How much do fans impact PGA Tour players’ performance? This chart offers some clues

Professional golf survived, and sometimes even thrived, during the strange year that was 2020. But despite this success, the lack of fans at some of the sport’s biggest events certainly took away an important element of the game — dealing with the nerves on the biggest stage.

How would the back nine at the PGA Championship have gone differently if there were fans? Would the roars at Augusta have propelled Dustin Johnson to an even bigger margin of victory? These questions are impossible to answer, but they are fair to ponder.

This week, golf will once again be missing some distinct energy where it is usually present. The Waste Management Phoenix Open — specifically at the famed 16th hole — is known for its raucous crowds. And while there are a limited number of fans in attendance this week, the atmosphere will be nothing like that of years past.

The lack of fans will make the 16th a little less spectacular this year, but it also might make the hole easier. At least, according to some data from stats guru Lou Stagner. In a tweet last year, Stagner put together some stats around the 16th at TPC Scottsdale compared to par-3s of similar length on the PGA Tour. His findings were fascinating.

As you can see in the tweet above, it is much harder to get the ball close to the hole at the 16th at the Waste Management than it is at holes of similar length on Tour. In fact, the numbers are fairly consistent across the board indicating that the 16th plays tougher than other par-3s.

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The official scorecard yardage of No. 16 is 163 yards, so we will isolate those numbers, but that doesn’t mean the hole length won’t vary throughout the week. From the 161 to 170-yard range, players at the 16th typically hit the green at a lower clip, are further from the hole when they do hit the green and are further from the hole when they miss the green.

The biggest difference between No. 16 and other “normal” par-3s on Tour? There aren’t thousands of well-hydrated fans screaming at you on normal weeks. The 16th is more like playing in a football stadium than it is a golf hole — and it seems that those outside factors make a difference.

There are likely other variables in play that could account for the disparity in performance, but the grander stage at TPC Scottsdale is likely a determining factor.

This week, that stage won’t quite be so grand. Although the build still surrounds the hole, capacity will be limited. It will be interesting to see how performance is impacted now that the 16th is a little less hostile.