Tour Confidential: Biggest Masters storylines, Scottie and Rory’s chances

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss the biggest Masters storylines, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy’s chances, players who are trending, and more.

Welcome to Masters week, where we won’t see Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson but have a bunch of other storylines ready to unfold at Augusta National. What’s one you’re watching for?

Zephyr Melton, associate game-improvement editor (@zephyrmelton): Is Scottie Scheffler’s slump for real? Or has his (relatively) poor play been a simple case of early-season malaise. If he struggles to find his form at Augusta — where he’s had a boatload of success — it might be time to start ringing the alarm bells. 

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor (@JR_HIRSHey): That’s a good one Zephyr, I really like zoning in on Justin Rose this week. He’s in his mid-40s now, but yet, he comes into this week as the 7th-ranked player in the world and the most recent runner-up at Augusta. It’s incredible to think he’s now lost two playoffs at the Masters. He rebounded from a lull after his win at Torrey Pines with a T13 at the Players. Is this the week he gets a Green Jacket?

Josh Schrock, associate news editor (@schrock_and_awe): I second both of the above. Rose would be my top storyline, but I am curious to see what Brooks Koepka has in the bag next week. His major record has been poor since his 2023 PGA Championship win, but he said he fixed a putting issue that has plagued him for two years and was playing good golf until the MC in Houston. Is this the major where Brooks Koepka emerges as a threat?

Which big-name player’s recent form has them either trending or fading as the first major of the year approaches?

Melton: I’m buying Ludvig Aberg’s stock heading into Augusta. He’s been in excellent form of late, with three top 10s over his last three starts, and he’s got a great track record in the Masters, albeit in a small sample size. I like Ludvig to be a factor this week.

Hirsh: Tommy Fleetwood is my pick for this week and I think his game fits perfectly for Augusta National. As for his trends? He’s finished in the top-10 in three of his five starts this season, and while he didn’t this weekend in Texas, he was in the mix going into the weekend. I think this is his week.

Schrock: I’m buying Xander Schauffele returning as a major threat. After winning two majors in 2024, he got sidetracked by the rib injury to start last year and never seemed to get his swing right. He has been playing well of late, with the irons leading the way. I think Rose wins but I expect Xander to be a factor come Sunday.

Bryson DeChambeau won both of his LIV Golf starts prior to the Masters, and he’s finished in the top six in each of the last two years. Are you more bullish on Bryson than ever before? And is he your top pick this week among LIV players?

Melton: With Rory and Scottie having a slow start to their seasons, I’d say this is the most wide-open the race for the green jacket has been in several years — so why not Bryson? Hard not to like how he’s trending. It’ll all come down to how well he can control his distance with the irons.

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Hirsh: Yawnnnnn, no. A LIV victory just doesn’t have much credibility to me. It was a good sign for Brooks a couple of years ago when he lost to Rahm, but I just don’t see Bryson winning at Augusta. Will he contend again? Probably, but I just don’t see him winning.

Schrock: I agree with Jack. I have a hard time seeing it all come together for Bryson at Augusta. He seems to have figured things out since his MCs in 2022 and 2023, but he contended last year while being mostly unable to control the distance with his irons and he’s been talking about trying to “dial in” his wedges. I think Jon Rahm, not Bryson, is the LIV player who is in the mix at Augusta this week.

Are you taking a combination of Scottie and Rory, or the field? And why?

Melton: The field. Neither of the two top dogs have shown enough consistency so far this year for me to back them versus the rest of the field. Does that mean they won’t win? Not necessarily, but the odds favor the field. 

Hirsh: The field. Not because I don’t think Scottie and Rory won’t contend, but I’m not convinced Scheffler is comfortable with his driver based on when we saw him last (although it’s been three weeks) and that’s a pretty important club to win the Masters. Rory I expect a little more out of right now, but I don’t think either is in the world beating form they have been in the last couple years.

Schrock: I’ll take the field. Between Scottie’s un-Scottie-like iron play and Rory’s back issue, I think it’s more than likely that someone outside of the top two takes home the green jacket. I am interested to see how Rory plays now that he has finally submitted the mountain at Augusta. I think he contends, but repeating is a monumental task. I’m really not sure what to make of where Scottie’s game is right now and if the iron play is in Augusta shape. 

Last year, we asked who needed a Masters win the most, with our panel agreeing it was McIlroy. Well, now that he’s won it, who’s next on your list?

Melton: Justin Rose. He’s had one arm in the green jacket twice, yet couldn’t quite get it done. Father time may catch up soon, and his chances are running out. A green Jacket for Rose may be more meaningful than for any other player in the field. (Plus, a swing that sweet deserves more than one major on the resume.) 

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Hirsh: Tommy Fleetwood. He was the best player in the world at the end of the year last season and he’s still in great form in 2026. Time to get that major.

Schrock: Agree with Zephyr. It’s Rose. He has held the lead or co-lead at the Masters nine times after Round 1, 2 and 3. That’s third all-time after Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus. He’s -18 under par in the last 10 Masters, which ranks seventh. Five of the six players ahead of him have won jackets during that period. It’s time. 

What’s your final, parting Masters thought?

Melton: I think we’ll see a hole-in-one on No. 16 Sunday with the traditional funnel pin. 

Hirsh: I think this is the year our Alan Bastable wins the media lottery. Ever since Brooks Koepka asked him in a press conference if he had played the course, I’ve been dying to see that come true.

Melton: I second this motion.

Schrock: Ten years after his collapse at No. 12, I think Jordan Spieth holds the 54-hole lead this year and we’ll have another memorable Sunday on our hands at Augusta National.