At just about any major championship, players need to do everything well and the Masters is no exception. Length off the tee is certainly a benefit when trying to tame this 7,555-yard, par-72 beast. Approach play is a massive piece of the equation. A tee shot will often favor a right-to-left ball flight and the approach shot will favor a left-to-right shot, so players must be able to work the ball in both directions. And on top of that, they must hit the right spot on these lightning-fast, undulated Bentgrass greens. When the greens are missed, incredible creativity and a deft touch is needed to get up and down from the shaved run-off and collection areas surrounding the putting surfaces. While birdies and eagles are very possible at Augusta, the margin for error is razor thin. One slip of focus, mental mistake, mishit shot… and a birdie opportunity can quickly become a double-bogey.
In my mind, a couple of the very most important skill sets around Augusta National are Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling, followed closely by Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. Other areas that I feel make up the soup of what is ultimately necessary around this course are, Par 5 Scoring, Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, and 3-Putt Avoidance.
It is also very interesting to me how “sticky” the correlated courses are with Augusta National. We pointed this out extensively in our Early Masters Bets article. The crossover success seen between Augusta National and a few other seemingly connected golf courses, is mind-blowing. Most notably, the Plantation Course at Kapalua (The Sentry), Riviera Country Club (Genesis Invitational), and the Old Course at St. Andrews, home to 30 Open Championships. I also looked at the Renaissance Club, home to the Scottish Open and Memorial Park, which has hosted the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the last five seasons. Finally, I used Pinehurst No. 2 as well, hosting recent U.S. Open championships in 2014 and 2024.
I have broken the selections up this week into two categories, the contenders and the long bombs. I have nine plays in total to win the Masters outright, which looks like too many on the surface, but again, six of these plays would be my main bets and the other three are longshots, all at triple-digit odds, for very small amounts of risk. I have also played seven of the nine selections for a top-20 finish and two of the nine for a top-10 finish.
Contenders
Collin Morikawa (22-1)
I noted last week that I bet this back in January when he finished runner-up at Kapalua, the second time he’s finished runner-up at the Sentry and his fourth overall top-5 finish in Maui. I am still okay with the current price of 14-1 or better. The Las Vegas resident has finished top-10 at the Masters in his last three trips. He’s been as high as runner-up at Riviera, as high as fourth at the Renaissance Club, and was 14th last summer at Pinehurst. The iron play is arguably the best in the game and his short game chops have been remarkable in the last 2-3 seasons. It is all about Sunday. The final round has been the bugaboo for Morikawa recently. If he closes strong this week, he may find himself as the owner of three of golf’s four major championship trophies.
Jon Rahm (16-1)
There are two Masters trends out there that I feel make a lot of sense relating to current form and form on golf’s biggest stages. Eleven of the last 13 Masters winners have had a win in their last six starts. Twelve of the last 13 winners have finished top-15 in one of the past year’s major championships. Rahm nearly checks both boxes, having finished seventh at last year’s Open Championship and having won once in his last nine starts. He’s played in 18 LIV circuit events. He’s won two and finished top-10 in every one. He won at Kapalua, Riviera, and at Augusta in 2023. He’s never missed the cut at the Masters and in addition to the win, has four other top-10 finishes. I find it a little bit surprising his price isn’t closer to 12-1. Rahm and Morikawa are the two I played for a top-10 finish. The rest, top-20.
Hideki Matsuyama (25-1)
Matsuyama is another player I bet to win the Masters back in January, right before he won in Maui. His number has since drifted higher and I’ve seen better than 30-1 on the 2021 Masters champion. He won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2024. He finished sixth last year at Pinehurst and has been runner-up before at Memorial Park. Over the last 36 rounds, Matsuyama ranks 13th in this field for SG: Tee to Green, is fifth in Scrambling, fifth on the Par 5s, and ranks 26th in this field on the Par 4s measuring 450-500 yards.
Brooks Koepka (35-1)
Barring injury or something having gone sideways, Koepka is otherwise always a factor in a major championship. He has five of them to his credit and has twice finished runner-up at Augusta. He has said that he has shifted into major championship prep for the last 5-6 weeks and that showed in his solo-second finish in Singapore three weeks ago. During his PGA Tour days, he finished third at Kapalua, fifth in Houston, and was top-10 at St. Andrews back in 2015. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks second in this field on the long Par 4s and is sixth in Scrambling.
Tommy Fleetwood (50-1)
It looks like a great number I was able to get back in February but it doesn’t mean much if it doesn’t win. Fleetwood is currently trading closer to 40-1 and I’m fine with that number too. I believe he’s playing some of the best golf of his career and it may have started with his best-ever finish at the Masters last year, which was a tie for third place. Throwing out last week’s final tune-up, Fleetwood has finished 22-5-11-14-16 to begin this season. He’s been 20th and 10th at Riviera, sixth and fourth at the Renaissance Club, was 16th at Pinehurst last year, and finished fourth at St. Andrews in 2022. He is 11th in this field for SG: Approach the last 36 rounds, eighth for SG: Tee to Green, and is 23rd in SG: Putting (Bentgrass).
Russell Henley (60-1)
Henley has quietly been one of the best players in the world the past few years. He was fourth at the Masters in 2023, seventh at last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst and took fifth last July at the Open Championship. He just won the biggest tournament of his career four weeks ago, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, a signature event in which he chased down Collin Morikawa on Sunday. Like Morikawa, he doesn’t have the massive length off the tee, but both players are two of the most accurate drivers on the planet. Over the last 36 rounds, Henley is sixth in this field for SG: Around the Green, seventh on the 450-500 yard Par 4s, and is 15th in this field for 3-Putt Avoidance.
Long Bombs
Justin Rose (110-1)
We’ve talked about course history and course form. Justin Rose is a great example of a 44-year old who still gets around this golf course at a very high level. He has five top-10 finishes here, including two runner-ups, one of which was a playoff loss to Sergio Garcia in 2017. He has two top-10 finishes this season at Pebble Beach and at Bay Hill, both Signature Events. His touch around the greens is still world class, ranking 10th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).
Patrick Reed (115-1)
I jumped on this last week and the number has since come down quite a bit after Reed got out to a quick start at Doral during LIV Miami. He ended up finishing top 5. Reed won the Masters in 2018 and has since had three additional top-10 finishes at Augusta. He took 12th last year and also has a win and two runner-up finishes at Kapalua during his PGA Tour days. Reed played an Asian Tour event a few weeks ago and qualified for this summer’s Open Championship at Royal Portrush by finishing runner-up at the International Series in Macau. Course form and current form are both excellent. He also ranks 12th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over the last 36 rounds and is No. 1 in Scrambling.
Sergio Garcia (125-1)
This is another number that has come crashing down and with good reason, as Garcia is one of the hottest golfers in the world, currently. He won at LIV Hong Kong a month ago and just finished runner-up last week at Doral. He’s won at Kapalua, twice finished fourth at Riviera, has two top-10 finishes at St. Andrews, and has three top-10 finishes at Augusta in addition to his win in 2017. The ugly part is what he’s done since that win, missing the cut in five of his last six trips to Georgia — but I can’t ignore the way he has been playing for the last year or so, and especially in 2025.
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