CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which gets underway Thursday in Texas. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

After three straight weeks of very close calls, it sure was nice to bring home a winner in New Orleans with Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak, both players earning their first-ever PGA Tour victory. Congratulations to all of those who jumped on board. With just two more tune-ups before the season’s second major championship, it’s back to the Lone Star State this week.

The Grateful Dead once sang that Houston was too close to New Orleans, so we’re onto McKinney, Texas instead — a little over 30 miles north of Dallas. For the fifth straight season, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is being held at TPC Craig Ranch, but the golf course has undergone some noteworthy changes. What had been Zoysia-grass fairways are now over-seeded Rye grass. What had been extremely wide fairways, have been since narrowed and are now bordered by better than three-inch rough. The golf course is a very big property, a par-71 Tom Weiskoph design, that has been lengthened to nearly 7,600 yards. A birdie-fest is still expected, however. The winning score proposition bet here at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is Under/Over 261.5, meaning 22.5 under par.

There has been some inclement weather in the area, wind and scattered thunderstorms early in the week. The forecast is calling for more possible storms on Friday but otherwise temperatures figure to be in the high 70s with moderate winds around 10-15 mph.

I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week. Being long and/or very efficient off the tee and hitting greens in regulation will set up a number of birdie opportunities. After that, much of this will likely flip to which player is carrying a hot putter. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Hole Proximity from 175 to 200+ yards, 450-500 yard Par 4’s, Birdies or Better Gained, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).

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I believe the correlated courses this week carry some weight. Relatively generous fairways with little to average-length rough syncs with TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children’s Open), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), and El Cardonal at Diamante where they have played the World Wide Technologies Championship the last two seasons. I also used the Black Desert Resort Course in Utah, which debuted on Tour last fall. It too has wide fairways and very little rough — and is also a Weiskoph design.

We’re back to the traditional formula this week of playing our outright winner selections, also for a top-20 finish.

Jake Knapp (55-1)

Knapp got out to a great start here in 2024, opening with two straight rounds of 64, and looked like he was going to go on to win. He ran out of gas however, on Sunday, shooting just 1-under and falling to eighth place. He was in the final pairing last week in New Orleans and did most of the heavy lifting between he and playing partner, Frankie Capan. Over the last 24 rounds, Knapp ranks 28th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and is 11th in Birdies or Better Gained. I like the way this golf course should pair with his skill set.

Taylor Moore (66-1)

We didn’t use TPC Scottsdale as a correlated course this week but it is a Weiskopf design and Moore has been ninth and 14th there in the past. We did use Detroit Golf Club and Moore has three top-10 finishes there. Similar to Knapp, Moore excels with the driver and makes a lot of birdies. He’s 12th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and sixth in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds. Also similar to Knapp, I believe Moore is one of the best players in this watered-down field once you get past the Schefflers and Spieths. Getting a price of 50 or better than 60-1, I feel is a very good buy.

Rico Hoey (80-1)

Here is a player who is quietly playing some very good golf. Hoey has finished top-15 in two of his last four starts. He ranks No. 1 in this field for SG: Off the Tee, sixth for SG: Approach, 20th for SG: Putting (Bentgrass), and ninth for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards over the last 24-rounds. Last season, Hoey finished sixth in Detroit, third at TPC Summerlin, and 21st at the Black Desert Championship.

Joel Dahmen (100-1)

It just might be the right time to jump back on Dahmen after his brutal near-miss at Corales Puntacana two weeks ago. He made three ugly bogeys to finish on that Sunday and ended up finishing runner-up by a shot. I believe there might still be some value in the number here off that disappointment, but the fact is, Dahmen has been playing very well this season and might be very ripe to contend once again. He is one of the very best in the field this week, nearly across every stat we considered, over the last 24 rounds. 

Lee Hodges (100-1)

Hodges missed almost all of February and March with a rib injury but returned late last month to finish 11th at the Houston Open. He also took eighth last fall in Utah at the Black Desert Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in this field for SG: Approach and 12th on the 450-500 yard Par 4’s. He’s been carrying a hot flatstick too, ranking 19th this season on Tour for SG: Putting.

Matti Schmid (150-1)

Sure, this is a long shot, but I am surprised the price is this high. Against lackluster fields, Schmid finished sixth last month in Puerto Rico and was ninth two weeks ago at Corales Puntacana — and again, outside of a handful of favorites, this field is not all that star-studded either. He’s been as high as third at TPC Summerlin and was fifth last fall at Black Desert. Over the last 24 rounds, he is 16th in this field for Birdies or Better Gained, 16th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, 11th from 200+ yards, and is 15th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

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