Rocket Mortgage Classic betting guide: 4 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which gets underway Thursday in Detroit, Mich. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

Whew. Everyone please wipe your brow and perform one, big, collective exhale. 

The past seven weeks have been quite the run of big-time events in golf. We’ve seen two major championships, three Signature Events, and two of the longest-standing classics in golf, the Canadian Open and the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. 

The Rocket Mortgage Classic receives the unfortunate placement on the schedule of having to follow all of this and thus does not have the star-studded field that we’ve become accustomed to over the last two months. That doesn’t mean we can’t bet on it though. 

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is relatively new to the PGA Tour as this will just be the sixth edition of the event. It was one of the highlights of last summer when Rickie Fowler triumphed over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa to win for the first time in more than four years. 

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Like last week at TPC River Highlands, this too will be a birdie-fest at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club. The golf course is a par-72, stretching to nearly 7,400 yards. The winning score over the last five years, on average, has been better than 23-under par. 

The fairways are wide and tree-lined, but bordered by very little rough. This had led to bombers having success. Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, and Cam Davis have won here in the past but shorter hitters have had success as well. 

As far as the stats, I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week as well as Good Drives Gained and Birdies or Better Gained. Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting also made my list. Putting is key at any birdie party and this week, it is a bentgrass-poa annua blend that makes up the green surface. Hitting the short irons in close and setting up those birdies will be key too, so I used Hole Proximity from 75-150 yards. 

As far as similar layouts and style of golf course, I found a few this week, including another Donald Ross design we saw just a few weeks ago, Pinehurst No. 2. I was also able to draw similarities with The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open), TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson), Memorial Park (Houston Open), and finally, Glen Abbey and Hamilton Golf & Country Club — both courses used for the Canadian Open.

If you have been following along, last week was pretty rough, having Tom Kim at 50-1, getting all the way to a playoff with the No. 1 player in the world, only to come up short. We did cash the top-20 finish however with Kim and Tommy Fleetwood. On to Detroit.

Stephan Jaeger (30-1)

Jaeger was a winner earlier this season at Memorial Park and just finished 21st at Pinehurst at the U.S. Open. He fits the bomber-type mold and one of the best in the field for SG: Off the Tee. His putting has improved a great deal versus seasons past and he also specializes in short-iron approaches between 75-125 yards. All of this seems to suit him quite well at Detroit Golf Club as he has finished ninth and fifth here in the past two editions. Jaeger was also 11th at the 2023 Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.

Davis Thompson (35-1)

I’ve had my eye on Thompson for a while, trying to find the right time to jump in and this just might be the week — against a weaker field where his length off the tee can really work in his favor. He finished 24th here last year and was 21st at Memorial Park earlier this season. Just two weeks ago, Thompson took ninth at Pinehurst and it was just a month prior to that when he finished runner-up at the Myrtle Beach Classic. So while the course looks to be a fit, the form looks excellent too. He can also rack up a lot of birdies, ranking 17th in this field for Birdies or Better over the last 24 rounds.

Ben Griffin (65-1)

We saw Griffin flash earlier this month when he finished runner-up — and really should have won — at the Canadian Open. This year’s venue was Hamilton Golf & Country Club, one of our correlated courses. Prior to this, Griffin’s solid form had been showing. He finished top 16 in three out of four starts, including a 13th-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch for the Byron Nelson. He’s excellent on approach (ninth in this field over the last 24-rounds) and ranks fourth for Birdies or Better Gained.

Jacob Bridgeman (175-1)

With the lack of star-power in the field, it is a good week to try a long bomb or two and with that, I’ve landed on Bridgeman, who actually pencils out quite well in the numbers. Over the last 24 rounds, Bridgeman is 35th in this field for SG: Approach, sixth for Birdies or Better Gained, and is 22nd in Hole Proximity from 100-125 yards. Earlier this season, he finished 21st at Memorial Park for the Houston Open and was 14th in Canada at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. He is also 15th on Tour in Birdie Average and ranks 21st for SG: Putting.

Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week

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