Lurking stars, potential feel-good winners: 4 storylines to watch in final round of American Express

The PGA Tour arrived at the American Express in La Quinta, Calif., without its expected two headliners for the early-season stop.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler withdrew last as he continues to rehab from the puncture wound injury in his hand that he suffered on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, World No. 2 Xander Schauffele withdrew early this week with his manager citing a “medical reason.”

Those absences sting, but the stars in the field are going low at the AmEx (as usual), delivering a packed leaderboard heading into Sunday.

Austrian Sepp Straka holds the 54-hole lead at 23-under after putting together rounds of 64, 65, and an 8-under 64 on Saturday at La Quinta Country Club. Straka enters Sunday in good position to claim his third career PGA Tour victory and first since the 2023 John Deere Classic.

But he’ll have to fend off a crowded group that includes stars, several players searching for their breakthrough moment, and a veteran looking to snap a lengthy drought.

Here are five things to watch as Straka looks to close the deal on Sunday.

Stars lurking

Low numbers are there to be had on Sundays at the American Express.

In 2023, Schauffele fired a final-round, 10-under, almost nipping winner Jon Rahm at the wire. Last year, Kevin Yu carded a 9-under on Sunday but fell short of winner Nick Dunlap’s mark by two strokes.

While Straka will start Sunday with a four-shot lead, Jason Day (19-under), Patrick Cantlay (18-under), and Justin Thomas (17-under) are all capable of going low on Sunday to steal it from Straka should he stumble.

Thomas had it going Saturday before he missed a 3-foot-8-inch putt for birdie at 16. He then stepped up to the par-3 17th and hit his tee shot into the water. Thomas saved a bogey, but his late-round stumbles likely cost him a chance to have a real shot at winning his first tournament since the 2022 PGA Championship.

While Thomas stumbled home, his playing partner, Day, finished with birdies at 16 and 18 to finish at 19-under and in a tie for second place. After doing great work around the greens in the first round, Day’s iron play and putter carried him on Saturday. Per DataGolf, Day gained 1.56 shots on approach in the third round and 1.21 shots on the green.

In the third round, the Australian gained 4.05 shots on the field. Day hasn’t won since the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Cantlay, meanwhile, birdied his final three holes to get in the house at 18-under. He hasn’t won since the 2022 BMW Championship.

Hoffman’s time?

Charley Hoffman has been searching for a way back into the winner’s circle since winning the Valero Texas Open in 2016.

The 48-year-old Hoffman came close to winning last year when he lost to Nick Taylor in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. But Hoffman’s only two other top-10 finishes last year came at the Corales Puntacana Championship and the Barracuda Championship.

Hoffman has only finished inside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup once in the last five years (2020-21 season).

Ranked No. 134 in the world, he’s hopeful he can rekindle some old magic on Sunday.

“I play this game to be in contention, and obviously I had a chance last year at the WM Phoenix Open,” Hoffman told Golf Channel after his third round. “I love getting my juices going. That’s what I practice for. That’s why I play this game. I don’t play this game to try and make cuts and finish in the top 100. I try to win golf tournaments. You can only do it if you’re in positon tomorrow and I’m going to hopefully thrive. I’ve failed before but I’ve succeeded and hopefully I’m going to draw from all those experiences and hopefully I’m going to have a chance coming down the last few holes.”

Even if he doesn’t win Sunday, a good round should help Hoffman secure a spot in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the season’s first signature event, via the Aon Swing Five. As of Saturday, Hoffman has vaulted to third place in the Aon Swing Five leaderboard, which puts him in a good spot to earn a ticket to Pebble Beach with one event left in the “swing” after this week.

Will a first-time winner strike?

While they might not be the headliners, the final round of the American Express will have no shortage of pros gunning for their first career PGA Tour win.

Thirty-five-year-old Justin Lower will start the day the closest to Straka after shooting a third-round 68 to finish at 19-under.

Lower had the putter rolling Saturday, picking up 3.82 shots on the greens to stay within striking distance of Staka.

The Akron, Ohio, native has been knocking on the door of late. Last season, Lower carded five top-10 finishes, including a runner-up at the World Wide Technology Championship and a third-place finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

“I’m getting more comfortable,” Lower said after his second round. “Still, there’s still some discomfort there, for sure, I would say. It’s a little different playing at the top and whatnot, but it’s where we all want to be, it’s what we all strive for, so yeah, just really trying to take it one shot at a time, as cliche as that is, but that’s the best way to do it.”

Another pro seeking his first win is Max Greyserman, who fired a 7-under 65 on Saturday to give himself a shot to go low Sunday for his first title. In his first full season on tour last year, the 29-year-old Greyserman posted three runner-up finishes and six top 10s to finish 48th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Greyserman’s round Saturday was buoyed by a hole-out eagle from 156 yards.

The third member of the potential first-time winner’s club is Mark Hubbard …

A feel-good story

The 35-year-old Hubbard started his week 15-under through two rounds to put him firmly in contention. But Hubbard’s good play meant more to him than where it placed him on the leaderboard this week.

Many of Hubbard’s family members and friends have been impacted by the wildfires that have ravaged Los Angeles since last week. Mark’s brother Nathan lost his home, as did several others. Twenty family and friends are watching Hubbard this week because they have been forced to evacuate and decided to make their way south to watch Hubbard for a reprieve.

Mark lives in Texas, but that doesn’t lessen the impact the tragedy has had on him. With

“We’ve had a rough go,” Mark Hubbard told PGATour.com’s Paul Hodowanic.

“It’s a nice escape to be out there and not thinking about other stuff. It definitely makes it easier to realize that this is just a dumb game and none of this really matters at all.”

Hubbard’s best career finish came at the 2019 Houston Open, where he finished in second place.

A low Sunday and some help from those in front of him would make for a final round to remember for the Hubbards and the Tour.