Masters picks 2025: How stars are looking heading into Augusta National

The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing started with Joe Highsmith doing something no player had done in nine years to win the Cognizant Classic. It ended with Viktor Hovland surprising himself while holding off Justin Thomas to win the Valspar Championship. In between, there was a long-awaited big win for Russell Henley at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a Rory McIlroy win at the Players Championship that had a little bit of everything.

The four-week romp in Florida gave us a good pulse check on the state of the game’s elite, with the 2025 Masters just two weeks away.

We’ll start with McIlroy, who now has two wins in five starts and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, seems primed to finally win the green jacket.

‘Complete’ Rory McIlroy

McIlroy (+650 odds-to-win for the Masters) opened the season with a win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he debuted a new mindset molded after his observations of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy aimed to do a better job at course management, hoping to minimize big mistakes and give himself more opportunities to hang in and win tournaments. Coupled with intense work to fix an issue with his takeaway, McIlroy plodded his way around Pebble Beach before hitting the gas on Sunday for PGA Tour win No. 27.

Walking down the 18th fairway on Sunday at Pebble, McIlroy turned to caddie Harry Diamond and uttered a phrase that could wind up prescient if the Northern Irishman finally snaps his major drought this year.

“Start,” McIlroy said, “as you mean to go on.”

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McIlroy arrived at TPC Sawgrass one month later and won his second Players Championship by defeating J.J. Spaun in a Monday playoff. The week started with McIlroy involved in an incident with a heckling spectator. It ended with him becoming just the fourth player to win multiple Players titles and multiple major championships. That McIlroy won at Sawgrass while hitting less than half of the fairways speaks to where his overall game is as Augusta looms.

Exhibit A of this different version of McIlroy? The flighted, non-stock 9-iron he hit into the famed 17th green during the playoff to knock off Spaun.

“I’ve worked really hard. I feel like I’m a way more complete player than I was a few years ago,” McIlroy said after the win at the Players. “Even in conditions like this. That little 9-iron into 17, the little 8-iron into the [18], I said to Harry there, that little shot will take us a long way.

“I’m a better putter. I’m better around the greens. I can flight my ball better in the wind. My ability to shape shots both ways,” McIlroy said about being more complete. “Yeah, I’d say those are the things. Really, I’m managing myself more around — by no means did I have my best stuff this week, but I was still able to win one of the biggest tournaments in the world. That’s a huge thing.”

A look at the strokes gained stats shows that McIlroy is “more complete” this year. While McIlroy has been heavily reliant on the driver in the past, only 40 percent of his 2.3 strokes gained per round are coming off the tee this season. That would be the lowest percentage of total strokes gained taken up by the driver in his career. During the 2019 season, which is statistically McIlroy’s best year, 46 percent of his total strokes gained came off the tee.

At TPC Sawgrass, McIlroy gained only 18 percent of his total shots off the tee (+2.63). Fifty-three percent came via approach play (+7.78), while 34 percent came with the flat stick (+4.96). He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 16th in approach and 10th in putting so far this season.

The four-time major winner has been all systems go to start the season, but only he knows if it will translate once he drives down Magnolia Lane.

Scottie Scheffler’s rust

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+460 odds-to-win for the Masters) came back from a hand injury suffered making homemade ravioli in February. He has three top-11 finishes so far this season, including a T3 at the Genesis Invitational, but it’s clear he’s not quite all the way back yet.

That’s a credit to the high bar Scheffler has set for himself.

During the week at TPC Sawgrass, Scheffler was clearly frustrated with parts of his game. He was irritable during media sessions and lost his cool a bit as his chance for a three-peat fell apart during an uneven third round.

Scheffler’s irritation with his game flared up after a missed par putt on the 17th hole. He tapped in for bogey, tossed his ball in the water, slammed his putter in his bag, and walked to the 18th tee by himself, muttering under his breath.

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During a pre-Masters conference call last week, Scheffler revealed that while he has no pain in his right hand, he is still working to get back to 100 percent.

“Just like getting the strength back in the hand and all that stuff,” Scheffler said. “Like I have absolutely no pain in the hand. But getting the full total range of motion out of my hand is a little bit of a different story. Just because you’re not able to use a certain muscle for almost a month’s time, like my hand, I wasn’t able to really use. You have to build back strength in that hand. And not being able to do the exact things that I did in the gym was a challenge as well.

“It was a pretty good chunk of time where I wasn’t able to do the things that I normally did. So when you come back, it takes a little bit of time. … I’m very structured in the way that I do things here at home. So not being able to do those things is definitely an adjustment. So, did it set me back a little bit? Maybe so. But I feel like I’m learning a lot right now, and I definitely did some things really well to start the year.”

While Scheffler has said his ball-striking isn’t up to his lofty standards, the around-the-green game has lagged in his return. So far this season, Scheffler ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach. But he ranks 41st in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens and 86th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

The two-time Masters champion hopes to sharpen things up at this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open before defending his title at Augusta.

Scheffler will always be a threat at Augusta, but his short game has to tighten up if he wants to win a third green jacket.

Two stars searching

World No. 3 Xander Schauffele (+1750 for the Masters) won two majors during a breakthrough season in 2024.

The start of this season has been different for Schauffele. He missed a month due to a rib injury and has spent his first three weeks back trying to find the swing feel that led to that success last year. This search led to hours on the range at TPC Sawgrass with coach Chris Como as Schauffele finished last among players who made the cut. Schauffele shot 77-81 on the weekend at TPC Sawgrass and is grinding to rediscover the right feel.

That search continued this past week at the Valspar, where Schauffele blew off steam after a dismal third round by blasting driver for an hour to empty out the bad swings. He embraced “dirty golf” to shoot a five under on Sunday and finish T12, but he knows there’s work to be done.

“I think I feel a little bit better,” Schauffele said Sunday. “Felt like I was kind of going to the drawing board often this week, just on sort of a feel or something to go with of the so today was the focus was kind of back to when you fiddle with your swing so much while you’re trying to compete yesterday I tried to free myself of that and started to hit some snap hooks, so that was obviously a bit concerning. Talking lot with my team and everyone that’s trying to help me on how to approach it, so the thought process was to try and get the ball in the hole and focus on that the most. Doesn’t matter if I have to play with what feels like compensation, just get it done.”

So far this season, Schauffele ranks third in approach play but is outside the top 150 in putting, around the green and off the tee. He did, however, gain over 11 shots on approach during the Valspar Championship, which was the most in his career for a single event, per the PGA Tour. A sign of progress with the Masters on deck.

Also on the hunt for his old game is Jordan Spieth, who has shown flashes of his old self after offseason wrist surgery but hasn’t been able to put it all together as he works to get the bad habits out of his swing.

“When I stand over it and I’m not trying to avoid things,” Spieth said at the Players when asked when he would be comfortable. “Instead, I’m picking a target, and I’m very confident it’s going to start on that target and move to where I want it. … I’m doing a really good job of battling it. I had to kind of rebuild stuff from a few months of nothing, and it wasn’t like I was coming back to something that was already great right before. I was in some really bad habits for a year and a half.”

Spieth gave himself a chance at the Valspar with a solid third round but could not get anything going on Sunday, finishing in a tie for 28th.

Spieth ranks 79th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 91st in Strokes Gained: Putting as he grinds to get ready for Augusta, where he almost always plays well regardless of form.

Good vibes

Ludvig Aberg (+1500 for the Masters)
Collin Morikawa (+1600 for the Masters)
Justin Thomas (+2000 for the Masters)

Aberg won the Genesis Invitational in impressive fashion. He contended at last year’s Masters before dumping one into the water on 11 on Sunday.

The young Swedish star missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass. While an MC at Pete Dye’s torture chamber isn’t a red flag, Aberg is currently ranked 102 in approach play and 140 around the green. Those strokes gained numbers were damaged by a tough showing at TPC Sawgrass, but some polishing is in order if he’s going to contend at Augusta.

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Morikawa has two runner-up finishes this season and a win should be on the horizon. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and first in approach play. Only a historic week from Hideki Matsuyama and a Henley chip-in have stopped Morikawa from an early-season win. He’ll be a hot name in two weeks.

As for Thomas, he appeared to have the Valspar won before late bogeys on 16 and 18 left the door open for Hovland to win at Innisbrook.

While Thomas hasn’t won in almost three years, he has been playing like a top-10 player for a while and is close to snapping the drought. He ranks 10th in approach play and 15th tee-to-green. The erratic game off the tee (108 in strokes gained) has been a hindrance.

“I’ll take a lot of good,” Thomas said Sunday after finishing second to Hovland. “Way, way more good than bad. I mean, today was awesome. I felt so comfortable.

“So I’m very, very proud of myself. It sucks not winning when you’re that close and have a great chance, but I just hopefully put myself in the same position in two weeks at Augusta and finish it off better.”

Bad vibes

Wyndham Clark (+7500 for the Masters)
Tony Finau (+5000 for the Masters)
Max Homa (+10000 for the Masters)

Before withdrawing from the Players with a neck issue, Clark was honest that he was still trying to recapture the joy and high-level game he showed last March before barely losing at TPC Sawgrass to Scheffler.

So far this season, Clark has one top-15 finish (the Sentry) and ranks outside the top-70 in all Strokes Gained categories except around the green (36).

While Finau has three top-15 finishes, including a T5 at the Genesis, he doesn’t rank inside the top 50 in any Strokes Gained categories and is 118 in approach play.

Homa has been in the wilderness really since he left last year’s Masters, where he had a chance to win entering Sunday. Homa hasn’t made a cut in an event with a cut since last year’s Open Championship. He is now outside the top 70 in the Official World Golf Rankings and has yet to earn a trip to the U.S. Open or Open Championship this year. He ranks 182 in approach play (-1.343 shots gained) and 97 off the tee (0.020 shots gained).

Homa is still grinding. He’s working hard to get back to being the golfer he was, but it seems far away now.

LIV check-in

Jon Rahm (+1400 for the Masters)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1900 for the Masters)
Joaquin Niemann (+3500 for the Masters)
Tyrrell Hatton (+3750 for the Masters)
Sergio Garcia (+9500)

According to Data Golf, which records Strokes Gained data for LIV events, five golfers on LIV are currently top-40 players in the world: Jon Rahm (4), Joaquin Niemann (8), Tyrrell Hatton (13), Bryson DeChambeau (15) and Sergio Garcia (27).

Niemann has won two of the first four LIV events. Garcia won at LIV Hong Kong. Hatton won the DP World Tour’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January.

Niemann is currently gaining 1.69 strokes ball striking (off the tee and approach), while Garcia is gaining 1.28. DeChambeau ranks first on LIV in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+1.55) but is losing .21 shots on approach this season. Hatton ranks 41st off the tee (-0.32). Rahm ranks fifth in SG: Tee to Green (+1.58).

All 2025 Masters betting odds as of Monday, March 24, 2025. Download the Fanatics Sportsbook app to see the full list of odds and bets for the Masters.