3M Open betting guide: 4 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 3M Open, which gets underway Thursday in Blaine, Minn. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

Major championship season has concluded and it is time to shift toward the PGA Tour’s postseason. Two more regular season events remain before the FedExCup playoffs get underway with the top 70 players in the points standings qualifying.

First up is the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota, taking place at TPC Twin Cities. The tournament is in its sixth year of existence on the PGA Tour, so we don’t have a great deal of history to pull from in our handicap.

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What we do know is this is a par-71 Arnold Palmer design that stretches to just over 7,400 yards. The golf course opened in 2000 and played host to the Champions Tour between 2001 and 2018. It is worth noting that Kenny Perry won three of the last five events played here on the Champions Tour. Perry was a tremendous ball striker, so we can use that in our efforts this week.

Water hazards are lurking throughout the layout making accuracy off the tee a factor. We have also seen longer hitters win here in Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau. The greens are above-average-sized bentgrass surfaces. As far as the stats, it broke down quite simply for me this week. I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. I wanted players who can rack up the birdies, hit greens in regulation, and scramble if and when the greens are missed.

Motivation can be a difficult part of any handicapping puzzle as it is not quantifiable but I have to believe that it is beginning to play somewhat of a factor at this point in the golf season. Players are trying to find their way into the playoffs and many also have their sights set on making the Presidents Cup team. 

As far as the correlated courses, I looked primarily at ball striking and courses where work off the tee are of the utmost importance. I landed on Innisbrook, home to the Valspar Championship, TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude), Sea Island (RSM Classic), and TPC Deere Run where they just recently played the John Deere Classic.

Going back to the Travelers Championship, our run of near misses continued last week with Shane Lowry at the Open Championship. It amounts to two runner-up finishes, a seventh and a sixth-place finish in four of the last five weeks. It bodes well for our top-20 finish plays but the pursuit for an outright winner has been unsuccessful since hitting Xander Schauffele at the PGA Championship. On to Minnesota.

Tom Hoge (30-1)

There aren’t many in the world that are better ball strikers than Tom Hoge. He is very accurate off the tee and is second on Tour in SG: Approach. He’s also an excellent putter and over the last 24-rounds, ranks seventh in this field for Birdies or Better Gained. Hoge has played all five previous editions of this tournament. He’s only once missed the cut and two years ago, finished fourth. Hoge ranks 20th in the FedExCup standings, so there is not necessarily an urgency to move up but he’ll need more steadily good play for the next month in order to make it to the Tour Championship, reserved for the top 30 on the points list.

Adam Hadwin (45-1)

Hadwin is currently 37th in FedEx Cup points, so there is a need for a push into that aforementioned top-30. He also has the Presidents Cup coming up in his home country of Canada, where he ranks 11th in the international team standings. The top 6 are automatically on the squad with the other six being captain’s picks. I like his positioning in both of these areas as they are solid motivational factors. Over the last 24 rounds, Hadwin ranks 33rd in this field for SG: Approach and is 25th in Scrambling. This will be his fifth time competing in this tournament. He finished sixth in 2021 and fourth in 2019. His lone Tour win came at the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook in 2017.

Chan Kim (60-1)

At 97th in the FedExCup standings, Kim will need to make a move in the next few weeks if he has any plans to participate in the postseason. His last three outings have definitely helped his cause. He was 29th at the Barracuda last week, 10th at the ISCO the week prior, and was 12th at the John Deere Classic earlier this month. He is excellent off the tee, ranking 36th on Tour in Total Driving. Over the last 24 rounds, Kim is fourth in this field for SG: Approach and is eighth in Birdies or Better Gained. 

Matt Wallace (80-1) 

Wallace is a player we used at the Scottish Open where he opened with a round of 68 before missing the cut. Similarly, he started out with a bang last week at the Open Championship and ultimately finished 41st. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 15th in this field for SG: Approach and ninth in Scrambling. He’s two for two in cuts made here at TPC Twin Cities, hits a lot of greens in regulation, and is a very solid putter. It’s clear he has plenty of talent — but just needs to put it together for all four days.

Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week

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