Charles Schwab Challenge betting guide: 6 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, which gets underway Thursday in Texas. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

We had not one, but two of our selections finish runner-up last week at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. After Bryson DeChambeau made a mess of the final three holes on Saturday, playing them in 3 over par — and Scottie Scheffler playing them in 2 under par — this major championship never really felt like it was that close again. Scheffler won for the second week in a row, adding a Wanamaker Trophy to his two green jackets, and the world No. 1, for the first time this year, looked like the dominant player we have become accustomed to for the past two seasons.

On to Colonial.

Scheffler loves to play in his home state of Texas and the man is back this week in Fort Worth, trying to make it three wins in a row as the Charles Schwab Challenge gets going for the 79th time on Tour. Scheffler’s odds for the PGA have been cut in half, as he is just slightly better than 2-1 to win this week. It is also worth noting that Colonial Country Club hosted the U.S. Open in 1941 and I believe can be a good piece in one’s handicap of the U.S. Open going forward. We are only 23 days away from the first ball being struck at Oakmont for this season’s third major championship. Since winning last week, Scheffler’s price there has dipped too, now just slightly better than 3-1.

Colonial Country Club is often referred to as “Hogan’s Alley” after Ben Hogan, who won here a record five times. Hogan won the U.S. Open four times and as I noted earlier, I feel many of the same things that made up Hogan’s game are still relevant today in Fort Worth and for the U.S. Open as well. Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation, Good Drives Gained, Driving Accuracy — all point to precision ball striking, which was Ben Hogan’s signature and can typically take one a long way at a U.S. Open. Diving in further, I looked at how players fare this week on Par 4’s ranging from 350-450 yards. Colonial is a par 70 that plays to just short of 7,300 yards. Twelve of the 18 holes are par 4s. I looked at Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards and finally, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).

Immediately following the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner were brought in to make some major renovations to Colonial Country Club. Many of the barrancas that run throughout the property were cleaned up and restored to once again come into play and present a hazard. Same with the Trinity River, bringing it more into play in certain spots of the golf course. Overall, Hanse’s team wanted to bring back the rugged aesthetics of what Colonial Country Club presented the players with back in 1941 at the U.S. Open and it has been very well received. Over $20 million was poured into the renovation. Westgate SuperBook golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman, has posted a winning score proposition this week of Under/Over 266.5, meaning 13.5 under par.

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Colonial is a shorter, narrow course, with a great deal of doglegs. Waialae Country Club, home to the Sony Open, has often worked well for me as a correlated course. I also used Sea Island (RSM Classic), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), and Port Royal Golf Club (Bermuda Championship) for my comps this week.

I have played each of the following for an outright win and a top-20 finish. For our longest shot however, I played for a win and a top-40 finish.

Daniel Berger (23-1)

This pick is similar to DeChambeau for me last week in that I felt it would be a very popular play, which I typically do not love, but at the same time, I couldn’t keep him off the card. He makes too much sense at this golf course, a course where he won before back in 2020. Berger also has two additional top-25 finishes at Colonial along with a runner-up at the RSM Classic last November and two third-place finishes at Harbour Town, the latest coming just last month. He’s finished top-15 twice and top-10 once at the Sony Open at Waialae. Over the last 24 rounds, Berger ranks very high in this field in every category I considered. He is second only to Scheffler when I crunch the stats. Will he finish second to Scheffler this week in the tournament? Probably.

Maverick McNealy (40-1)

McNealy was the only player to finish ahead of Berger at the RSM Classic last November, securing his first-ever PGA Tour win. He’s finished top-20 twice here at Colonial and has top-10 finishes at the Sony, and like Berger, just finished third at the RBC Heritage one month ago. McNealy, in fact, has two third place finishes in his last five starts. He ranks fourth in this field for Greens in Regulation Gained and is 15th for Good Drives Gained, all over the last 24 rounds.

J.T. Poston (40-1)

Poston comes off a fifth-place finish last week at the PGA Championship and has now made 13 consecutive cuts on Tour this season. He took 11th at Harbour Town in April and has finished top-10 there four other times. He’s also been top-10 here at Colonial in the past, at Sea Island, and at Waialae. Over the last 24-rounds, Poston ranks 21st in this field for Hole Proximity from 100-125 yards, is 12th in Driving Accuracy, and 10th for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

Harry Hall (75-1)

Hall nearly won here at Colonial a few years back, eventually finishing third. Speaking of third, that is where he ranks in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over the last 24 rounds. He is also 10th on the 400-450 yard Par 4s and 20th in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. The current form is solid with two straight top-20 finishes, including 19th last week at Quail Hollow.

Thorbjorn Olesen (80-1)

This year represents Olesen Part II. Roughly a decade ago, he had seven wins around the world and was quickly ascending into a top-20 player in the world before some off-the-course issues put his career on hold for quite a while. He has two top-10 finishes this season on Tour and was 33rd last week at the PGA Championship, where he ranked 11th in the field for SG: Approach, Greens in Regulation, and was 17th for Driving Accuracy. These numbers are nearly identical to his statistical profile over the last 24-rounds — where he also ranks 24th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass). After being reinstated on the DP World Tour, Olesen won in 2022 and in 2023. He’s looking like he’s ready to start winning again.

Nico Echavarria (135-1)

This is our long-bomb selection for which we have also played a top-40 finish. Echavarria already has two wins in his young PGA Tour career. He finished 41st last week at Quail Hollow for what is now his third-straight cut made at a major championship in just five career tries. At the PGA last week, Echavarria ranked 14th in the field for SG: Off the Tee, 18th on approach, 27th for SG: Putting, and was ninth in Driving Accuracy. In addition to his two victories, Echavarria has finished runner-up at both the Sony Open and at the RSM Classic.

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

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