Do lefties at the Masters actually have an edge? Here’s what the data says

For right-handed players who favor a fade, Augusta National presents several uncomfortable tee shots. That means the opposite is true for left-handed players, seemingly baking in an inherent advantage for those able to deliver the shot shape that’s most frequently asked of them every other week on Tour.

Start with the first nine, where holes 2, 5 and 9 each move significantly right to left. On the second nine, 10 and 13 move in the same direction. Both par-3s on that side — 12 and 16 — also lend themselves to a left-handed fade.

All of this, one might presume, would help explain why, since 2003, left-handed players have won the Masters six times (Mike Weir, 2003; Phil Mickelson, 2004, ’06 and ’10; Bubba Watson, 2012 and ’14). In that same period, lefties have combined for only four wins at the other three men’s majors.

But what does a deeper data dive say? On what parts of the course are the advantages most significant for left-handers? Or, conversely, does the math not back up the long-standing theory?

We analyzed shot-by-shot strokes-gained data from every Masters from 2015 to present — including more than 3,200 rounds and 234,000 strokes — in search of meaningful answers to our question.

The data set

The left-handed rounds we analyzed come from an eclectic mix of players at different points in their respective careers, including past champions (Weir, Mickelson, Watson); major contenders and winners (Robert MacIntyre, Brian Harman); emerging stars (Akshay Bhatia); and journeymen (Ted Potter, Jr.).

While lefties account for six Masters victories in the last 23 years, they make up a relatively small percentage of the fields. Since 2015, just 4.6% of Masters rounds have been played by left-handers.

When it comes to elite players, that share is even smaller. Since 2015, less than 3.5% of left-handed entrants have been ranked in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. And just three lefties in that span have been ranked in the top 10 in the world, accounting for only 2.7% of field makeups in the selected time span. It’s important to factor in those numbers when considering that right-handed players in our study window outscored left-handed players by an average of 72.92 to 73.25.

Overall trends

Because most elite players are right-handed, it’s difficult to make broad assessments comparing the average performance of lefties vs. righties.

Off the tee, the numbers are a wash. The two groups produce almost identical overall fairway hit percentages (69.2% to 69.1%). In terms of strokes gained, left-handed players since 2015 have gained an average of 0.03 strokes per round compared to right-handed players.

What about overall approach play? Since 2015, left-handed players have had positive strokes gained approach in 52.7% of their rounds played vs. 51.3% for righties. When looking at elite-level approach performances, though, the numbers drift in favor of the bigger group of high-level righties: while 22.0% of rounds from “elite” lefties result in a full stroke gained or more with approach play, 28.6% of right-handed rounds check that box.

The more interesting data reveals itself when looking at individual holes.

Hole analysis

Statistically, some holes produce surprising results.

You’d think that the par-5 2nd hole, which features the familiar right-to-left dogleg, would favor lefties. But left-handed players make birdie or eagle about 10% less frequently than righties there since 2015. By that statistic, it’s the largest negative differential lefties experience at Augusta.

The par-4 5th hole, which also works right to left off the tee, ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of approach shot difficulty for right-handed players, with the 9th-toughest green in regulation rate since 2015. For lefties, it ranks 5th-toughest, yielding a GIR rate 4.1% lower than their right-handed counterparts.

The par-4 10th hole produces the largest green in regulation rate advantage for left-handed players. Since 2015, lefties have hit the green about 6% more often than righties.

On the famed par-3 12th, left-handed players make birdie 4% more often than righties, and the left-handed scoring average is 0.13 strokes lower than it is for righties (the second-largest advantage on the course).

No single hole has generated a larger statistical advantage for lefties than the hard dogleg-left par-5 13th. Since 2015, left-handed players have hit the 13th fairway 82% of the time, or 11.4% more than the field average. That has led to a birdie or better rate 11.5% higher for lefties than the rest of the field. The memories match the math: think of some of the incredible shots Mickelson and Watson have hit at 13.

The par-3 16th generates the largest disparity of green in regulation rate on the course. Since 2015, right-handed players hit the green in regulation at Redbud about 75% of the time. For lefties, that rate is 11% lower. A stock right-handed fade at 16 requires moving the ball over the water that sits left of the green. This wide differential suggests that righties are more prone to a conservative approach there (find the middle of the green) while lefties take on more risk (attacking the pin).

While Augusta National’s par-4 18th moves slightly left to right, lefties have a slightly higher fairway hit rate (+2.3%), green in regulation rate (+2.8%) and birdie or better rate (+0.9%) than right-handed players. Hole shape isn’t the only determining factor in these statistical differences, but it is inarguably the biggest one.

Conclusion

In broad strokes, the stats indicate that left-handed players in the Masters do not have a meaningful advantage over righties. But the course does ask different questions of the players depending on what side of the ball they stand — and in several key spots, the numbers tell you, it’s much more comfortable to be on the left side.