10 2023 Masters best bets, according to a caddie who’s carried at the Masters
Tony Finau hits his tee shot on Tuesday on the 14th hole during his Masters practice round.
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Unquestionably, this week was one of the highlights of my career. The Masters. Augusta National. And this moment: I was fortunate to be on the bag in 2009 for John Merrick’s Masters debut, and I’ll never forget him birdieing Nos. 13-16 on Easter Sunday for a nice backdoor top-10 finish. (Notably, he played alongside Geoff Ogilvy that day — and he accomplished the same feat, putting one in on 17 for good measure. An Ogilvy wink when we shook hands on 18 is burned into my memory bank.)
With that in mind, let’s try to get hot again.
This will be fun. To use a gambling phrase, let’s try to parlay some of that insight into some cash. I’m a caddie with 20 years of PGA Tour experience, and I’ve jotted down some insights and potential winners for this year’s Masters. Like any good caddie, make sure to read between the lines and keep your chin up!
We’ll start with the biggest name — and the biggest topic:
— What to do with Tiger Woods, who is listed around +180 to finish inside the top 20? It’d be foolish to say he couldn’t after flashing some great form and better health at Riviera. With a weather forecast that could turn the weekend into a chipping and putting contest, Woods could certainly benefit, although his body might not respond as well. Fascinating watch. I’m in.
— I’ve got very few LIV picks on my card. That’s not to say that any of those guys couldn’t play well — it’s more that it feels harder to predict. I fully expect a few to be in the mix, but I’d be surprised if one of them won, especially with Cam Smith’s slow to start the year. Rookie Mito Pereira did catch my eye down the board.
— While you could make a case for any of the new “Big Three” to win this year at the National, I’m in Rory McIlroy’s camp (+650). On my podcast with Paul McGinley recently, he noted how Rory had started working with Dr. Bob Rotella and Brad Faxon and how impressed he was with McIlroy’s good play while front and center for the PGA Tour in its fight against LIV. Throw in the fact that he comes in with top form and a weather draw that could help, and I’m liking him even more. Not sold yet? He’s got a new driver that he’s hitting straighter and farther, as well as a new/old putter that was rumored to produce just 19 putts (!!!) in a practice round at Augusta a few weeks back. No doubt, Rory is being thrown into the ultimate pressure cooker this week, but I’m confident he can come out on top. If he doesn’t, a “somewhat overlooked” Jon Rahm, especially in DFS, feels like the more likely outcome than Scottie Scheffler back to back.
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— I’m in on Tony Finau to win (+2,200) and top-5 (+450). Having finished fifth previously, Finau dances down Magnolia Lane with three wins since last year’s Masters. His irons have been on fire so much since then that caddie Mark Urbanek has resorted to wearing special gloves while cleaning them — some caddie humor — and the same could be said for Tony’s putter. Diligent work with instructor Boyd Summerhays has gradually reduced some of the left-to-right curve on his massive drives, which will widen the Georgia pine corridors, and if the weather forces a short-game contest (I think it will!), Finau has the experience and creativity to hang.
— Let’s go with Collin Morikawa to win (+2,800). Morikawa has flashed in every stat category this year and returns one year after finishing fifth — with a memorable hole-out on 18. With minor setup tweaks in his putting (more traditional than gimmicky) and a chipping crash course on the West Coast, courtesy of Parker McLachlin, the Short Game Chef, Morikawa feels like the ultimate boom-or-bust play this week. One thing that you know you can count on, though, is Morikawa won’t shy away from the mental task on the final nine on Sunday. Not to mention he’s the best iron player in the world! In case of a bust, I’ve created a contingency plan to work experienced Masters mudder Jordan Spieth into my lineup and you should too.
— I like Sungjae Im to finish in the top 10 (+335). Known to have an “every year or so” merry-go-round with caddies, Im recently linked up with veteran Lance Bennett, who probably is the most experienced caddie to ever carry for hIm at Augusta. Throw in the fact that he’s one of the best in the field in poor conditions, and there’s tremendous upside here.
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— I’m all-in on Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 20 (+175). It’s been nice to see Tommy Lad reeling off more of these types of finishes since last year’s Masters. He’s even thrown in a win! Featuring five made cuts in a row at the Masters, including three top 20s, Fleetwood is entering beneficial veteran territory in his seventh try. And on what could be a cold and rainy weekend, he could showcase his elite short game and stand a chance to contend. After a deeper dive this week with the sloppy forecast, I plan to put this next to a Chris Kirk top 20 as well.
— Here’s a fun one: Jon Rahm to make an eagle in round one (+450). With a perfect forecast for the opening round and a late-morning tee time that should see warmer temperatures and no dew, especially for three of the par-5s, Rahm stands a good chance to pick up some crystal. As one of the best players on the PGA Tour with a longer club in his hands, it makes sense that Rahm is the current leader on Tour in eagle average and the best in the field with total big birds. Ship it.
— Let’s take a shot on Gordon Sargent, the No. 1 amateur in the world, to finish in the top 40 (+200). He can send it.
— Finally, let’s get weird with these: Joaquin Niemann (+6,000) and Tom Hoge (+8,000) as first-round leader. This is touted as the most fun bet in golf and one no active caddie would ever endorse — but there are a handful of nice options to target in the mid- to late-afternoon window of tee times that has produced the FRL for the majority of the past five years. With Niemann, you can’t ignore the something-to-prove motivation but that likely won’t hold up in the long run. Hoge, one of the best in the first-round business, is striking the ball better than 95 percent of the field at the moment and has made major strides in his putting. Long shots only here. The safer (lower paying) plays are Scheffler, Rory, Spieth, Morikawa, Finau and Rose.
As I like to say, good luck with your bets and enjoy the action!
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