2026 PGA Championship tiers: Contenders and players to watch

The tournament boasting the biggest field in major golf has arrived, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every player has a chance to win the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday night in Pennsylvania.

Technically, yes, everyone has a chance to win the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club this week. But the realist in us says some of the guys down at the 200,000-to-1 range might not be strong bets (respectfully).

Since an effective-yet-bland here’s the PGA Championship field article isn’t quite as fun, we’re creating some highly subjective tiers for the contenders teeing it up at the PGA this week. As for the guys omitted from this list? If one wins we’ll take our medicine and never write this sort of thing again.

On to the tiers…

One of these guys is going to win, right?

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

It might be a two-horse race. Scheffler and McIlroy have combined to win four of the last five majors. McIlroy won the Masters last month. Scheffler is defending his title at the PGA Championship. Scheffler has finished as the runner-up in each of his last three starts, a streak that started at the Masters. Rory, with that weight off his shoulders, is on somewhat of a house-money run, as he’s now collecting green jackets like elementary schoolers collect pop tabs. Don’t overthink it — one of these guys is probably going to win.

But what about this guy?

Cameron Young

OK, so maybe it’s a three-horse race. Check out this spring: Young tied for third at Arnie’s event, won the Players, tied for third at the Masters, tied for 25th at the RBC Heritage and won the Cadillac Championship. On Sunday he shot 74 — his worst round of the season — and settled into a tie for 10th at the Truist Championship. We’ll call Sunday an outlier and expect Cam to contend this week.

But what if it’s a ‘Big 4’?

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Back in 2015 and 2016-ish, there was a fun (mostly golf media) debate trying to figure out if the top tier of the PGA Tour was a “Big 3” or “Big 4” with the likes of Jordan Spieth and Jason Day and Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson and so on. This isn’t quite like that, but while Rory and Scottie are kind of in their own tier now, Fitzpatrick (along with Young) has climbed to the next rung of the ladder. Fitzpatrick tied for 52nd at the Truist, but before that he won three of his last four starts. One major title to his name seems like too little a number right now.

2 LIV players you shouldn’t forget about

Bryson DeChambeau
Jon Rahm

Boy, after last week, these guys must be thrilled to not have to be the center of attention. Both are also very good golfers.

2 ex-LIV players you shouldn’t forget about

Brooks Koepka
Patrick Reed

Koepka has won this tournament three times, while Reed has five top 20s at PGAs. We like Brooks’ outlook a little better than Patrick’s, but that’s probably exactly how PReed likes it.

The guy we are waiting for

Ludvig Aberg

He won the Genesis last year and hasn’t picked up a victory since, although check out these last six starts: T8, T4, T21, T5, T5, T3. He seems destined to pile up some victories. But how much longer do we have to wait?

A handful of really good golfers who could win

Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
J.J. Spaun

You wouldn’t be shocked if one of these guys won a major on Sunday. Four of them — sorry, Tommy! — already have major titles, although the one who doesn’t might be the guy you have the most confidence in right now.

News

8 PGA Championship storylines you need to know about

By: James Colgan

Jordan Spieth

Jordan Spieth

Welcome to his latest attempt at the career Grand Slam. He’s been good but not great this season — one missed cut but zero top 10s — although few things excite the golf world like Spieth contending on a weekend.

Other guys in good form you shouldn’t forget

Patrick Cantlay
Adam Scott
Gary Woodland

Woodland won in March and has been solid since; Scott hasn’t missed a cut all season and has mixed in seven top-25 finishes; and Cantlay has landed in the top 12 in each of his last four starts.

Other guys in semi-good form you shouldn’t forget

Corey Conners
Thomas Detry
Sahith Theegala
Justin Rose
Viktor Hovland
Hideki Matsuyama
Joaquin Niemann
Ben Griffin
Russell Henley
Alex Smalley

Too many names to dive into, but take our word for it.

European Ryder Cuppers who are intriguing

Tyrrell Hatton
Robert MacIntyre
Shane Lowry

Only one of them has won a major (Lowry) but the other guys bring some fun (fiery?) energy to major weeks. They are also good golfers.

Did they catch a heater at the right time?

Kristoffer Reitan
Rickie Fowler
Nicolai Hojgaard
Alex Fitzpatrick

Who are these four? Why it’s your top-four finishers at the Truist Championship Sunday. Alex Fitzpatrick has another shot to prove this run is no fluke (he’s been convincing so far), while Fowler, who should get more credit for this crazy run of longevity, is running out of time to snag that elusive major title.

Some other major champions we didn’t mention yet

Keegan Bradley
Wyndham Clark
Jason Day
Brian Harman

Maybe?

Players who were in good form but are now battling injuries

Jake Knapp

The good? Five top-10 finishes in nine starts this season, and he’s third in Strokes Gained: Putting. The bad? He hasn’t played in almost a month due to a nagging thumb injury. He’ll be a last-minute decision this week a well.

Some other guys with stats we like

Si Woo Kim (5th SG: Tee to Green)
Min Woo Lee (13th SG: Tee to Green)
Chris Gotterup (16th SG: Tee to Green)
Kurt Kitayama (16th SG: Tee to Green, 6th SG: Approach)
Austin Smotherman (11th SG: Approach)
Sepp Straka (13th SG: Approach)
Jacob Bridgeman (1st SG: Putting)
Akshay Bhatia (5th SG: Putting)
Sam Burns (10th SG: Putting)

Gotterup won twice in three starts earlier this year and has recorded just one top 10 since, although he has eight top 25s. His driver has been a weapon all year and he was also great with his irons and putter last weekend. A good sign going into a big week.

Long shots

Sahith Theegala (+17500)
Max Homa (+20000)
Keith Mitchell (+22500)
Haotong Li (+30000)

Because these bets feel better when they hit.