PGA cut line LIVE updates: Spieth out? Rory in? Surprises, blow-ups, more

It’s Friday afternoon at the PGA Championship. We’ve got surprises all over the leaderboard; some dark horses at the top and some superstars fighting just to make the cut. So let’s watch together! My name is Dylan Dethier and I’ll provide live updates throughout the afternoon. Let’s get it going.

CURRENT PROJECTED CUT: At this point the cut looks destined to settle at 1 over par, per DataGolf. Their model now has that as the number with 100 percent confidence.

The PGA Championship’s cut rule is the following: Top 70 plus ties make the 36-hole cut.

Complete updates below.

SURPRISING PLAYERS TO MISS THE CUT

Let’s rattle through an incomplete list:

Shane Lowry (+2)

Sepp Straka (+2)

Jordan Spieth (+2)

Ludvig Aberg (+3)

Hideki Matsuyama (+3)

Justin Thomas (+3)

Keith Mitchell (+3)

Min Woo Lee (+4)

Patrick Reed (+4)

Sungjae Im (+4)

Patrick Cantlay (+6)

Jason Day (+6)

Will Zalatoris (+6)

Cameron Smith (+7)

Brooks Koepka (+9)

Justin Rose (+9)

Russell Henley (+10)

Dustin Johnson (+12)

7 p.m.: Rory McIlroy’s Grand Slam hopes for this calendar year remain technically alive, after a (mediocre) chip and two putts. But bogeys at 17 and 18 just took him from 1 under to 1 over and will gift him an early tee time.

The defending champion’s title hopes are equally not-quite-dead; Xander Schauffele is through to the weekend at 1 over, too. He’ll have his work cut out for him to extend his streak of 12 consecutive major-championship top 20s, though.

6:45 p.m. What on earth just happened?! First Rory McIlroy missed a shortie for par at No. 17, bringing him back to even par. Then, after Scheffler (5 under, and trending) and Schauffele (who’s 1 over, on the cut line) found the fairway, McIlroy pull-hooked one so far left it went left of the creek, left of the grass area left of the creek and landed on a hospitality tent. If it had settled there, he would have received a free drop, but instead it clanked off the tent and back into the penalty area. Another plot twist, though: it actually skipped over the water, giving him a stance and a play up near the green.

Never a dull moment.

SPIETH’S GRAND SLAM DEFERRED?

Look, even if Spieth made the cut at 2 over par, 10 shots off the lead, the chances he’d leapfrog the entire field, win this tournament and complete the career grand slam were…not good. But now the chances of 2 over making it through seem all but gone. Which means Spieth’s quest will have to wait at least one more year, as will the title hopes of the following folks at 2 over par:

Shane Lowry

Sepp Straka

Kurt Kitayama

Padraig Harrington

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

Tom Hoge

Jake Knapp

And it means urgency time for everybody at 3 over or worse.

6:20 p.m.: Things are looking bleaker and bleaker for the 2 overs, especially after Max Greyserman’s eagle at No. 15 just took him from 3 over to 1 over and Bud Cauley holed a five-footer for par to post 1 over. Michael Kim is about to post 1 over, too — which leaves just two players at 1 over par still on the course.

The guys at even par are taking care of business, too; just two of them have more than one hole left to play. At this point, the only real hope for the group at 2 over par is disaster for the group all the way up at 1 under par. Feels unlikely. 2 over is now T75.

6:10 p.m. ET: Whoa — suddenly 2 over par, which was T70 just moments ago, is now T73. That means the guys in the clubhouse at 2 over par need some serious help.

The good news? As the ESPN broadcast just reminded us, 16-18 is no picnic.

6 p.m. ET: LATEST UPDATES

-After a Bud Cauley birdie at No. 8, 2 over par is now T71. A true knife’s-edge moment.

-Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka are playing No. 18, each at 2 over.

-Xander Schauffele, who’s at 2 over, just hit the 15th green in two. He’ll putt for eagle and will swing the cut further towards 1 over.

-Rickie Fowler has now effectively missed the cut; he’s playing No. 18 at 4 over par.

-And by the way, Si Woo Kim just made an ace at No. 6 — he’s 5 under. No effect on the cut.

PHIL MICKELSON’S DOING…WHAT?!

…a little bit of everything, thanks. Lefty shot 79 on Thursday, which meant he was obviously going to miss the cut. But then, when he played his first 11 holes in three under, suddenly a miracle charge to the weekend felt like it was plausible.

And then came this.

Mickelson made an 8 at No. 12. And then birdied the next two holes. Through 15 holes he’s made seven birdies, three bogeys and a quad. He’s even par.

5:45 p.m. ET: Those insane things? They’re happening! And it looks like 2 over par is back in play, thanks in part to a brutal three-putt from 10 feet by Rickie Fowler at No. 16. That means 2 over par is now T-70 — so it’s just a matter of whether the birdies outnumber the bogeys the rest of the way home.

5:15 p.m. ET: Things are about to get insane around the cut line, partly due to the nature of the golf course; we’re going to see a bunch of birdies and a bunch of bogeys coming home. And when I say that I’m thinking of the birdie holes (7,8,14,15) and the bogey holes (9, 16, 17, 18) — but obviously two-stroke swings can happen elsewhere, too, like the par-4 12th, where Xander (now 2 over) just made birdie and Rory (now 1 over) just made bogey.

5 p.m. ET: Disappointing bogeys at 11 for Xander (now 3 over) and Rory (even). At this point Schauffele will be desperate for birdies at the scorable 14th and 15th — but given his driving struggles, first he just needs to hit a couple tee shots in the fairway.

Last week’s top two finishers, Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry, are currently in that zone; they’re each 1 over par through 14. Rickie Fowler is 2 over par through 14. They’ve got one last chance — and then they’ll hold on for dear life.

4:30 p.m. ET: It’s starting to get quite clumpy at the top behind Vegas at 8 under; three guys are at 6, three more at 5 and then it really gets bunched. A grand total of 37 golfers are at 2 under or better, which means that if you want to win this tournament, you’ll want to at least be a part of that pack after today. One candidate to join that group: Rory McIlroy, who is about to tap in for birdie at No. 1 to get to 1 under par.

Through 10 holes, their mega-group is a tale of three tiers: Scheffler is at 4 under, chasing down the lead. McIlroy is 1 under, trying to join that chase pack. And Schauffele is 2 over, still currently on the wrong side of the cut line.

WHAT XANDER HAS AT STAKE

Below I posted the photo of big-name pros with long made-cut streaks at majors. Xander Schauffele’s last major MC came at the 2022 Masters. What’s wild is that was also his last missed cut anywhere. Per the PGA Tour, Schauffele’s made cut streak of 63 is the longest active on Tour. Second won’t surprise you: it’s Scheffler at 53. But third? That’s Justin Thomas with 18. Have these stats been inflated in the no-cut Signature Event era? For sure. But the gap between them and the rest of the world speaks volumes; you can see who the two most consistent performers are.

Schauffele also has an historic streak of major finishes at stake: those 12 made cuts have yielded 12 consecutive top-20s. That’s ridiculous. If he can just make the weekend, it’s fair to assume he’ll keep surging. But with nine holes to play, that’s a big “if”…

4 p.m. ET: The projected cut line has shifted; DataGolf now has 1 over par favored rather than 2 over. That’s massive news for Jordan Spieth, who fist-pumped a par putt that got him to 2 over at the conclusion of his morning round. It’s also big news for everybody still playing who’s on or around the number, like McIlroy (1 over) or Lowry (2 over ) or Schauffele (3 over).

STREAKS IN JEOPARDY

…or already over. Check out this graphic from ESPN’s broadcast:

Hideki Matsuyama is in at 3 over par, which all but guarantees his streak is over. Ditto for Reed, who’s in at 4 over par. Cantlay is 4 over through 8, which means his streak is in jeopardy. And Xander is 3 over after an impressive par save at No. 7; he got up and down from distance after dumping his second into the water.

3:30 p.m. ET: Things are getting a little bit…chippy out there. Shane Lowry just flipped off the hole at No. 8 after a weird unfavorable-ruling-to-bogey sequence.

Xander Schauffele slammed his club into the bunker at 7 after dumping his second into the water. It’s getting late early.

Just for kicks let’s run through the pre-tournament favorites and check where they are now:

3 under (thru 5) Scottie Scheffler (+450)
2 over (6) Rory McIlroy (+500)
3 under (F) Bryson DeChambeau (+800)
3 over (F) Justin Thomas (+1800)
3 over (F) Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
Even (6) Jon Rahm (+1800)
3 over (6) Xander Schauffele (+2000)
Even (F) Collin Morikawa (+2000)
1 under (F) Joaquin Niemann (+3300)
8 over (9) Brooks Koepka (+4500)
3 over (F) Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)
5 over (8) Patrick Cantlay (+4500)
1 under (8) Tommy Fleetwood (+4500)
1 under (F) Tyrrell Hatton (+4500)
2 under (F) Viktor Hovland (+4500)

3 p.m. ET: Jhonny Vegas is in the house, even if he stumbled through the front door; he doubled 18 to post the current lead at 8 under, two clear of the field.

CARNAGE AT 18

As players come down the stretch they’re going to have extremely different experiences depending on which nine they’re playing. While the back nine has the scoreable par-4 14th (averaging 0.23 strokes under par) and reachable par-5 15th (-0.28), its final three holes, the “Green Mile,” are averaging 0.22, 0.32 and 0.70 strokes over par; No. 18 alone has yielded 19 scores of double bogey or worse.

Players on the front nine, on the other hand? They get the reachable par-5 7th (0.3 strokes under par) and the short 8th (0.14 under par) before playing the challenging 9th. In short, if you have a player with three holes left to play and he’s on the cut line, you’d much rather he be on the 7th tee than the 16th.

2:30 p.m. ET: Rory McIlroy just birdied No. 2 to get to 2 over par. Xander Schauffele bogeyed No. 1 to get to 2 over par. Theirs will be evolving situations — I’ll keep you posted. But let’s check in on guys from the morning wave who have finished their rounds and whether they’re in or out:

IN: Daniel Berger (E), Cameron Young (E), Collin Morikawa (E), Ben An (E), Austin Eckroat (E), Brian Harman (+1), Sergio Garcia (+1), Tom Kim (+1)

BUBBLE: Jordan Spieth (+2), Tom Hoge (+2), Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+2), Jake Knapp (+2)

OUT: Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg (+3), Justin Thomas (+3), Keith Mitchell (+3), Niklas Norgaard (+3), Gary Woodland (+4), Patrick Reed (+4), Sungjae Im (+5), Will Zalatoris (+6), Cameron Smith (+7), Justin Rose (+9), Russell Henley (+10), Dustin Johnson (+12), Michael Block (+15)

LUDVIG’S STRANGE MAJOR PATTERN

Ludvig Åberg played well on Thursday and posted 1-under 70. But today? He got undone by the “Green Mile”, going bogey-double-double as he made the turn at 16-17-18. And when he got to the scoring holes of 7-8 and played those bogey-par, his fate was sealed; he shot 75 to post 3 over par through two rounds, very likely a missed cut.

The strange thing, then: Åberg has played six majors and alternated between contending and missing the cut. 2-MC-T12-MC-7-MC, if this result holds. Pencil him in for a top 10 at Oakmont.

2 p.m. ET: Projected cut is still 2 over par. Vegas just got one of the wildest breaks I’ve ever seen; his approach at No. 17 just kicked off a bunker rake and onto the green. When you’re hot, you’re hot.

JUSTIN THOMAS’ MAJOR QUESTIONS CONTINUE

Justin Thomas entered this tournament as one of the favorites, and with good reason; he finished first or second in three of his last four starts and is playing as well as he has in years. Plus he’s a two-time PGA champ. But after rounds of 73-72 he’s on the outside looking in at 3 over par — DataGolf gives that just a 2-3% chance of making the weekend.

If Thomas misses the cut it’ll be his sixth MC in 12 major starts since his 2022 PGA victory. He has just one major top-30 in that span. That’s remarkable.

1:30 p.m. ET: Looking more and more like a coin-flip between 1 and 2 over par as the final cut line; conditions are perfect, so we’re unlikely to get the Friday afternoon carnage that can sometimes come at brutal major championship tests. Jhonny Vegas is winning the golf tournament by four. The morning wave is finishing up — let’s see where a few of your favorite pros have landed.

JORDAN SPIETH’S CHARGE

As Tiger Woods loves to say, you can’t win unless you have a tee time on Saturday. That didn’t look likely for Jordan Spieth after an opening 76. Nor did it look likely with about one and a quarter holes to play. But then he canned this 25-footer for birdie at No. 8 to get to 2 over par. A nifty par save at No. 9 finished off a second-round 68; he’s got a good chance to make it on the number.

1:10 p.m. ET: Make that 10 under par. Vegas leads by four.

1 p.m. ET: Let’s set the table here. Jhonny Vegas leads the golf tournament at 9 under par. DataGolf predicts the cut line will land at either 1 or 2 over par. The mega-group of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele tee off in 47 minutes. And Jordan Spieth is lining up a par putt to post 2 over par — squarely on that bubble. Whew!