Picks to win the Players Championship (and finish Top 20)
Patrick Cantlay (16-1)
Cantlay is getting a lot of betting attention this week. I could have taken 18-1 but got greedy and waited, thinking I might get something a tad higher. Ultimately, I had to settle for 16-1 but I’ve seen as low as 13-1. This is our third time in four weeks backing the UCLA Bruin and while we have cashed Top 20 finishes, the outright win still eludes us. He was 3rd at the Genesis and 4th last week in his first ever trip to Bay Hill. Cantlay fits our criteria this week. He’s 4th in Total Driving, 19th in Scrambling, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Par 4 Scoring. He is also 22nd in this field over the last 36 rounds in SG Approach. He’s been tremendous on some of the comp courses with 2nd, 7th, and two 3rd place finishes at Harbour Town, a win at TPC Louisiana, and three Top 10 finishes, including a runner-up at the American Express. In his last five trips to TPC River Highlands, Cantlay hasn’t finished worse than 15th and shot a 60 on that course back in 2011. I feel like he’s primed and ready to put it all together this week at TPC Sawgrass.
Collin Morikawa (27-1)
I like it when it seems like one of the best players is being ignored or there isn’t much buzz in the betting world about that player. That feels like the case this week with Morikawa, the 10th ranked player in the world. He stumbled mightily in the final round at Kapalua to kick off 2023 (I remember it well as I was on him that week) and his stock has drifted downward ever since. He missed the cut last week at Bay Hill and did so in Phoenix, too — but he also recorded a 3rd at Torrey Pines and finished 6th at the Genesis. He is a Top 5 player in the field for Good Drives Gained, Fairways Gained, and SG Approach over the last 36 rounds. He also won the WGC-Workday at The Concession in 2021. The problem is the short game as it has been off recently. Over the course of the 2022-23 season, his Scrambling is solid, but it will need to return to form if he’s going to win here this week. With everything else he does so well, I believe he has a real shot and at close to 30-1, he’s almost an auto-play in my opinion.
Jason Day (32-1)
As with Cantlay, we took a shot with Jason Day to both win and finish in the Top 20. He delivered for us by recording his 4th straight Top 10 finish on Tour. I wrote about how he has sneaked up on us in the last five months. It has been an incredible return to form for the Australian and I’m going to back him again this week, on another course, like Bay Hill, where he has won. Day ranks No.1 in this field for Bogey Avoidance over the last 36 rounds, 2nd for Scrambling, and 1st in SG Par 4’s. In addition to his win here, Day has also finished 8th, 5th, 19th, and 6th. He has a Top 10 in his career at Harbour Town, a 20th at the Valspar, and was 18th in 2021 at The Concession. Though Whistling Straits is a far cry from a clone of Sawgrass, it’s also worth nothing that Day one the 2015 PGA Championship on that Dye design. As we noted last week, we’ve always known about his short game – but now the driver and the irons are working too. I have to take another shot with him as it appears he is destined to win again soon.
Tyrrell Hatton (35-1)
The Englishman has really been playing great golf with two Top 10 finishes and a Top 15 in his last four starts. He is 2nd on Tour in Total Driving, 40th in Scrambling, and 4th in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG Putting on Bermuda. He has Top 10 finishes at Harbour Town and Sedgefield and Top 25 finishes at Innisbrook and The Concession. He was 13th here at The Players last year. His iron play can sometimes get away from him despite ranking 28th on Tour in SG Approach. With his work off the tee and around the greens however – combined with his comp course history and current form, I think he’s in the mix again here roughly 140 miles from his Florida home.
Sungjae Im (40-1)
As is the case with Cantlay, we are backing Im for the third time in four weeks. Unfortunately, he missed a Top 20 finish for us last week by one shot. But we can’t ignore his consistency in all areas of the game while still getting juicy prices on him to win. Im ranks Top 21 in this field over the last 36 rounds in SG Off the Tee, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling, and Fairways Gained. He hasfinished as high as 13th at the RBC Heritage and 17th here at Sawgrass. He has a 4th place finish at the Valspar, a runner-up, a 6th, and a 9th place finish at the Wyndham, and has never finished worse than 18th in five trips to the American Express. If you also look at what Im has done on courses that measure less than 7200 yards, he ranks 10th in this field over the last 36 rounds on such courses for SG Ball Striking. I believe he’s worth another shot at 40-1 or better.
Si Woo Kim (90-1)
Yes, 90-1 appears to be an outlier that I came across, but I am okay with anything at 65-1 or better. Si Woo is a former Players champ and along with Webb Simpson, he is probably the “co-owner” of the Wyndham Championship with finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 1st in his career. He checks in with a runner-up finish at the RBC Heritage as well. To illustrate his prowess on these types of courses, Kim ranks 12th in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG Tee to Green on Pete Dye designed courses. He is also 5th for Bogey Avoidance and 12th in Fairways Gained. He’s extremely accurate off the tee and ranks 15th on Tour in Scrambling. I did not use Wailae Country Club as a correlated course this week but there are some ties – narrow fairways, Bermuda grass, wind – and Si Woo won the Sony Open there just three months ago.
Full tournament head-to-head matchups
Tyrrell Hatton (-135) over Jordan Spieth
Jason Day (-120) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Kannon’s season-long head-to-head picks record: 11-7-1
