2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble watch: Who’s in and who’s out with 18 holes to go

Hello J.J. Spaun and welcome to the bubble.

While missing the FedEx Cup Playoffs doesn’t mean losing your Tour card like it did previously, pros still have 75 million reasons to get to Memphis next week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

And with 70 players, down from 125, moving on to the first Playoff event this year, J.J. Spaun is projected as the bubble man right now.

After three rounds at the PGA Tour’s regular-season finale at the Wyndham Championship, the playoff bubble has become slightly clearer, but anything could happen over the final 18 holes. As it stands through 54 holes, the only two players to play their way into the playoffs this week happen to be the top two players on top of the leaderboard.

With one round to go in the regular season, here’s how the projected FedEx Cup standings are shaking out with several big-name pros still on the outside looking in at the coveted top 70.

Lucas Glover

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 112
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 50*
Position this week: T1

Outside the top 110 coming into the week, Glover sounded off that the top 125 should still be getting into the playoffs. His comments hold a little more weight now that he and Horschel are the only two players projected to play their way into the field in Memphis next week. The 2009 U.S. Open winner hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2018.

Billy Horschel

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 116
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 53*
Position this week: T1

Horschel has seen some of the lowest lows this season, but he can make up for it all with a win this week to catapult him into the FedEx Cup playoffs for the 11th straight year. Along with Glover, the 2014 FedEx Cup winner needs at least a two-way T2 to have a chance at moving into the top 70. A win assures it.

*Both Horschel’s and Glover’s projected standing are based on both of them winning and receiving 500 FedEx Cup points

Cam Davis

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 69
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 67
Position this week: T16

The Aussie’s omission from the playoffs would be a surprising one after recording top 10s in three of the season’s biggest events at the Players, RBC Heritage and PGA Championship. But 11 missed cuts left him with little room to spare in Greensboro. An eight-under start to the week, however, gives him a projected four-shot cushion to slip stay inside the top 70.

Vincent Norrman

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 66
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 68
Position this week: T43

One of the PGA Tour’s newest winners has a good chance to start his career with a playoff berth in his rookie season. If all players behind him don’t gain any ground, Norrman can’t play his way out of the top 70, according to ShotLink projections.

Matt NeSmith

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 65
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 69
Position this week: 72

Matt NeSmith might be next-to-last on the leaderboard this week, like Norrman, he can’t play his way out of the Playoffs unless more players behind him make up ground.

J.J. Spaun

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 67
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: *70*
Position this week: T51

Spaun enters Sunday’s final round as the bubble man but he’ll have a little breathing room. He entered the week at 67th in the standing and he holds only a nine-point lead over No. 71. However, he could finish last and still make it to TPC Southwind so long as someone behind him doesn’t gain ground.

Ben Griffin

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 68
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 71
Position this week: MC

Perhaps no one is rooting against Billy Horschel and/or Lucas Glover more than Ben Griffin (Well we hope he’s not actually rooting against them). The PGA Tour rookie and No. 68 player in the standings missed the cut this week which means if two or more players play their way in (and if No. 69 Cam Davis finishes better than 44th) Griffin is out.

Justin Thomas

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Official FedEx Cup Standing: 79
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 72
Position this week: T11

With Horschel and Glover playing well, Thomas’ playoff push got a bit harder. The good news is a third-round 66 has him T11, just one shot out of the position he currently needs to make the playoffs. With how the leaderboard is shaking out, Thomas needs a solo 9th or better to keep from missing the playoffs for the first time as a PGA Tour member.

Davis Thompson

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 75
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 73
Position this week: T21

Thompson has had a solid rookie season, including a near-miss loss to Jon Rahm at the American Express. But eight months later, he’s in a similar spot as Thomas, needing a solo 11th to make the Playoffs.

Austin Eckroat

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 70
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 74
Position this week: MC

The bubble man coming into the week, Eckroat missed the cut at Sedgefield. In fact, every player ranked 70-74 missed the cut this week. While 71-74 (Ben Taylor, Garrick Higgo, K.H. Lee, David Lingmerth) all were eliminated from the playoffs, Eckroat can still get in as long as no one plays their way in. Eckroat fans need to hope BOTH Glover and Horschel finish outside the top-2 and Thomas does not make a run.

Shane Lowry

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 76
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 78
Position this week: T51

Lowry has shockingly never made it to East Lake for the Tour Championship in his career and it doesn’t look likely to happen this year. Lowry currently needs a solo 11th to finish 70th which is seven shots away.

Michael Kim

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 91
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 80
Position this week: 6

Kim shot up the leaderboard into solo 6th with a Saturday 62, but he’ll need more Sunday to make it to Memphis. The 30-year-old has to finish solo third or better to move on.

Adam Scott

Official FedEx Cup Standing: 81
Projected FedEx Cup Standing: 84
Position this week: T34

Scott burst into the playoff conversation by grabbing the early first-round lead with a Thursday morning 65. Even-par golf since then, however, isn’t going to get the job done and Scott needs something magical and a lot of help to make the playoffs. Scott and Matt Kuchar (Who is projected No. 62) are the only two players to play in every edition of the FedEx Cup Playoffs since they began in 2007.