week, Trump National Doral and Quail Hollow Club are two of the finest golf courses — and tournaments — on the PGA Tour calendar, but we have jammed so many high-profile events into such a small window that it tends to suck some of the “out of the ordinary” from each of them.
Formerly the Wells Fargo Championship and now the Truist Championship, this week’s tournament has been one of the premier events on the calendar since moving to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., in 2003. Personally, it just seems to lose a bit of luster being sandwiched between another Signature Event and a major championship. That being said, I can’t wait for next week’s PGA Championship and we will have an article out later this week with some of our early selections for the battle for the Wanamaker Trophy at Aronimink Golf Club. But for now, let’s embrace yet another star-studded field and see if we can find a winner.
George Cobb originally designed this golf course in 1961 but I believe that it is really considered now to be a Tom Fazio design as he has been brought in for tweaks, renovations, and redesigns roughly a half-dozen times since 1997. Quail Hollow hosted the 2017 and 2025 PGA Championships and the 2022 Presidents Cup. It is the home to four PGA Tour victories for Rory McIlroy, including his first-ever, and was also home to the first-ever Tour win for Rickie Fowler back in 2012 when he defeated McIlroy in a playoff.
Right there with Trump Doral and Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow is very much a big-boy golf course, stretching to nearly 7,600 yards and playing to a par 71. The fairways are on the narrower side but the rough is not especially brutal, being cut to what would be considered average Tour height at around two inches. The greens are above average in size and are typically very firm and fast. They are a Bermudagrass surface overseeded with Poa Trivialis, but from what we can tell, that Bermudagrass is certainly beginning to come out of its dormancy and be reestablished as the primary species with overnight lows beginning to reach temperatures near 60 degrees in the Charlotte area.
I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach this week along with Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation Gained. Total Driving and Ball Striking will go a long way this week in determining a champion. I looked at Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and scoring on the Par 4s measuring 450-500 yards.
Let’s not forget, this is another limited, 72-player field with no 36-hole cut this week.
I have always leaned on the connection between Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines as it feels like one of the strongest correlations that we see on Tour, with Total Driving being a very big asset at both courses. Jason Day and Max Homa have each won at both properties. I also used other Fazio designs, Congaree (2022 CJ Cup) and Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship) to provide some pointers. And finally, I took a glance at the aforementioned Trump National Doral, along with Los Angeles Country Club (2023 U.S. Open) and Oakmont (2025 U.S. Open).
Tommy Fleetwood (27-1)
I was on the fade train of Fleetwood last week as he has been trending in the wrong direction as of late. That concerns me here as he lost strokes on approach last week at Doral and after a red-hot start to the season, his last three finishes have been 33-52-23. His price has now drifted and combined with that, he arrives at a course at which he has had great success in the past with a 13th, 14th, and fifth-place finish. He was also fifth at Torrey Pines last year when the Genesis Invitational was played there, fifth at the U.S. Open at LACC, and was fourth at Congaree in 2022 — so the set-up seems to be one that suits his eye and maybe that will be enough to jump start his game once again. We really haven’t seen a price this high on Fleetwood all season, yet he is still a top 10 player in the game and one of the shorter-priced favorites to win here this week. He ranks eighth on Tour in SG: Tee to Green, is 10th for Driving Accuracy, and is 24th in Scrambling. He could also be a very strong top 20 play.
Si Woo Kim (30-1)
This number is getting harder to find but I don’t mind anything better than 25-1. Quite impressively, Kim has finished top 10 in half of his starts this season, taking third and fourth in his last two times out. Last week in South Florida, Kim was fifth in that field for SG: Approach and No. 1 for SG: Around the Green. He does that again, and he’ll likely be right there again, in contention to win. He took eighth here at Quail Hollow in last year’s PGA Championship and was 16th at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. Earlier this season he was runner-up at Torrey Pines. I believe he is one of the better, if not best, value prices on the board this week.
Gary Woodland at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.Getty Images
Gary Woodland (80-1)
This was another big price I found but I am still seeing it available at major books. Quite the discrepancy in the market as I am seeing Woodland as low as 50-1 at some shops. Let’s remember, this was one of the feel-good stories of the year when Woodland found the winner’s circle at the Houston Open back in March. He is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, ranking second on Tour in Driving Distance. He is 31st in Ball Striking, 13th for SG: Off the Tee, and the flatstick is firing too, ranking 30th on Tour in SG: Putting. Woodland has two top-5 finishes at Quail Hollow, and three top-12 finishes at Torrey Pines.
Taylor Pendrith (130-1)
Pendrith is probably another great candidate for a Finish Position play but getting all the way to the pole position is possible too, as the big-hitting Canadian has proven in the past. He’s been as high as 10th at the Wells Fargo and was fifth here last year at the PGA Championship. He has twice finished top 10 at Torrey Pines. Pendrith has been very mediocre since finishing sixth at the Sony Open to begin the season, but last week at Doral, he showed some signs, shooting under par on three of the four days. He ranked eighth in the field last week for SG: Off the Tee, was ninth in Driving Distance, 18th for SG: Approach, and was No. 1 for Greens in Regulation.
A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Brady Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer.
