Arnold Palmer Invitational betting guide: 4 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which gets underway Thursday in Oralndo, Fla. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

We have reached the second stop on the Florida Swing, the 10th tournament of the 2025 PGA Tour season, and the fourth Signature Event of the new year. Welcome to Orlando, Fla., and the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This week’s field is made up of 72 players. There will be a 36-hole cut, trimming down to the top 50 players and ties. Bay Hill is a big-boy golf course, for sure. A par 72 originally designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Arnold Palmer purchased the property in 1976 and began putting his hands on the tweaks and redesigns for the next four decades. Today’s version stretches to nearly 7,500 yards and is wall-to-wall Bermudagrass. The greens are relatively large, firm, and fast, and are some of the more difficult surfaces on Tour to reach in regulation. Much of that may have to do with the thick, penal rough that borders the fairways.

We have noted that Ball Striking is the overriding theme of the Florida Swing as far as what is the primary skill set necessary for success on this four-week stretch, and thus, I have looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation Gained this week. In addition, I have looked at Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). When you include the par 3 holes at Bay Hill, it has the largest collection of approach shots measuring 200 yards or more, on the entire Tour calendar, so I have also looked at Hole Proximity from 200+ yards and also success on the par 4s measuring 450-500 yards.

TPC Scottsdale is maybe my strongest correlated course this week. Scottie Scheffler has won both here and Bay Hill twice. I also like Quail Hollow and Memorial Park (Houston Open) this week. I also looked at Southern Hills, home to the 2022 PGA Championship, Olympia Fields, where both the 2020 and 2023 BMW Championships were held, and Oak Hill, home to the 2023 PGA Championship.

News

We also need to make note of the weather forecast for this week in Orlando. Thundershowers are expected to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, and while sunshine is supposed to return on Friday and Saturday, wind is expected to be a factor as well. We could have gusts above 20 mph on Thursday and Sunday. It is a little bit of everything it appears and seems highly likely that weather will play a part in this event.

With the limited field, one has to pay more for the top-20 finish but I have still done so in addition to playing each of the following for an outright win.

Justin Thomas (25-1)

It feels to me like Thomas is being overlooked a bit right now and that is understandable with his last win coming at the 2022 PGA Championship. I do like the fact that that win did come at Southern Hills, one of our correlated courses. Thomas has also had tremendous success for many years at TPC Scottsdale, most recently finishing sixth there one month ago. That was his first of what is now two straight top-10 finishes coming into this week, and his third overall of the young season. Over the last 36 rounds, Thomas ranks third in this field for SG: Approach and is seventh on the 450-500 yard Par 4s. He has plenty of length off the tee and is one of the game’s best scramblers. I like how he is trending at this particular tournament as well. This will be his fourth time playing the API and his finishes have been progressively better each time, 49-21-12.

Maverick McNealy (56-1)

Like Thomas, McNealy also has three top-10 finishes this season already and comes in this week off of two straight, with the first being last month at TPC Scottsdale. He ranks 13th in this field for SG: Approach, 19th for Greens in Regulation Gained, 17th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, and is sixth on the 450-500 yard Par 4s all over the last 36 rounds. McNealy also ranks seventh in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass).

Min Woo Lee (75-1)

Australians are typically excellent wind players and they have had a great deal of success here at this event in the past. Marc Leishman and Jason Day won in back-to-back years and Leishman has finished runner-up as well. Lee comes off of a 12th-place finish at the WM Phoenix Open and was 18th at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill. He is one of the longest hitters in this field and ranks sixth in SG: Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds. Lee also ranks 24th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. The form this season has been very good with three top-20 finishes in four starts.

Matt Fitzpatrick (95-1)

We are a bit removed from Fitzpatrick’s red-hot 2023 season but I can’t ignore how well he’s done here and at the correlated courses. He has not been spectacular yet this season but has made three cuts in four starts. The cut he missed was in Phoenix but he’s also finished 10th and 15th there in the past. He’s been 14th and ninth here at Bay Hill, fifth at Southern Hills, and sixth and runner-up at Olympia Fields. Over the last 36 rounds, Fitzpatrick ranks in the top half of the field in nearly all categories and is 13th in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Bottom line, I like his history on these types of golf courses, he’s a well-versed wind player, and nearly 100-1 to win is a fair if not generous price. 

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

To make your own Chirp picks and win amazing prizes, download the app here.