Justin Thomas tees off during a practice round prior to the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland.
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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open, which gets underway Thursday in North Berwick, Scotland. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.
The PGA Tour goes abroad. In preparation for next week’s Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, golf first makes a stop in North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club.
Located next door to the legendary Open venue, Muirfield, The Renaissance Club has been around since 2008. This will be the seventh year in a row that it has played host to the Scottish Open and the third year that it is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. The Renaissance Club is not a classic links design but is certainly “linkish.” I like to classify it as a tribute to Scottish links golf, built by an American. That American being long-time golf architect Tom Doak, who is responsible for another American links-type course, Pacific Dunes, a part of the Bandon Dunes resort in Oregon.
The golf course is longer than average, playing to a par 70 that measures nearly 7,300 yards. There are five par 3s, 10 par 4s and three par 5s. There is very little rough to speak of and the seaside location brings the threat of inclement weather into play. The greens are fescue grass and, because of the threat of weather, will run at slower speeds.
Many of the biggest names in the sport are here this week, including local countryman and defending champion, Robert MacIntyre. As a combination event, the top 75 players from the PGA Tour are in the field as well as the top 75 from the DP World Tour.
If the weather is completely benign for all four days, this can turn into a bit of a birdie-fest and/or putting contest, but we have seen this tournament be largely affected by punishing conditions as well. If and when the going gets tough, ball striking will be the key. I looked at Stroked Gained: Off the Tee this week as well as Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Approach. I also used Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Putting (Slow greens) and performance on par 4s measuring 450-500 yards.
Doak performed an extensive redesign of Memorial Park, where they play the Houston Open. I used this course as a comp for The Renaissance Club as well as Riviera Country Club (Genesis Invitational), Augusta National (Masters), PGA National (Cognizant Classic), The Old Course at St. Andrews and the Plantation Course at Kapalua (The Sentry).
Justin Thomas (35-1)
Thomas has played in this event more so than many of the top-name PGA Tour players, having started coming to The Renaissance Club in 2019 when he finished ninth. He’s won at PGA National, played very well over the years at Riviera and has won at Kapalua. The price feels very generous for one of the world’s best iron players, scramblers and birdie makers. Often Thomas’ problem is putting, but it is often on links-type courses where we see putting neutralized because of the slower green speeds.
Sam Burns (37-1)
In his last eight starts, Burns has only once finished outside of the top 20. Like Thomas, he makes a lot of birdies and is an excellent scrambler. He is one of the better putters in the field and over the last 24 rounds ranks No. 1 in this field on the 450-500 yard par 4s.
Ryan Fox (60-1)
It was Fox who beat Burns in a playoff last month at the RBC Canadian Open. Fox picked up his first PGA Tour victory just a month before that in Myrtle Beach. He has 19 wins around the world and joined the DP World Tour in 2017. He has as much if not more links golf experience than most of the players in this field. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 11th in this field for SG: Approach, 13th for SG: Ball Striking and is 12th on the 450-500 yard par 4s. Fox finished 12th here in 2023.
Victor Perez (125-1)
With Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele all in this field, we are getting some big prices on everyone else, including Perez, who finished 18th at Memorial Park earlier this season. Perez has seven wins worldwide and three on the DP World Tour, including the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2019. Like Fox, he too has plenty of links golf experience and good current form. Perez ranks seventh in this field for SG: Approach and 14th for SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds.
Jordan Smith (125-1)
The Englishman is one of the longer hitters in this field. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks seventh in this field for SG: Off The Tee. He is 21st for SG: Ball Striking and is 17th on the long par 4s. He has twice finished runner-up in his last seven DP World Tour starts. He finished 12th here in 2023, shooting four rounds in the 60s.
Kristoffer Reitan (175-1)
Reitan has a win, two runner-up finishes and a fourth-place finish in his last seven DP World Tour starts. He is long off the tee and is one of the better putters in this field. This will be his Scottish Open debut but with his current form and the price, I had to take a flyer with the longshot Norwegian.
A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Brady Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer.
