2025 Players Championship staff picks to win, sleepers to watch

The Players Championship kicks off Thursday at TPC Sawgrass, and the last handful of winners — Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy — did not lack for star power.

Does that mean another big-name player will win in 2025? Scheffler is the betting favorite having won the last two tournaments here, although he’s still looking for his first win of the season.

Scheffler, however, doesn’t think his previous wins help him much this week.

“It’s great to have won this tournament the last two years, but can I rely on some of those experiences when I step up on the first tee and give myself a little bit of confidence? Yes. If I missed the cut here last year, am I going to be like stepping on to the first tee and be like, man, I duck-hooked that one last year, I better not duck-hook it again,” Scheffler said. “Last year is last year. I’m not trying to replicate it. I’m not trying to look back on it. At the end of the day, it’s in the past.”

Scheffler is +500 to win, and Collin Morikawa and McIlroy are both +1200 to win.

Scheffler and McIlroy will be joined by Xander Schauffele in one of the marquee groupings of the first two days. That trio goes off at 1:29 p.m. ET on the 1st tee on Thursday.

The Players Championship purse is $25 million with $4.5 million going to the winner. Check out our staff picks to win and sleepers below, and here’s how you can watch the tournament this week.

Players Championship betting odds, favorites (top 10)

Scottie Scheffler (+500)
Rory McIlroy (+1200)
Collin Morikawa (+1200)
Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
Justin Thomas (+2500)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
Russell Henley (+2800)
Xander Schauffele (+2800)
Patrick Cantlay (+3300)

*See complete odds here

2025 Players Championship picks to win

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor: Collin Morikawa, +1200. I wrote Scottie Scheffler’s name like six times here, but I just can’t fathom someone winning three years in a row at TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa is hitting the ball as well as he ever has, which says something giving his prolific ball striking. I don’t expect a hangover from Bay Hill’s loss.

Jessica Marksbury, senior editor: Shane Lowry, +4000. He’s never finished better than 8th in 10 appearances at TPC Sawgrass, but I think this is the year Lowry contends. Florida golf suits him, and he’s played well for the last two weeks, finishing T11 at the Cognizant and 7th at Bay Hill. He’s a favorite but not the favorite, so he should be able to play with some freedom.

Josh Sens, senior writer: Sepp Straka, +2800. Always a great ballstriker, he finished T16 last year. This year, he comes into Sawgrass with a much-improved putting game. That bodes well for a guy who seems to be in the mix almost every time he pegs it.

James Colgan, news and features editor: Ludvig Aberg, +1600. The smart money is betting on Scottie Scheffler this week, but I’m not smart, so I’m rolling with Aberg — an uber-talented player fresh off the biggest win of his young career. The Players is a springboard into major championship glory, and this is Aberg’s year to do it.

Claire Rogers, director of social: Scottie Scheffler, +500. You know who couldn’t get the three-peat this year? The Kansas City Chiefs. You know who can? Scottie Scheffler at TPC Sawgrass. I think the World No. 1 gets it done (again). His last win was at the Hero World Challenge, which is about two years in Scottie Scheffler time. In other words, he’s due for a win this week.

Zephyr Melton, assistant editor: Scottie Scheffler, +500. I’m not going to overthink this one. Scottie may not have a win on his card this season, but he’s still the best player on the planet. Sawgrass fits his game well, and as long as he brings even his B- game, he’ll be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Nick Piastowski, senior editor: Justin Thomas, +2500. The three-year winless stretch ends here. Sawgrass demands shot-shaping, and when he’s right, JT is one of the best to do it.

Drivers

Josh Berhow, managing editor: Scottie Scheffler, +500. I didn’t want to pick him, I really didn’t, but it’s hard to ignore the guy who has won the last two who also happens to be the best player in the world and it’s not even close. He hasn’t even had his best stuff this year and has three top-11 finishes in four starts. He also has rarely crumbled under the pressure like others have. And the pressure, like always at Swagrass, will be emcee.

Dylan Dethier, senior writer: Daniel Berger, +5500. You guys are lame with your 5-to-1 favorite. Gimme Berger, who is red-hot and ready to make a splash on the PGA Tour’s biggest stage. Berger is very literally doing everything well right now, and he’ll be able to keep it in play in tough conditions; count on him to be there at the end.

2025 Players Championship sleepers to watch

Claire Rogers, director of social: Michael Kim, +6600. Kim is on an incredible run right now — five straight finishes of 13th or better, and three of those were 6th or better. (And his Twitter game is as superb as ever.) He’s on the brink of a massive breakthrough, and where better for that to happen than the Players? Kim is in the sleeper category until he gets the proper recognition he deserves. It might be this week!

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor: Ben Griffin, +10000. In Year 3 on the PGA Tour, Griffin is having perhaps the best start to a season in his young career. He’s missed just one cut and racked up three top 10s, including back-to-back T4s last month. None of his stats really jump off the board, but he’s inside the top 40 in Strokes Gained, meaning he’s got the all-around game needed to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Josh Sens, senior writer: Justin Rose, +10000. With a couple of top 10s in his last three starts, Rose has shown some good form of late. These are long odds for a gutty veteran who has the patience and iron game to plot his way around this course.

Jessica Marksbury, senior editor: Rickie Fowler, +10000. A former Players champ who played well at the Cognizant but may feel an extra bit of “prove-myself” fire in his belly after being denied a sponsor’s invitation at Bay Hill. This week would be great timing for a Fowler resurgence.

James Colgan, news and features editor: Will Zalatoris, +6600. Hey, remember him? Yeah, it’s been a minute since we heard from Will Zalatoris in a big moment, but he’s quietly piled together a series of top-25 finishes. It was just two years ago that he was everyone’s favorite choice to be the next twentysomething major winner. Now he gets a big one at TPC.

Zephyr Melton, assistant editor: Maverick McNealy, +6600. After registering his first Tour win at the tail end of the fall, Mav picked up where he left off early in 2025. He’s got three top 10s in six starts thus far this season, and he has some previous Players success, which includes a top-10 finish last year. Don’t be surprised if he contends once again this time around.

Nick Piastowski, senior editor: Sam Stevens, +15000. Instructor and analyst Mark Immelman says Stevens should be getting more love. Here’s some from me. Bonus pick: Max Homa, despite the struggles, is listed around 250-1 if low investment/big payout is your thing.

Josh Berhow, managing editor: Jason Day, +5000. He contended at Bay Hill up until a 16th hole bad-break mudball ended his tournament, and at +5000 to win this week I think you can argue him into the sleeper category. He’s had a solid and consistent season and has won here before, why not again?

Dylan Dethier, senior writer: Max McGreevy, +20000. Sure, he’s only the third-most-famous “Max” in the field, but that’s why you’re getting him at a nice price! He’s been finding his footing the last few weeks, hitting his irons great and shaping up for a potential run at contention this week. There’s some value here. I think.