2024 American Express odds: Fallen PGA Tour star’s return is our long-shot pick

daniel berger smiles in adidas had and shirt at charles schwab challenge

Daniel Berger will return to action this week at the American Express.

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images

This week the PGA Tour stays put for the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii, and we’re picking a young phenom as our long shot to win. Here’s our pick, the Sony Open odds, betting favorites and everything else you need to know.

American Express odds: Long-shot bet

For the first mainland U.S. event of the PGA Tour season, we’re turning back the clock with our pick for the long-shot of the week: Daniel Berger.

It’s possible you’ve forgotten Berger’s name — the 30-year-old fell off the face of the pro golf world in 2022 while dealing with a back injury that kept him out of play for the entirety of the 2023 season. Prior to the injury, though, Berger was one of the best players in the world, earning four PGA Tour wins between 2017 and 2021 in addition to an invite on the victorious U.S. Ryder Cup team at Whistling Straits.

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It would be a true longshot for Berger to earn a victory in his first event back in the pro ranks after some 18 months away from the sport, but a favorable Palm Springs layout and some hefty odds make him our pick for this week.

Should you place $10 on Berger to win and he comes through, you’ll earn $800. For insurance, consider placing additional small bets on Berger to finish top 10 and top 20.

Looking for more long-shot bets at the Amex? Our honorable mentions this week are two of the top finishers at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, Grayson Murray and Carl Yuan (both +15000).

American Express odds: The favorites

Sitting on top of the odds-to-win list at this week’s American Express are a host of Berger’s former U.S. Ryder Cup teammates, including the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas.

The American-heavy field hopes to deliver a proper home-soil victory for the U.S. in California. Reigning American Express champ Jon Rahm is not in the field after leaving to join LIV Golf in December.

You can see the top 12 in Sony Open betting odds as of Monday morning below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2024 American Express betting odds (Top 12 and ties)

Scottie Scheffler: +550
Xander Schauffele: +1000
Patrick Cantlay: +1000
Sungjae Im: +2000
Justin Thomas: +2500
Tom Kim: +2500
Sam Burns: +2800
Eric Cole: +3300
JT Poston: +3300
Jason Day: +3300
Min Woo Lee: +3300
Tony Finau: +3300

How last week’s long shot fared

In our first long-shot column of the year, we picked Akshay Bhatia as our longshot of the week, but it wasn’t meant to be.

Bhatia finished at 12 under, an impressive performance that left him just outside the top 20 on the leaderboard, but wasn’t enough to give us our first longshot victory of the year.


Check out how our long-shot picks have fared all season long below.

2024 The Sentry: Keegan Bradley (Odds: +6600; Finish: T45)
2024 Sony Open: Akshay Bhatia (Odds: +6600; Finish: T13)

James Colgan

Golf.com Editor

James Colgan is a news and features editor at GOLF, writing stories for the website and magazine. He manages the Hot Mic, GOLF’s media vertical, and utilizes his on-camera experience across the brand’s platforms. Prior to joining GOLF, James graduated from Syracuse University, during which time he was a caddie scholarship recipient (and astute looper) on Long Island, where he is from. He can be reached at james.colgan@golf.com.