Justin Thomas is on the brink at the Zozo Championship.
But that’s not the question.
The question is: On the brink of what?
Is it … on the brink of his first win in 2.5 years, breaking through after a prolonged stretch of golfing misery following a PGA Championship victory in 2022 that seemed like it might vault his career into the golfing stratosphere?
Or is it … on the brink of another tough loss at the Zozo in what might be his final serious start of ’24, prolonging his winless streak into a third straight season?
We will learn the answers to these questions in the dead of night on Saturday on the East Coast of the U.S., when play at the Zozo will conclude in Japan. But for now, all we know is that the two-time major-winning Thomas is in solo second place and two shots off the 54-hole lead heading into Sunday.
So, with the spirit of optimism in mind, we’re counting down three reasons why we think he can do it — and one reason why he might not.
3 reasons why Justin Thomas might win Zozo Championship
1. His strokes gained data is unusually good
Through 54 holes in Japan, Thomas has gained more than 10 shots on the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green (10.1) — that’s the best in the field by a wide margin, and a considerable increase over Thomas’ own stats in that category throughout the ’24 season (he ranked 82nd in SG: off-the-tee, and 12th in SG: approach).
When Thomas was at the top of his powers back in ’20 and ’21 — the same seasons he briefly reached the World No. 1 ranking and collected enough trophies to build a new home — he ranked at the very top of the PGA Tour in the tee-to-green category. Now he’s back in that form, and at a golf course that seems primed for his style of ball-striking.
2. His game has been trending
No, it hasn’t been a string of wins like we’ve seen in the last several years from Thomas, but his last three months of play leading into the Zozo have showed some of his most inspired golf in recent memory, including Top 10s at both the Travelers and Tour Championship.
Add to it all that Thomas suffered a demoralizing rejection from the U.S. Presidents Cup team in the beginning of September, and you’ve got a recipe for a golfer who is meeting at the axes of motivation and recent form.
All that’s left is to put it all together when it counts on a Sunday.
3. He’s fixed one of his worst stats
Thomas actually had a pretty average statistical season on the PGA Tour in ’24, but one stat saw an unusually precipitous falloff from his early-career success: bogey avoidance. In ’24, Thomas ranks 78th on the PGA Tour in that stat, after routinely ranking in the top 20 earlier in his career.
At the Zozo, though, he ranks first in the entire field through 54 holes, with just one bogey to show for his efforts.
Of course, this might not reflect a causational change in his approach to bogey avoidance, but golfers go on heaters — and heaters often result in victories!
1 reason Justin Thomas might not win on Sunday
In the interest of balance, it’s fair to note that while Thomas will need to vanquish a familiar enemy if he’s going to win on Sunday at the Zozo: that of the late-week collapse.
JT’s game has been good enough over one, two and three rounds to find himself near or in the lead at close to a half-dozen events in 2024. He has no wins to show for it primarily because he’s struggled to maintain his performance after those high peaks. A loss on Sunday for Thomas would likely look a lot like the summer’s other near-misses, in which blow-up holes and topsy-turvy golf rule over the low-heartrate performances of earlier this week.
In other words, pay very close attention, because things could quickly get interesting.
