Tour Confidential: Nelly’s Erin Hills chances, Rory’s decisions, LPGA’s future hurdles

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss Nelly Korda’s U.S. Women’s Open hopes, Rory McIlroy’s decision to skip the Memorial, debate who will be the next player to win the career Grand Slam and more.

Two weeks ago, Scottie Scheffler won the PGA Championship to pick up the second leg of the career Grand Slam, joining stars like Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm and others who are also halfway there (while Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson still have three of the four). Now that Rory McIlroy notched his slam by winning the Masters, who do you think captures the epic feat next?

Josh Sens, senior writer, @joshsens: Scheffler is the favorite by a mile. It wouldn’t be a shock if he completed it this year.

Jessica Marksbury, senior editor, @jess_marksbury: Totally agree, Josh! It’s no stretch to envision him winning at Oakmont next month. The Open may be his biggest challenge of the four, as it can be so weather and tee-time draw dependent, but it’s hard not to imagine him winning one in the next several years.

Dylan Dethier, senior writer @dylan_dethier: I like Xander Schauffele’s chances. His U.S. Open record is absurd; in eight career starts he has six top-7s and never finished worse than T14. He’s finished top 10 at the Masters in five of his last seven starts and has two top-3s, too. Ironically the two majors he’s won are the two toughest. He’s set up to be the next grand slam champ.

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McIlroy, playing his first major since his Masters victory, didn’t speak with reporters after any of his four rounds at the PGA Championship, and now the World No. 2 is sitting out this week’s Memorial, a Signature Event hosted by Jack Nicklaus, for the first time since 2017. Are you surprised by this move?

Sens: Not a bit. He’s made it clear that at this point in his career, he’s all about the majors. Is it a tactical mistake to skip the Memorial and risk gathering competitive rust? Maybe. But clearly this is how McIlroy thinks he can best prepare for Oakmont.

Marksbury: I was a little surprised by the decision not to speak. Rory has generally been very generous with his time with the media, so yeah, that stretch was a little jarring. But still understandable. Skipping Memorial is too. Given the breakneck pace of the major championship season, coupled with all the Signature Events sprinkled throughout, it’s tough to find a week to skip. And no doubt Rory wants to be as rested and prepared as possible for the U.S. Open.

Dethier: I guess the simplest explanation for McIlroy not speaking post-round is that, in the moment, he didn’t feel like it? But it’s one thing to do that mid-tourney when you’re not playing well; when he skipped out after the final round, I thought that was strange. He just won the career grand slam! He’s the Masters champ! Ironically, I’m more curious about his decision to skip than anything — was this some sort of message? — but because he didn’t speak, nobody got the chance to ask him.

I wasn’t surprised at all by him skipping Memorial, though. He’s an RBC Canadian Open loyalist now, he likes playing the week before majors, he’s been looking to play fewer events, he has the Travelers after the U.S. Open and, crucially, he’s looking out for him. If McIlroy skips the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, that’s when we’ll really start hearing about his schedule, though.

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The U.S. Women’s Open kicks off this week at Erin Hills in Wisconsin, which will be the course’s biggest event since it hosted the 2017 U.S. Open (won by Brooks Koepka). All eyes will be on top-ranked Nelly Korda, although in the last five years she’s missed three cuts and has just one top 10 at this tournament. Why hasn’t everything clicked for her on women’s golf’s biggest stage? And how do you like her chances this week at Erin Hills?

Sens: I wouldn’t make too much of that relatively small statistical sample. There’s nothing about Korda’s game that makes her ill-suited for this particular event. She also has two top 10s in the U.S. Women’s Open. It’s no secret that Korda went through some struggles in recent years, so a handful of missed cuts isn’t a shocker. Funny game, golf. That’s just how it goes. She’s obviously righted the ship since. This week, it is more likely that she contends than not. 

Marksbury: Well said, Josh. The game is fickle. Look at Lydia Ko’s ups and downs over the last several years. Erin Hills seems like a good fit for Nelly, and after skipping this week’s stop in Mexico, I expect her to be ready with all cylinders firing for the Open.

Dethier: You’re both right, but if there’s a hole in Korda’s resume, it’s that she hasn’t played as well at the LPGA’s toughest tests. I believe our Zephyr Melton looked into this and found that all of her stroke-play wins have come when the winning score is 9 under par or better; this will be a good week to keep the wheels on the track and grind her way into contention. The course should set up extremely well for her game. 

Besides Korda looking for her first win of the season, what’s your favorite storyline for this week at Erin Hills that viewers need to be aware of?

Sens: Extreme bias here but any women’s major offers the treat of watching Lydia Ko, a generational talent and one of the great kind-hearted people in the game. Enjoy her now because she has said she doesn’t plan to stick around for too much longer.

Marksbury: Lexi Thompson — in her “step-away” season — will be making her 19th consecutive U.S. Women’s Open start. That’s incredible. There’s obviously something she’s still seeking from her professional golf career. A U.S. Women’s Open win — a championship where she’s endured heartbreaking near-misses — would mean everything.  

Dethier: Jeeno Thitikul has been playing like she’s ready to challenge Korda for the No. 1 ranking and she’s coming in off a win; meanwhile, her trophy case is missing a major championship. That pursuit will be intriguing to watch.

Speaking of the LPGA Tour, last week it announced Craig Kessler as its 10th commissioner, and on Thursday he laid out his four “building blocks” he wants to focus on. What’s his biggest challenge moving forward and, if you are Kessler, what’s first on your to-do list?

Sens: The main challenge strikes me as a kind of catch 22. Kessler’s pillars include shoring up the circuit’s financial future and showcasing the game’s biggest stars. Hard to argue those. But to draw more sponsors requires proof that the events are reaching a large audience. And drawing a large audience is tough when TV/media exposure is so much more limited than it is for the men. This is an old narrative. Changing it is easier said than done. Player personalities are key for sure. We know that people are drawn to stories, rivalries — they want to follow the arc of compelling performers in big events. How you get those stories out there given the obstacles — I don’t have the answer.

Marksbury: All excellent points, Josh. I would add that I’m also not opposed to shortening tournament yardages a bit. Sometimes the length of the courses seems excessive. What’s wrong with a birdie-fest every once in a while? The more these women can shine, the better.

Dethier: Theirs is a different version of the same challenge every professional golf league faces: How do you make it entertaining? There’s no simple answer, but the most entertaining tournaments are the most meaningful events, they’re played on the memorable courses, they involve big-time players and their TV productions help elevate all of the above. As for Kessler’s role? He needs to think outside the box and he needs to be a hype man. Excited to see how he tackles the gig.

Happy Memorial Day weekend! Where are you teeing it up?

Sens: Stop rubbing it in. You know I’m working the holiday. But I am truly excited about my next tee time. The new Poppy Ridge opens May 31 in Livermore, CA. A high-pedigree, mid-price new build is a rarity almost anywhere. And particularly here in the Golden State. Can’t wait.

Marksbury: I too, have to wait until after the holiday for my next tee time. But May in Arizona is the start of my favorite time of year: summer golf deals! For diehards willing to brave the heat, the discounts are deep. My local for the next several months is Starfire Golf Club in Scottsdale, where a $150 summer golf pass gets me $20 green fees every time I tee it up until mid-September.

Dethier: I land in Columbus, Ohio late Monday afternoon for a couple Tuesday-Wednesday interviews at Memorial; it’s so far west in the Eastern time zone that if I play my cards right there could still be a twilight round in my future.