Procore Championship betting guide: 5 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Procore Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Napa, Calif. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

After a quick break, the PGA Tour resumes this week, kicking off its FedEx Cup Fall at the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa, Calif.

Most of the stars we saw two weeks ago at the Tour Championship, will be taking this week off and likely, much of the fall series. The Procore Championship is the first of eight events making up the FedEx Cup Fall. Ultimately, this stretch will determine the top 125 players in FedEx Cup points and, therein, eligibility for the 2025 season, which begins in Kapalua, Maui, in January.

Sahith Theegala is your defending champion, earning his first and, to date, only PGA Tour victory here in Napa last fall. Two-time winner, Max Homa is here. And fellow Presidents Cup competitors, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, and Mackenzie Hughes round out the majority of the notables in this week’s field.

Silverado (the North Course) is a track at which a mixed bag of players have seen success. Solid Total Drivers with a good short game would seem to be the latest trend, applying to the event’s last four winners, Theegala, Homa, and Stewart Cink. Shorter hitters like Brendon Todd and Matt Kuchar have done well here in the past, as have pure ball strikers like J.J. Spaun, Emiliano Grillo, and Kevin Streelman. It is worth noting that many of these holes are doglegs and shorter clubs can and will be used off the tee. We need to also mention that while these fairways are relatively narrow and tree-lined, the rough is not very penal.

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I leaned on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week, along with Good Drives Gained. I also emphasized Scrambling and SG: Approach. In a lesser capacity, I looked at SG: Par 5’s, Birdies or Better Gained, Hole Proximity from 75-150 yards, and SG: Putting on Poa Annua greens. Note that these greens are actually a blend between bentgrass and poa annua.

In choosing correlated courses this week, I found other tracks that catered to work off the tee, approach play, scrambling, and making birdies. That led me to TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson), Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage), Pebble Beach, and TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children’s Open).

This is the first full-field tournament we’ve had since the Wyndham Championship over a month ago. With that being the case, I will play each of these selections for an outright win and a top-20 finish.

Maverick McNealy (22-1)

The Stanford graduate is definitely familiar with California golf and putting on these greens. He’s done well in the past at Silverado and at Pebble Beach, finishing runner-up at each tournament in 2021. In four of his last eight starts, McNealy has finished 17-7-3-12. McNealy ranks 41st on Tour in Total Driving. Over the last 24 rounds, he is eighth in this field for SG: Putting (Poa Annua), 19th in Scrambling, and fifth in Birdies or Better Gained. Last year, we hit with Theegala at Silverado, getting his first-ever Tour win. Let’s do the same here this season with another Californian seeking his first Tour victory.

J.J. Spaun (34-1)

Spaun finished 11th here last year and was 9th in 2020. In each of those years, he shot three of the four rounds in the 60s. Adding a fourth round in the 60’s just might push him into the winner’s circle. He’s another California guy who is very familiar with these types of greens and in his last two starts, Spaun has finished third and ninth. Back in June, he was 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, one of our correlated courses. Over the last 24 rounds, Spaun is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach, fourth for Birdies or Better Gained, and is third for SG: Par 5s.

Eric Cole (43-1)

In his last seven starts, Cole has posted two seventh-place finishes and a sixth-place finish — with the sixth place coming at Detroit Golf Club, once again, a correlated course for us this week. He was fourth here in Napa last year and has two consecutive top-15 finishes at Pebble Beach. He was also third last year at the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. Over the last 24 rounds, Cole is 29th in this field for SG: Putting (Poa Annua), 39th in Scrambling, 18th for SG: Approach, 11th in Birdies or Better Gained, and No. 1 for both SG: Par 5s and Hole Proximity from 100-125 yards.

Chan Kim (60-1)

Kim has played all over the world and has eight wins on the Japan Tour. He won in back-to-back weeks last year on the Korn Ferry Tour and is now making a name for himself in the big leagues. He has finished top 12 in three of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. Kim ranks 28th on Tour in Total Driving and over the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in this field for Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards, sixth in SG: Approach, eighth in Birdies or Better Gained, and is 13th in Scrambling. Four of our five selections this week are seeking their first-ever Tour victory and Kim looks to be another worthy candidate to do just that. 

Jacob Bridgeman (80-1)

Here’s a Tour rookie who actually has played this event in Napa back in 2022. He made the cut and ended up finishing 55th. Bridgeman currently ranks 121st in FedExCup points, so he will need a solid FedExCup Fall in order to keep his eligibility on Tour for 2025. That kind of motivation doesn’t hurt for a guy that has been in good form, finishing 12th and 19th in his last two starts. He thrives in three areas: Ball Striking, Putting, and Scrambling, all of which we like to have on board this week. Over the last 24 rounds, Bridgeman ranks 20th in this field for SG: Putting (Poa Annua), 23rd in SG: Approach, 26th for Birdies or Better Gained, and 16th in Scrambling. He looks to be another up-and-comer on Tour who has a shot to break through this week.

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