What a consistent golfer *really* looks like, according to data

Welcome to Shaving Strokes, a GOLF.com series where the game’s brightest minds share their tips to help you, well, shave strokes! Today, GOLF Top 100 Teacher Trent Wearner explains what consistent golf really looks like.

Consistency is king in golf. Anyone can get lucky and hit a good shot. What separates the best from the rest is the ability to do it over and over again.

However, that doesn’t mean consistent golf is perfect golf. In fact, the game is so difficult that consistent golf probably looks a lot different than you think.

In the text below, GOLF Top 100 Teacher Trent Wearner explains what consistency really means, according to a variety of data points from Tour pros that he analyzes every year.

What consistency looks like

I have some great scoring charts that I create every year logging scores from PGA Tour and LPGA Tour players. Viktor Hovland’s chart from the 2023 season and Scottie Scheffler’s chart from the 2022 season are shown below. These charts show their ranges of scores from their best to their worst.

I make charts like these for a variety of players, and I love analyzing the trends among them. Below, I’ve listed some of my learnings and takeaways from this exercise which can help you learn what consistency really looks like.

5 findings about consistency

1. Everyone has their own scoring chart and there is a median number of all of their scores. That means, regardless of whether you’re a tour pro or weekend warrior, you have a 50-percent chance of shooting your median score or lower and a 50-percent chance of shooting your median score or higher.

2. Much to your chagrin, you cannot shrink your bell curve — at least not year in and year out. Fifteen strokes is the average that Tour players have between their lowest and highest scores. The lowest I’ve seen was Justin Rose in 2018 with 11 strokes. The following year his range was back up to 16 strokes.

3. Tour players tend to shoot their lowest scores just once or twice during the year. This is when all parts of their game are firing on all cylinders, with a few good breaks sprinkled in. It is unrealistic to hit this mark on any sort of consistent basis.

4. They also shoot their highest scores only once or twice during the year. This is when all parts of their game are not working, along with some bad breaks. It’s important to understand that while these rounds do not happen often, they are inevitable. It’s all a part of the natural ups and downs of the sport.

5. When you look at the average score of these Tour players and you compare that to their low score and their high score, unfortunately, their best scores is much closer to their average than their worst. Among pros I’ve analyzed, the average low score is just six shots better than their median, while their high scores is nine strokes worse. This just proves that it’s easier to make bogey than it is to make birdie.

2 key takeaways

So, what should you do with this information on consistency? My advice is that instead of obsessing over shooting your best score — or moping over your worst score — focus on lowering your median score. Tour players aren’t necessarily more consistent (relative to their skill level) than recreational players — they are just a heck of a lot better. That said, if you want to improve, you should look at two very important things.

1. First, evaluate your game and find weaknesses. This might be some low-hanging fruit, it could be finding more distance, hitting more greens in regulation, making a higher percentage of putts or getting your short game sharper.  Whatever it is, focus on trying to improve it on a daily basis.

2. Second, no matter how bad your round is going, do not give up. The handicap system serves a great purpose, but since it throws out most of your worst scores, it is not a true barometer for improvement. What is an indicator of improvement is your average score. Yes, it’s nice to shoot low scores, but lowering your average requires you to raise your floor and not allow bad rounds to get out of hand. Being able to scrape together a decent score when you don’t have your best stuff is a skill that is hugely important if you want to become a great player.