Rory McIlroy last month at the Travelers Championship.
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Rory McIlroy says he would love to win an Open Championship at Royal Portrush, which is in McIlroy’s home country of Northern Ireland, and an Open at St. Andrews and a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. His aspirations speak to the appeal of winning a major — not only are you coming out on top in one of golf’s biggest events, but because they’re most often held at the world’s best venues, you’re winning at a gem.
He then added this:
“I’d love to win a PGA at PGA Frisco — not.”
McIlroy laughed (and PGA of America folks likely cringed at the dagger directed at the new course built just outside of their headquarters). But there’s maybe a bigger takeaway here as we descend into Open Championship week at Portrush.
McIlroy seemed in good spirits, and his mood had been a topic since he won the Masters in April and completed the career grand slam. As he spoke more last week, he also sounded motivated, which had also been in question since he left Augusta. The event matters to him. As does the venue.
As does making some amends. Five years ago, when Portrush hosted its second Open, McIlroy shot an almost unfathomable first-round 79, and he went on to miss the cut.
“There’s venues in the game that just mean a little bit more,” McIlroy said. “Frisco might get there one day, who knows. But yeah, and I think, as well, having Portrush from home and the experience I had there last time, you know, I want to — the Friday was amazing, the Thursday, not too much.
“It’s a little like [Novak] Djokovic won the Olympics last year, he knew that was going to be his final chance, and you saw the emotion and you saw how much it meant to him. You think about it, and you can’t pretend that it’s not there. But when you are on the golf course, you just have to go out there and play as if you’re not playing at home and just play as if it’s another golf tournament.
“But yeah, it obviously is a little more — it has a little more, like, emphasis. There’s something extra there.”
With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2025 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch
PGA Tour golfers aren't the only ones who can make some 💰 starting next Thursday. You can too! Here are a few tips. https://t.co/uldLYRZvRh
To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +5,500. Just a couple of months ago, Fitzpatrick described his game as “rubbish.” But at the Masters and, a week later, at Harbour Town, he said he found something. He didn’t get into specifics, but whatever Fitzy has unearthed, it’s working. In his past five starts, he has three top-20 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA, and he played beautifully at the Scottish Open. He’s primed for a big week in Portrush.
Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +18,000. Great links player and carded the round of the week (second-round 65) at LIV Andalucia. Feels like one of these major weeks where he might rewind the clock and remember deep down he has more raw talent than most of his peers.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. Karma is coming for Robert MacIntyre. The good kind, that is. He was the runner-up at the U.S. Open last month but warmed our hearts with his genuine reaction to J.J. Spaun’s winning putt. Now it’s his turn, and it’s at a place where he tied for sixth in his major debut back in 2019. He’s had a great season but hasn’t been able to win yet. Maybe that first victory (and first major) comes this week.
Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka, +4,500. The good? He has two wins this season. The bad? He’s missed the cut in all three majors this year. Although that’s why we can properly place him in the sleeper category. He tied for 22nd at the Open last year and tied for second the year before. He’s also coming off a solid week at the Scottish Open. He’s a good one to take a flier on.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Feels like the ultimate square play this week; he finished second the last time the Open was at Portrush, he finished second in his final start before heading over the pond and there’s a massive cohort of people who’d absolutely love for him to win. But he’s also an incredibly well-rounded player, one of the best in the world, and although he’s known in the states for not having a win, he’s done plenty of winning on other continents. The sentimental play may also be the right one. (Sidenote: I’ve been told by several friends to stop picking Xander every time, as it looks lazy, but just assume we’re tipping him every major, too. Also intrigued by Sepp Straka (66-1) and Daniel Berger (100-1) as Sunday contenders.)
Sleeper pick: Harry Hall, +11,000. Hall has been quietly putting together a hell of a summer; he enters the Scottish Open on a run of six consecutive top-25s. Will his elite putting translate across the pond? It sure did when he qualified for this event last week. Some others: I’ve been happily on Matthew Jordan the past couple Opens and he’s finished T10 back-to-back years; at 400-1, he’s worth consideration. Add in Lucas Glover (250-1) to round out your long shots. Add Daniel Berger and Sepp Straka if you’re looking for a few midfielders. Happy hunting!
Jack Hirsh
To win: Rory McIlroy, +650. It seems as though McIlroy has been searching for a new dream to chase for the past few months after he finally got over the hump at the Masters to complete the career grand slam. If there was ever something to motivate him to win another major, it would be playing one at Portrush. It really just comes down to whether his iron play is like it was at Augusta and the start of the year, or like it was at Oakmont.
Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Seems as though everyone forgot that Ben Griffin was nearly as hot in April and May as Scottie Scheffler. I like his game for links golf.
Kris McCormack
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +650. Rory’s back at Portrush, and this time, he’s got a ton of momentum. He finally got the Masters, he’s playing with confidence, and the crowd will be behind him. Feels like the stars might actually line up for a second major win this season.
Sleeper pick: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. MacIntyre’s been trending all year and knows how to handle links golf. He’s tough, confident and not afraid of the big pressure moments. Exactly the kind of guy who could crash the party at Portrush.
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. Not overthinking this one. Scottie may not be the best value pick, but he’s the most sensible. If he’s on the correct side of the draw, he’ll be in the mix come Sunday.
Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. He’s got two wins already this year and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 since early May. Why not bet on the Kiwi as a long-shot pick?
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Fleetwood bags his first major. He was runner-up at Portrush in 2019, and his form suggests he’ll at least contend this week.
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +25,000. At these odds, why not? The Irishman’s motivated. He’s in form, too, after his U.S. Senior Open win. And he’s a two-time Open winner.
Josh Schrock
To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. We saw signs of life from Rahm at Quail Hollow and he is still one of the best players in the world. Add in his great Open record and I think we’re ripe for a weekend that sees Rahm thrust himself back into the spotlight.
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +18,000. Rickie has been quietly playing some pretty good golf outside of an MC at the Rocket Classic. He’s a good links player who I think still has one or two quality major showings left in him. Why not now?
Josh Sens
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. It’s been a few weeks since Scheffler won a big event. He’s due.
Sleeper pick: Marc Leishman, +12,500. By his own account, he’s been playing some of the best golf of his life. He showed some good form at Oakmont. And like a lot of Aussies, he’s no stranger to the bouncy links golf of the Open.
Johnny Wunder
To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The Apex Predator is starting to look comfy again with this new putter, and if he can get into the final group come Sunday, nobody beats him.
Matt Ziance
To-win: Viktor Hovland, +2,300. History doesn’t lie. Ten of the past 11 Open champs have finished T3 or better in at least one of their five previous events. Hovland finished third at Oakmont last month, and the Oslo native is ready to add ‘Major Champion’ to his resume.
Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. With eight career international wins under his belt and his two PGA Tour wins earlier this season, Fox is in prime condition to shock and awe at Royal Portrush. The New Zealand native will feel right at home with the course (and weather) next week. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Fox lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday.
Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.
